The Win Column: Fearless Falcons predictions
Hey there.
It’s me again, this time with a fancy new (newsletter) title.
Whatcha think?
READY TO RUMBLE
Falcons. Bucs. 1 p.m. Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
We are so back.
And as we enter another NFL season plump with augmented Atlanta expectations, I rounded up the crew and asked them to give me some bold predictions.
They didn’t disappoint … and were (mostly) bullish on the Dirty Birds.
🔥 Columnist Michael Cunningham likes the new guy: James Pearce Jr. will set the franchise sack record for rookies.
- Pro Football Reference credits Claude Humphrey with 11½ sacks during his rookie season (1969). But sacks didn’t become an official statistic until 1982. That means Mike Pitts holds the Falcons rookie record for sacks with seven in 1983.
“Pearce will beat that number this season. Falcons coaches obsessively focused on ‘get off’ for the team’s pass rushers during training camp, and Pearce was quickest off the line at the snap. Producing sacks requires some luck, but Pearce will convert enough of his chances to beat the rookie record.”
🔥 Tyler Estep (that’s me) expects a rebound: Younghoe Koo is gonna be just fine.
I recently caught up with the kicker, whose 2024 season involved a career-worst nine misses and a hip injury. He’s feeling just fine after a mostly normal offseason (the hip treatment didn’t eat into his regular program) and a training camp good enough to beat out German challenger Lenny Krieg.
Also: He saw the kicker from Hawaii who learned how to kick on YouTube; he thinks it’s cool. And he doesn’t usually play fantasy football … but the one time he did, he drafted himself in the first round. Natch.
May the “KOOOOOOs” rain down like thunder.
🔥 Newsletter editor Eric Mandel makes a trade: Kirk Cousins will be a starting quarterback by the end of the year.
“Too many potential contenders with subpar backup QBs for him to stay clipboarding all season. I’d expect the Rams or Vikings to come calling if injury strikes ... and I’m not exactly sold on Michael Penix Jr.’s knees, either.”
🔥 Senior sports editor Rod Beard gets to the heart of it: The Falcons will go 11-6 and win the NFC South.
“The key will be the beginning of the schedule, with tough games against the Buccaneers, at Minnesota and then in Week 4 vs. Washington. Then, there’s Week 6 vs. Buffalo on Monday Night Football followed by a Sunday night matchup at San Francisco.”
He figures 3-3 through those first six games will leave them in good shape.
“In the final 11 games, there are just two opponents (Rams and Bucs) who made the playoffs last season. Of course, that takes into account that the Falcons started 6-3 last season before a dreadful 2-6 finish short-circuited their postseason hopes. Barring significant injuries, there won’t be a repeat this year. With Penix at the helm, the Falcons’ offense should shine, and the defense will be better than last year, yielding better results.
“With a 3-3 start, the Falcons should be able to win eight of the final 11 games and reach the 11-win mark. Combine that with the Bucs’ schedule, which includes road games at Houston, Seattle, Detroit, Buffalo and the L.A. Rams, and there’s a pathway to winning the division as well.”
Pump it straight into my veins.
It’s worth noting here that columnist Ken Sugiura had a similar yet less optimistic take (he’s not so confident in the Kaleb McGary-less offensive line surviving that early stretch).
Which is fine. Maybe even the right approach! But we’re choosing positivity today.
And also kind of ran out of space.
THIS WEEK’S WILD CARD
Our friends over on the features desk delivered an important piece of news this morning: Atlanta, the city, now has its own signature perfume.
It’s called Fulton and, per the story, features “smoky notes to evoke Sherman’s burning of the city, bright citrus notes to speak to the city’s progress and optimism and even tea olive, a beloved Southern shrub.”
That first part feels a bit … on the nose.
👃 But here’s the real question: What is the scent of Atlanta sports? What does perennial disappointment mixed with the occasional Braves title smell like? Please send semifeasible ideas and good jokes to tyler.estep@ajc.com.
