Should Braves explore Tarik Skubal trade?
Here’s a question that’ll be pertinent over the coming weeks: Should the Braves pursue a trade for all-world Tigers ace lefty Tarik Skubal?
There are myriad caveats to what we’ll discuss today. There are plenty of unknowns for all parties involved. There’s more data to collect before this becomes a serious conversation.
But this is what we do in sports, as fans and media. We speculate and consider endless possibilities and outcomes. We know it’s unlikely, but we’ll discuss it anyway.
Let’s say this is the reality come July:
— The Braves are still winning at a high clip. This seems likely. They’re running away with the National League East and haven’t even fielded their best form. They’ll be seeking enhancements for their looming playoff run ahead of the trade deadline.
— Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder are the top three in the rotation. We won’t have seen anything from recovering pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver by Aug. 3. It’d be unfair to place expectations on any of them when they do return.
— The Tigers have continued flailing. They’re among baseball’s biggest disappointments, falling far back in the American League Central. They have the talent to overcome it, and the AL is a bit forgiving, but they might’ve buried themselves too deep. The Tigers have cratered since Skubal’s absence and the speculation around him is increasing. For this exercise, we’ll say lead executive Scott Harris accepts that this isn’t their year.
— Skubal, who’s sidelined after having a loose body removed from his left elbow, makes the quick return that his agent Scott Boras has touted. MLB insider Jon Heyman reported Monday that Skubal could make a rehab appearance next week and potentially return to the majors in two weeks. That’d give him several starts to show suitors he’s healthy and himself.
In those circumstances, some will wonder if the Braves should pursue a Skubal deal. A two-time reigning Cy Young winner with a 3.06 career ERA, he’d be the best starter traded midseason since Hall of Famer CC Sabathia was dealt by Cleveland to Milwaukee in 2008.
Sabathia had a 1.65 ERA in 17 starts, delivering an all-time workhorse performance in helping the Brewers make the postseason in what’s commonly considered one of the most impactful in-season trades ever.
A Skubal trade certainly goes against how the Braves traditionally operate. It’d undoubtedly be one of the more seismic moves in their history. It will require aggression and a willingness to part with homegrown talent, but it would beautifully amplify baseball’s best team.
Skubal’s situation
The Braves would acquire Skubal knowing he’s a true rental. He’s expected to try surpassing Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324 million deal as the largest for any free-agent starter. We’re not breaking news here in saying the Braves won’t be the team signing that contract.
They could, however, be the team employing Skubal as he pursues a championship and increases his earning power with further dominance amid a pennant race. He has a 2.04 ERA in six postseason outings, and this would be another way to augment his legacy. The Braves wouldn’t need to worry about any long-term circumstances with Skubal — that’ll be for his free-agent suitors. It’s a potentially mutually beneficial relationship.
The Braves’ situation
This franchise owes it to its core, most of which is in its prime seasons, to go all-out for another championship. Factor in the likely lockout that could affect next season, along with varying contract statuses, and the Braves feel ripe for a significant move.
Outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., for instance, is only under club control for two more seasons with team options. Second baseman Ozzie Albies will be in a contract year if the Braves pick up his club option for 2027. First baseman Matt Olson turns 33 next March. Pitching ace Sale is 37 years old — and despite him pitching as if he’s 27, the reality is that he’s in the twilight of his career. The brilliant back end of this bullpen is also older with Robert Suárez, age 35, and Raisel Iglesias, age 36.
We’re in Year 9 of this fruitful Braves run. They’re looking at eight postseason appearances in those years (including this one), potentially six division titles and the 2021 World Series championship.
The 2022 and 2023 seasons ended in such disappointment. Yet 2021, with a makeshift outfield, they reigned supreme. The Braves have reminded us that October is an unpredictable beast. That doesn’t mean you cannot bolster your odds.
Imagine having the potential to start Sale and Skubal in four of seven games. Imagine their riches with Strider fully optimized alongside that duo. Perhaps Schwellenbach could help in a limited capacity by that time. Skubal, though, gives the Braves a rotation that stacks well against the Dodgers and Phillies.
The Braves have enough quality starting pitchers, if healthy, to win a championship (let’s not forget who they were forced to start in their last deep playoff run). But Skubal is a true over-the-top acquisition rather than the marginal upgrades the Braves tend to acquire. This is a chance to be opportunistic.
The landscape
The NL champion almost certainly will be favored over the AL winner if the leagues continue as they’ve been. The AL has looked extraordinarily weak.
In acquiring Skubal, the Braves would also prevent him from going to the Dodgers, Padres, Cubs or another NL contender who could seek rotation help. That’s not a reason to make a deal, but it’s a cherry on top. The Braves won’t want to face Skubal in October.
Skubal will be owed around $11 million by the acquiring team if he’s traded near the deadline. The Braves notably saved around $18 million when Jurickson Profar was suspended for the entire season. They also usually (and wisely) leave financial space for midseason moves. It wouldn’t appear Skubal’s salary would be a roadblock.
