Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is dominating the Democratic race for governor, but the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows the race is far from settled.

The poll released Monday showed Bottoms with 39% support among likely Democratic primary voters, far ahead of former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond at 10%, former state Sen. Jason Esteves at 8% and former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan at 7%. About one-third of voters remain undecided.

With the May 19 primary approaching, the race has hardened around Bottoms, whose high name recognition, tumultuous City Hall tenure and stint as an adviser to President Joe Biden have helped consolidate her party’s support.

But the poll also highlights the central uncertainty of the contest: Can Bottoms clinch the majority needed to avoid a June runoff?

With so many voters still undecided, how they break in the final stretch could either push her over the 50% threshold or force her into a head-to-head contest against a formidable opponent.

That leaves Bottoms in a dominant, though not unassailable, position as Democrats race to win control of the Governor’s Mansion for the first time since Sonny Perdue’s 2002 victory heralded the GOP takeover of Georgia’s government.

Her trio of top rivals, though, is running out of time to woo wavering voters and establish themselves as the clear alternative. Duncan, Esteves and Thurmond are in a tight cluster, each within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

The poll was conducted April 23-29 by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs and involved 1,000 likely Democratic primary voters.

No clear alternative

The numbers show how surprisingly little the race has shifted since the last AJC poll in October 2025. Since then, Esteves gained a bit of support while Duncan and Thurmond effectively held their ground. None, however, has yet emerged as the clear alternative to Bottoms.

In the latest AJC poll, Bottoms performs well with Black voters and older Democrats, the most influential blocs in the primary electorate. She drew 44% support from Black voters and about 42% from voters 45 and older. She also led among liberals, moderates and wealthier primary voters.

Her campaign to be the state’s first Black and first female governor has centered on an agenda to eliminate state income taxes for teachers, expand Medicaid, put casino gambling on the ballot and create a prescription drug affordability board. She’s also rolled out some important endorsements, including a flashy video highlighting Biden’s blessing.

Dailey Dodgen, a college student from Paulding County, said he was initially drawn to Bottoms mostly because he recognized her name. But after learning more about her agenda, he locked in his support.

“Democrats sometimes get a bad rap for not having strong policies,” Dodgen said. “But I am impressed by her economic plans and her stance on social issues.”

Keisha Lance Bottoms (from left), Geoff Duncan, Jason Esteves, Derrick Jackson and Michael Thurmond are vying to be the Democratic nominee for governor. (AJC; Courtesy)

Bottoms has also faced renewed scrutiny over her tenure as mayor, including the unrest during the coronavirus pandemic and the fatal shooting of 8-year-old Secoriea Turner near a hollowed-out fast food restaurant that transformed into a protest site.

Gillian Meyers said she is in the “anyone but Keisha Lance Bottoms” camp, partly because she opposes the Atlanta Public Safety Training Center that Bottoms helped champion near Meyers’ DeKalb County home.

“I’ll go vote for any other Democrat but her,” said Meyers, who works in the aviation industry. “But I haven’t decided who. I still need to do my research.”

Republican candidates for governor Rick Jackson (left) and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones speak during the Atlanta Press Club Loudermilk-Young governor debate at Georgia Public Broadcasting on Monday, April 27, 2026. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)

Her rivals have tried to argue that Democrats need a less polarizing nominee to knock off whichever wealthy Republican emerges from the MAGA slugfest between billionaire Rick Jackson and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who are neck-and-neck in the AJC’s latest poll and could square off in a June runoff.

So far, though, none has been able to make that case stick.

Thurmond’s strongest showing came among moderate Democrats, where he was at 14%, reflecting the coalition that has powered his decades in public office. He has leaned into his experience as a former state labor commissioner, school superintendent and DeKalb chief executive.

And he recently proposed to slash the state sales tax as part of a broader affordability pitch. He’s also got support from party heavyweights like former Gov. Roy Barnes and former U.N. Ambassador Andrew Young.

Esteves, a former Atlanta school board chair and state senator, performed best with liberals. His campaign has focused on his call for a multiracial candidate who can bring a generational change to Georgia politics, and he pledges to remake early education, expand healthcare access and modernize the school funding formula.

Duncan, who was elected lieutenant governor as a Republican before breaking with President Donald Trump, showed his best numbers among independents, where he was at 12%. His argument is that his political conversion and $1.7 billion affordability plan make him uniquely positioned to win swing voters who could decide the election.

But that same transformation has become one of his biggest liabilities in a Democratic primary. Some party stalwarts have questioned whether his flip is genuine, and rivals have relentlessly reminded voters of his decade-long GOP record under the Gold Dome.