Over or under for Georgia Tech football? Seven wins is the bar to clear.
There hasn’t been this much optimism about Georgia Tech football since coach Paul Johnson’s triple-option offense was cutting mightier foes down to size. The sunny outlook isn’t limited to Yellow Jackets partisans. Outside observers also like Tech’s chances to win more than seven games for the first time since the 2016 team finished 9-4.
Oddsmakers are bullish on the Jackets. The over/under win total for Tech this season is set at 7½, with the over as the heavily favored side. A winning $150 bet on eight victories or more will pay about $100. A winning $100 bet on the under seven victories will pay about $130.
That’s an overdue market correction for Brent Key’s Jackets. Tech’s over/under win total for Key’s first full season as coach in 2023 was 4½. The Jackets finished 7-6. The over/under for Tech was 5½ last season. The Jackets finished 7-6 again.
Media members have come around on the Jackets, too.
Tech was picked to finish ninth in the 2024 preseason media poll and 12th in 2023. The Jackets beat those expectations by finishing fourth in 2023 and seventh in 2024. This year, media predicted the Jackets will finish fourth.
I didn’t vote in that poll, but I agree that Tech is the fourth best team in the ACC behind Clemson, Miami and SMU. Key has the Jackets on the right path. They are bringing back a lot of experienced, productive players.
Give me over 7½ victories for the Jackets. One reason for that sunny outlook: Clemson is the only team among the ACC’s top three in the media poll on Tech’s schedule. Louisville (picked fifth), Florida State (seventh) and North Carolina (eighth) also aren’t on the calendar.
The league is wide-open for the Jackets to make a big move up in the standings. If they end up disappointing, then it will be because of their defense. Tech hasn’t finished better than 64th nationally in points allowed per game since 2016.
The Jackets finished 72nd last season. That was their best showing since 2018 (79th) and significantly better than 2023 (97th), but it wasn’t good enough. Tech’s inability to get consistent stops last season was a factor in losses to Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt.
But Syracuse, Louisville and Notre Dame were hard to stop for all their opponents. The Jackets will play only two high-powered offensive teams this season, Clemson and Georgia. They just need to slow the many mediocre offensive teams on their schedule.
Defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci left Tech to take a job as linebackers coach with the Baltimore Ravens. Key replaced him with ex-Texas safeties coach Blake Gideon, who’s never run a defense. Gideon, 36, has emphasized simplifying the scheme so that his charges can play more instinctively.
He has plenty of work to do. A weak pass rush was a persistent problem for Tech in 2024 and the best lineman, Romello Height, transferred to Texas Tech. Tech’s secondary didn’t create many turnover chances in 2024. Incoming transfers should help the pass rush and secondary, but it’s difficult to predict how newcomers will perform.
Trusting Tech’s defense is hard to do given its track record. Luckily, the unit needs to be only a bit better for the team to clear the bar of eight victories. The Jackets are going to score plenty of points.
Quarterback Haynes King is no worse than the second best quarterback in the ACC. Jamal Haynes is no worse than the second best running back. Transfer wide receiver Eric Rivers can be the deep threat that Tech lacked last season. The Jackets lost a lot of players along the offensive line, but Key has created a physical identity for that group that should last beyond any personnel changes.
Tech feels like a more mature program now that it’s three years beyond the shenanigans of the Geoff Collins era. The Jackets can handle higher expectations. Proof of that: Key’s teams have cut down on their tendency to lose as favorites.
It happened twice at home in 2022: to Virginia by a touchdown when favored by 3½ points and to Miami by three touchdowns when favored by 2. The Jackets lost twice at home as favorites again in 2023: to Bowling Green by 11 points as 21-point favorites, and to Boston College by 15 points when favored by 15.
The Jackets were 5-1 as favorites in 2024. The loss was by a field goal at Syracuse as 3-point favorites. Tech will be home underdogs against Clemson and Georgia (the latter game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium). The Jackets should be favored in their other five home games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents and will have no problem beating Gardner-Webb of the Football Championship Subdivision.
So, I’m counting on Tech winning five of its seven home games. I like Tech’s chances of winning at Colorado on Friday (the Buffaloes are 4½-point underdogs). I’m marking down Wake Forest and Boston College as road wins for Tech. That would get Tech to eight wins.
Games at Duke (Oct. 18) and NC State (Nov. 1) look like toss-ups. Win one of them, and the Jackets could be in the race for the ACC championship game. They could be in control of the league by then with a victory over Clemson on Sept. 13.
That’s not an outlandish scenario. The Jackets have lost nine consecutive games to the Tigers, but Tech is 6-5 against teams ranked in the AP poll with Key as coach. That includes 6-1 mark against ranked ACC opponents.
I’m not picking Tech to beat Clemson or Georgia. I don’t see them making the ACC title game for the first time since 2014. The Jackets don’t need to do any of that to beat expectations. They just need to continue their trend of winning when expected at home and find three victories on the road.
I say the Jackets will do it. Put me down for over 7½ victories.
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