How much Election Day turnout do Republicans need to stay in the game?
Just how many Georgians need to vote Tuesday for Republicans to overcome the apparent Democratic edge in early voting?
It might be the biggest question hanging over tonight’s midterm results.
Democrats entered Election Day with a surge of momentum after record early voting drew a younger, more diverse electorate, with particularly strong participation in left-leaning areas.
That put pressure on Republicans, who had sounded alarms about sluggish participation in GOP strongholds, particularly across South and Middle Georgia, where they rely on hefty margins.
Here’s where the rubber meets the road.
More than 775,000 Georgians have cast ballots so far Tuesday, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is projecting Election Day turnout of roughly 1.4 million.
Is that enough? Republican number-crunchers are all over the map, with some guardedly optimistic and others downright despondent. But turnout of roughly 1.4 million to 1.5 million is emerging as a key benchmark in GOP models.
“If historical Election Day voting patterns hold, a 1.45 million vote turnout is a statistical dead heat,” former Georgia GOP chair David Shafer said. “Anything above that is good for the Republicans.”
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Other Republicans aren’t so sure. Several warn their party could be in for a bleak night without a late turnout surge or a surprising number of crossover voters.
And Democrats argue the shadow President Donald Trump cast over the election could scramble the usual partisan patterns. Both parties are about to find out just how much the old rules still apply.