5 questions that will define Georgia’s midterm election

Georgia voters will settle two of the nation’s most closely watched midterm elections. But the outcome will reveal plenty more than who wins races for governor and U.S. Senate.

Democrats are trying to capture a slate of other statewide offices, from lieutenant governor to schools superintendent, and win control of the utility-regulating Public Service Commission.

And Democrats have an outside shot of flipping the Georgia House and chipping away at the GOP’s majority in the state Senate.

Here are five questions we’re watching as Election Day unfolds.

1. How big is the Democratic wave — or the Republican undertow?

The real test of Democratic strength on Tuesday is how far the party’s appeal reaches beyond the race for U.S. Senate.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff enters Election Day so heavily favored that even Republicans are writing Republican nominee Mike Collins off. But Democrats need no reminder how a Senate win doesn’t always translate down the ballot.

In 2022, Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock won another term in a runoff victory while Republicans swept every other statewide office.

Will the Democratic wave stop at the top of the ticket? Or will Ossoff’s strength, a tossup race for governor and backlash to President Donald Trump carry over into seats long dominated by Republicans?

If Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and Insurance Commissioner John King struggle to win, we have the makings of a Democratic wave. Or even a wipeout.

The Georgia Legislature is another big test. Democrats need a net gain of10 seats to wrest control of the state House for the first time in more than two decades. And they’re hoping to make inroads in the state Senate.

Some of the first places to watch are the competitive races in the close-in suburbs held by GOP state Reps. Scott Hilton and Matt Reeves.

But if Democrats are making gains deeper into Republican territory, watch the more distant suburbs, exurbs and even rural Georgia.

If veteran Republican state Rep. Mike Cheokas of Americus is struggling, it could signal trouble for the GOP well beyond metro Atlanta.

2. Just how big will the Election Day electorate be?

This is the math problem keeping GOP strategists busy.

Early turnout has already made history. More than 2.8 million Georgians cast ballots before Election Day, obliterating the previous midterm record.

That has thrilled Democrats, with a younger, more diverse electorate drawn from more Democratic-leaning areas than four years ago.

Now Republicans must count on their voters showing up in greater numbers on Election Day, when the GOP traditionally has a big advantage.

Have Democrats built too big an early advantage to overcome?

While Republicans are pessimistic about the Senate race, they’re calculating what it would take to erase hypothetical early-vote deficits of 200,000 or so votes in other statewide races.

If 1.6 million Georgians vote Tuesday, Republicans would need roughly 56% to 58% of those ballots to erase that kind of deficit. Others fear turnout will be lower, meaning Republicans would need an even larger share of Tuesday’s vote.

There is another wildcard. More than 630,000 Georgians who skipped the 2022 midterm voted early this year. Even the best mathematical models can’t predict how they cast their ballots.

3. Does Georgia’s old 30-30 rule still hold?

For years, Democrats have relied on a rough formula for winning statewide: Black voters need to account for about 30% of the electorate, and Democrats need to capture roughly 30% of the white vote.

It’s known as the 30-30 rule, and it doesn’t always hold. But this election could offer another test of whether that old political calculation still applies.

Democrats like what they’re seeing so far. Black Georgians account for 32.4% of early voters, up from 30.2% four years ago. White voters make up 52.6%, down from 58.2% in 2022.

And here’s another angle: Black voter turnout is already within 7 percentage points of its level in the 2024 presidential election, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis. White turnout, by contrast, is still about 20 points behind.

The electorate is also becoming more diverse in other ways. Hispanic and Asian voters increased their shares of early ballots, particularly among newer voters.

The bigger question is whether Democrats still need to hit those traditional benchmarks or whether Georgia’s changing electorate is rewriting the political math.

4. Who’s splitting their ticket?

Georgia’s split-ticket voters have decided close elections before. They could do it again.

In 2022, roughly 200,000 Georgians voted for Republican Gov. Brian Kemp but didn’t back GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker. That crossover helped Warnock win another term even as Republicans dominated the rest of the ballot.

This year could bring a different split ticket possibility of Ossoff and Jackson splitting the verdict.

The two are both courting the same bloc of independents and moderate Republicans, and Ossoff has picked up a string of GOP endorsements to bolster his claim.

But which way will those voters break? Will more GOP-leaning voters back Ossoff than Democratic-leaning voters support Jackson? And how far apart could the Senate and governor’s races finish?

Some Republican strategists privately see a 6-point Ossoff victory as the largest margin Jackson could withstand. But if Ossoff wins by more, can Jackson still find enough split-ticket voters to pull off a victory?

5. How many Trump voters will show up without Trump on the ballot?

The president urged Georgia Republicans to “pretend” he’s on the ballot. Democrats want voters thinking about Trump, too.

That makes this election another test of Trump’s pull on Georgia voters, whether they’re casting ballots to support him or oppose him.

One group worth watching is Georgians who voted in the 2024 presidential election but skipped the 2022 midterm. How they break will showcase which party is benefiting from newly energized voters.

And keep an eye on Trump’s rural strongholds. Can Republicans turn out enough voters there to make up ground? Will Democratic areas continue to post unusually high turnout?

The suburbs could be particularly telling. Early voting surged in Democratic-leaning Cobb and Gwinnett counties, along with Republican strongholds farther north of Atlanta.