Braves history
Imagine the enthusiasm that’d permeate throughout the clubhouse, organization, fanbase and city if the Braves swung this kind of deal. It would be their most substantial midseason acquisition since Mark Teixeira, and this one wouldn’t be made from desperation. It could potentially be their most impactful in-season All-Star import since Hall of Famer Fred McGriff arrived in July 1993 (here’s hoping there won’t be any fires in the Truist Park press box upon Skubal’s arrival).
President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos was more aggressive with these types of deals in his younger Toronto days. He’d note he’s wiser from those experiences, and that creating headlines doesn’t always result in wins. He knows the objective is to get into the playoff field each year and take your chances — as the Braves have done during this era of sustained success — rather than sell out for a shorter window.
Still, Anthopoulos acquired ace David Price at the 2015 trade deadline. And he’s the same executive who was seeking a “playoff starter” last winter. He’s explored his share of gaudy trades with the Braves, even if the team ultimately resisted parting with its young talent. He’s usually been correct in that regard — remember that the Marlins wanted Acuña in a Christian Yelich deal, for instance.
Anthopoulos’ headline-grabbing deals were offseason transactions followed by extensions (Olson, Sale, Sean Murphy). His 2021 trade deadline might’ve been the best ever, but he acquired cheap rentals of little prospect cost. In other deadlines, his most notable moves were probably taking on Iglesias’ contract, inserting Mark Melancon and Shane Greene into the bullpen, and adding then-underperforming Kevin Gausman. The Braves haven’t paid expensive prospect prices during the season under his leadership.
But Anthopoulos’ restraint doesn’t mean seismic trades are an impossibility for his franchise. It’s more a testament to his discipline and feel. Sale’s addition alone should remind us that he’ll take calculated risks.
The cost
It’ll be pricey, but this is one trade that could justify that. A healthy Skubal could swing a postseason series. There will be bidders galore — the Tigers should do quite well, as Skubal will be the best starter available by far. Sandy Alcántara, Robbie Ray, Sonny Gray and Freddy Peralta are among the other trade candidates, but none would have Skubal’s effect. He’ll warrant consideration from executives of all approaches and teams of all payrolls.
What’s a fair price? The Braves have been blessed with pitching depth across the system, even if it isn’t reflected in any outlet’s top 100. They could part with two of them — whether it’s a JR Ritchie or Didier Fuentes or players who haven’t yet reached the majors like Owen Murphy.
We’ll assume they’ll deem top pitching prospect Cam Caminiti a no-go for a rental. It’d be extremely hard to part with Fuentes, who oozes upside and is already excelling in the majors.
The Braves could still trade two of their younger arms while next season returning Sale, Strider, Elder, Grant Holmes, Reynaldo López (potentially as a starter), then whomever is retained of pitchers like Fuentes, Ritchie, Murphy, Smith-Shawver and Waldrep.
One can never have too much pitching depth, but the Braves are equipped to dip into theirs to turn quantity into the most high-end quality.
The team’s best position-player prospects are in the lower levels, which might appeal less to the Tigers, who will expect a rebound in 2027 with a talented group that’s made the postseason in consecutive years.
Detroit would surely be intrigued by breakout outfielder Eric Hartman, the 19-year-old who’s surged in High-A Rome to the point he now ranks among Baseball America’s top 70 prospects. Perhaps infielder Alex Lodise, who was raking at Florida State a year ago, would be valued.
Last year’s first-rounder infielder Tate Southisene looks extremely promising. There was a lot of excitement around infielder John Gil in spring training. The Braves might not be inclined to part with any of them, particularly for a rental, but to state the obvious: You have to give to get.
They’d need to assemble a tantalizing package of probably four or so prospects to outbid other potential suitors, who could range from the resource-rich Dodgers to the trade-happy Padres to the motivated Rays and Brewers, who boast enviable farm system depth.
We won’t cobble together a trade package here. That’s up to the fans. It won’t be easy to part with some of the prospects who’d need to be included.
A question to consider: Does anyone remember who the Brewers traded for Sabathia? How about the prospects Kansas City dealt for rental ace Johnny Cueto en route to their 2015 championship?
Should the Braves do it?
The Braves’ circumstances set up nicely for this level of move. A couple obvious counters would be 1) This team seems good enough to win a championship with more modest acquisitions; 2) the Braves have sustained success largely because they’ve passed on splashier moves and retained their internal options; and 3) if they’re going to pay a premium, perhaps they should add a different player — one controllable past this season.
Ultimately, it’s unlikely. There will be so many suitors, many of whom are under leadership that’s typically aggressive and, in some cases, reckless. But it’s a rare opportunity that warrants consideration to pivot off the usual approach.
The Braves will enter October among the World Series favorites. Why not bolster your odds with arguably baseball’s best pitcher?
The one criticism of the 1990s Braves was that they “only got one.” These Braves could wind up the same. Why not take your shot here with one of the best clubs you’ve fielded over the past decade?
About the Author
Gabriel Burns is a general assignment reporter and features writer for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. After four years on the Braves beat, he's expanded his horizons and covers all sports. You'll find him writing about MLB, NFL, NBA, college football and other Atlanta-centric happenings.