THE END OF AN AURA
Man, was it a wonderful weekend for college football schadenfreude or what?
Texas’ once and future Manning looked more current day Archie than prime Peyton or Eli. “Chapel Bill” Belichick, who the Falcons didn’t even want, got embarrassed in front of both his 24-year-old girlfriend and Michael Jordan.
Then there’s Alabama.
After getting manhandled by Florida State, Kalen DeBoer & Co. dropped all the way to No. 21 in the AP poll released Tuesday. Then the AJC data folks crunched the numbers — and, as it turns out, that’s the lowest ranking for the Crimson Tide since 2008.
You hate to see it.
📈 Trending in the opposite direction: Georgia Tech’s Haynes King; fourth-ranked Georgia; Carson Beck; LSU; the Army football player who literally saved a stranger from a burning car; and Kennesaw State, which is ready for Indiana after almost upsetting Wake Forest.
TJ’S EPIC TRANSFER PORTAL ADVENTURE
Buckle up, friends. We’re going on a ride.
On Sept. 25, 2021, a sophomore quarterback named TJ Finley replaced a struggling Bo Nix and helped Auburn escape what could’ve been an ugly upset at the hands of Georgia State.
Nix subsequently transferred to Oregon and became a Heisman finalist. He’s now set to begin his second year in the NFL.
Finley’s still going — but not at Auburn.
In fact, he’s now with the same Panthers program he once dispatched. And he’s made a few stops along the way.
- LSU: Even before Auburn, the 6-foot-7 native of Louisiana was in Baton Rouge. He put up inconsistent numbers across five starts in 2020.
- Auburn: Two seasons, six starts. Then back to the portal.
- Texas State: In 2023, he set the Sun Belt program’s single-season record for passing yards. Then back to the portal.
- Western Kentucky: Three starts before a leg injury ended his season. Then back to the portal.
- Tulane: Signed in December 2024, then back to the portal a few months later — after police accused him of possessing a stolen car. Finley’s attorneys argued he was the victim of a scam and, while we don’t know the specifics, the case has since been resolved.
That’s five stops — with news of the sixth arriving over the weekend, when Finley’s transfer to Georgia State prompted a guy named Brian to write this on X: “His commitment graphic is like one of those maps on the back of an RV where they add a sticker for every state they visit.”
Fact check: True.
On Monday, Panthers coach Dell McGee said Finley’s actually been in town since May.
“We were just awaiting some legal matters and then the NCAA appeal that he had to go through,” McGee said during a conference media call.
🤔 Is this what the founders intended? Nope. Not sure it does much for Finley either. But it’s plenty legal — and I’m pretty positive he’ll set some kind of record if he ends up seeing game action for the Panthers.
RECOMMENDED READS
🥹 Caitlyn Stroh-Page, the AJC’s senior editor for high school sports and college football, can’t stop talking about her South Georgia hometown. The sports won’t let her.
💪 Doctors said multiple sclerosis would send Jada Savage to the sidelines. Nope. She’s one of Georgia’s best high school softball players.
WAIT, WHO’S THAT GUY?
Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim went 2-for-4 in his Braves debut last night. You can expect him to stick around awhile.
So, uh … what’s his deal?
Long story short: He’s a banged-up 30-year-old castoff from the Tampa Bay Rays. Before that, he had some solid enough years with San Diego (2023: .260 average, 17 homers, 38 stolen bases).
The Braves are buying low and betting on a bounce back to fill a position of need — and our pal Ken senses a vintage Alex Anthopoulos move.
🪙 Tyler’s two cents: I like it. I also really like Hayden Harris, the minor league reliever the Braves just called up. He’s a keeper.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
It's like finding a new girlfriend. It's exciting. You left your old girlfriend and you got a new one. It's good vibes over here, I'm not gonna lie.
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Until next time.
About the Author
Tyler Estep hosts the AJC Win Column, Atlanta's new weekly destination for all things sports. He also shepherds the Sports Daily and Braves Report newsletters to your inbox.
