As Braves wait to put it together, this might be who they actually are

It certainly would.

After a 1-for-4 night in the Braves’ series-opening loss to the Boston Red Sox on Friday night at Truist Park, Harris was hitting .229 with an OPS of .595.

His career averages after the game were .277 and .767. His OPS was 159th out of 169 qualified MLB players and second lowest among outfielders.

His team is likewise trying to locate its stride. After Friday’s 5-1 loss, a team built to slug was decidedly average in that pursuit — tied for 15th in the 30-team MLB in home runs (59) and 17th in slugging percentage (.387)

To unlock answers, Harris has looked at side-by-side video of his present swing next to the 2023 version, when he hit .293 with an OPS of .808. He watches series of at-bats from 2023 when he was doing damage as part of that year’s historically productive Braves offense.

Credit: arvin.temkar@ajc.com

Credit: arvin.temkar@ajc.com

“I guess just seeing different pitches, different spots, how you would get to them, seeing if everything is still working the same,” Harris said.

The way out is not a clearly marked path. Listening to Harris, there might not even be a path.

“I guess it’s the hardest thing as a player, trying to find out who you were when everything was going your way — what you were feeling, what you were thinking,” he said.

Oof.

It sounds like the makings of a country music ballad.

“He’s got a couple of big hits here lately,” manager Brian Snitker said of Harris on Friday. “Like everybody else, we’re just kind of waiting for this whole group to get off at the same time pretty much. It’s encouraging to see some individuals (hitting better). We’re just kind of still waiting to put it together as a team, which allows you to get on a roll a lot of times. We’re just going to keep working to that end.”

Though Snitker’s message might have been rooted in trust in his team, it was hardly inspiring or reassuring.

It has become easier and easier to doubt that the awaited turnaround won’t come, even as the Braves labor for it and express their confidence in its eventual arrival.

Every day the paint dries slightly more, the image of this team becoming seemingly firmer.

Consider this: Remove the team’s 0-7 start and call it a meaningless outlier.

Credit: Miguel Martinez-Jimenez

Credit: Miguel Martinez-Jimenez

From April 3 (the day after their seventh consecutive loss to open the season) through Friday, they were ninth in MLB in OPS, tied for 10th in home runs, 10th in ERA and 12th in WHIP.

Their record was a corresponding 26-23. (They were 26-30 overall.)

You’d like to believe the Braves could approach the form that enabled them to be an all-time great offense in 2023. They’ve done it before, after all.

But maybe the more reasonable expectation is 2024. They did that before, too.

The Braves slugged .407 from the eighth game of the season through Friday. They slugged an MLB-record .501 in 2023, when the second-highest team was closer to the No. 16 team than the Braves.

They fell back to .415 in 2024.

Which would seem like a more probable path for the rest of this year?

In the next four months, we might well find out that this is indeed a team that is slightly above average, a standing that probably wouldn’t be good enough to make the playoffs.

Given the talent on the roster, it would constitute underachievement and would necessitate questions to be asked.

In fairness, it’s not over.

Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna and Harris were all below their career slugging percentages going into today’s game, and even if they don’t hit like they did in 2023, it’s not unreasonable to think they won’t show better.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is just getting started. Jurickson Profar is due back at the end of June from his PED suspension, though who knows how he’ll play.

Credit: arvin.temkar@ajc.com

Credit: arvin.temkar@ajc.com

The pitching has been decent. The defense has been excellent.

But, given the competitiveness of the National League, time already conspires against the Braves.

An interesting thing happened this week in the algorithms that help us understand the game.

Before last Sunday’s games, FanGraphs gave the Braves a 66% chance of making the playoffs. But after a week of piddling — five games in which they went 1-4, including a series loss at Philadelphia — the probability had dropped to 51% after Friday’s home loss to Boston.

Harris does seem to be finding, if not his best form, at least better form. Through Friday, he had hit safely in eight of the previous nine games, and he continued to defend his position like few in the game can. However, his streak of games without a home run extended to a career-long 36 games.

Is a recovery ahead for his team?

A shortage of faith is quite understandable.