AJC poll: Bottoms, Jackson deadlocked in race for Georgia governor

Republican Rick Jackson has a staggering financial edge in Georgia’s race for governor, but Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is campaigning in a climate shaped by President Donald Trump’s tanking approval ratings.

A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows neither candidate has managed to break away in a contest for the state’s top job, the result of which will set a new political course for Georgia.

The poll puts Jackson at 46% and Bottoms at 45%, a statistical dead heat with just over two weeks until Election Day. Another 8% of likely Georgia voters remain undecided.

The results suggest both candidates head into Nov. 3 having consolidated their partisan bases. Jackson draws support from 94% of Republicans, while Bottoms receives backing from 93% of Democrats.

That means that, much like other recent Georgia elections, the contest could hinge on independents, who narrowly back Bottoms 43-38. Another 18% of independent voters are undecided, tied for the highest share of up-in-the-air voters among any of the groups surveyed in the AJC poll.

The results of the survey, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, put on display the competing forces behind one of the nation’s most closely watched races.

Jackson, a billionaire healthcare executive who spent at least $108 million of his own fortune to capture the GOP nomination, has used his vast resources to dominate television advertising and build an expansive “concierge”-style political operation.

He also has the backing of outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp, who remains one of the state’s most popular politicians, with an approval rating nearing 70% in the survey.

Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, can’t match Jackson’s spending. But she is campaigning in a political environment more favorable to Democrats, with U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff atop the ticket, growing pessimism about the nation’s direction and a president whose approval rating is mired at 41%.

The stakes extend well beyond the two candidates. Republicans are fighting to retain control of a governor’s office they’ve held since 2003, while Democrats hope to elect the nation’s first Black woman governor and capture a slate of down-ballot seats.

Black voters, long the most reliable voting bloc for Democrats, are also more energized than white voters, with 63% saying they are “very enthusiastic” compared to 48% of white voters.

Meanwhile, about one in eight likely GOP voters say they’re not enthusiastic about their preferred candidates — roughly twice the share of Democrats.

Richard Williams, a Richmond Hill retiree, considers himself an old-fashioned independent who longs for more middle-of-the-road consensus. But as he put it, “we can’t even seem to find the road anymore.”

He’s hardly enthusiastic about either candidate. But he’s backing Jackson, partly over his view of Bottoms’ record as Atlanta mayor.

“We saw what she did with Atlanta, and we all know they’re still digging themselves out of the mess she left up there,” he said. “We need more common sense, and I think Jackson has a much better mind for keeping Georgia moving forward.”

‘Keep rolling’

Jackson has a powerful counterweight to Trump’s low ratings: Kemp’s popularity.

The Republican nominee has increasingly sought to position himself as Kemp’s political heir, arguing he’s the only one who can build on the outgoing governor’s record. The new poll shows why that message could resonate.

Some 58% of voters say the nation is on the wrong track, but 52% say Georgia is headed in the right direction. Among independents, 69% believe the country is on the wrong track, compared with just 33% who say the same about Georgia.

At the same time, Jackson has tried to put some distance between himself and Trump after spending much of the Republican primary promising to be the president’s “favorite governor.”

The latest example came Monday, when Jackson’s campaign said he would skip Trump’s Saturday rally in Macon and instead serve as a “force multiplier” for Republicans at a separate event in Cherokee County.

That message resonates with Brent Taylor, a Griffin paralegal who said Bottoms’ record as a one-term Atlanta mayor sealed the decision to support Jackson.

“If we can keep rolling the way Kemp has run the state, we’ll be OK,” said Taylor. “Rick Jackson has a good plan to do that. He’s got the same heart for our state as the governor. And I’m confident he’ll keep it running like Kemp.”

Bottoms is working to make that balancing act more difficult, tying Jackson to Trump and his MAGA agenda even as the Republican portrays himself as an independent-minded outsider.

Nanette Ross, a DeKalb County retiree, said she was on the fence before the candidates faced off in a debate earlier this month. She came away impressed with Bottoms, even though she knew little about her record beforehand.