Poll shows Georgia GOP voters are high on Mike Collins and Donald Trump
Today’s newsletter highlights:
- Wall Street Journal slams Burt Jones’ income tax plan.
- A Democrat was the top vote-getter in a special state Senate election.
- Emily’s List pledges to spend in Georgia’s midterms.
Senate test
A new statewide survey of likely Georgia Republican primary voters by a conservative-leaning pollster finds U.S. Rep. Mike Collins with a clear edge and a GOP electorate that is is upbeat about President Donald Trump.
The poll of 600 likely GOP primary voters by Public Opinion Strategies shows Collins is benefiting from high name recognition, with 71% aware of him, topping his GOP rivals.
Collins leads the field on a ballot test with 32%, followed by U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter at 16% and former football coach Derek Dooley at 12%. About one-third are undecided. When asked to name their second choice, voters are split.
Public polling has consistently shown Collins with an advantage over his Republican rivals, including the AJC poll back in October. But the surveys show a significant portion of voters have yet to make up their minds.
This latest poll, conducted Jan. 13–15 for Plymouth Union Public Research, has a margin of error of 4%.
It also shows Trump’s approval at 84%, including 61% who strongly approve. Voters listed pocketbook issues like taxes (20%), inflation and cost of living (19%), and the economy (18%) as their top concerns.
Pressed on the pros and cons of data centers, it found that a majority (54%) of likely GOP voters support data center construction while roughly one-third oppose it.
Notably, most (78%) say they’re more likely to support a candidate who backs guardrails for artificial intelligence.
Things to know
Good morning! Gov. Brian Kemp is headed to Belgium and the United Kingdom to meet with various companies that have a presence in Georgia.
Here are three other things to know for today:
- Activists rallied at the state Capitol on Tuesday demanding Georgia ditch its touchscreen voting system for hand-marked paper ballots. The AJC’s Caleb Groves reports there isn’t much evidence state leaders are on board this year.
- McIntosh County voters on Tuesday repealed a 2023 zoning ordinance to expand home sizes on the island, siding with the community’s Gullah Geechee residents who feared it would push them out of their homes, the AJC’s Adam Van Brimmer reports.
- Gov. Brian Kemp says Georgia will opt in to a new federal school voucher program, the AJC’s Cassidy Alexander reports.
Pooh-pooh
We already know Democrats don’t like Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ plan to eliminate the state income tax. But we didn’t expect a full-on takedown by the conservative editorial board of The Wall Street Journal.
The Journal on Monday panned the plan as both a deterrent to economic growth and a path to political instability. The plan would make the first $50,000 for individuals and $100,000 for joint filers tax-free starting in 2027. The Journal noted the plan would “reduce the incentive to work more once taxpayers hit the $50,000 or $100,000 threshold.”
Instead, the Journal backed Gov. Brian Kemp’s approach of gradually decreasing the state income tax rate until it gets to zero. Georgia’s state economist, Robert Buschman, appeared to agree. During a meeting with lawmakers on Monday, he took no position on the merits of Jones’ plan.
“If you’re asking me as an economist, I think what the governor has been doing in lowering our income tax rates slowly over time … is a better way to go,” he said.
Jones didn’t mount a full-throated defense when we asked him about it. He said “there are a number of current proposals being discussed and we continue to take ideas from all sides.” He added that he is “committed to lead the work with any members of the General Assembly to pass legislation that furthers our progress to zero.”
State Sen. Blake Tillery, a Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, was more direct.
“So a bunch of Wall Street bankers oppose our tax plan because we help the middle class too much? I’ll take that,” he said in a text message. “Georgians are tired of footing the bill for Wall Street’s tax credits. This plan is fair for every Georgia tax payer. No more picking winners and losers. This money belongs to hardworking Georgians and we’re keeping it where it belongs, in their pockets.”
GOP relief
Republicans avoided humiliation in a six-way special election for a middle Georgia Senate seat, blocking the lone Democrat from scoring an outright victory.
Democrat LeMario Brown appears headed to a runoff against Steven McNeel, a trial lawyer who finished a whisker ahead of two fellow Republicans: former Forsyth Mayor Eric Wilson and former state Rep. Lauren Daniel.
McNeel spent more than the rest of the GOP field combined and was backed by the trial lawyers still smarting over last year’s litigation overhaul.
He overcame intense incoming fire from fellow Republicans. Competitive Georgia, which supported Gov. Brian Kemp’s push to revamp the state’s civil litigation rules, spent heavily against both Brown and McNeel to boost Wilson’s bid.
Daniel, a recent transplant to the district, exceeded expectations by building her campaign partly around opposition to data centers — a message that resonated with some but fell short of getting her a spot in the runoff.
For Democrats, hopes of another upset legislative win fizzled. Despite strong early voting and help from local and national figures, Brown finished with nearly 37% of the vote and underperformed in deep-blue Bibb County.
Now comes a daunting round two for Democrats. McNeel enters the runoff against Brown with unified GOP backing in a district designed for Republicans to romp. Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte promised the party would do “everything in our power” to defeat Brown.
Georgia push
The abortion rights group Emily’s List has already endorsed former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms for governor and state Rep. Tanya Miller for attorney general. Now we know what that backing could mean in 2026.
The group today announced Georgia as a “key target” for it’s 2026 State Power Plan, a $15 million strategy to boost Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.
“Georgia is one of the few places where Democrats picked up legislative seats in 2024, and has been a long-term investment for EMILYs List as we work to flip the state House in 2026,” the group noted in a news release out this morning.
It’s not clear how much of that money will come to Georgia. The $15 million is the total for the entire plan, which also includes Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“These nine key states are places where we are already using our deep expertise and innovative tactics to recruit strong candidates and help them build strategic, winning campaigns,” the group said in a news release.
Campaign watch
State Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper is getting involved in the secretary of state’s race, endorsing state Rep. Tim Fleming, R-Covington, in the GOP primary to replace outgoing incumbent Brad Raffensperger.
Fleming is in a crowded GOP field for the job as the state’s top elections officer. In the Republican primary, he’ll face Gabriel Sterling, formerly a top Raffensperger deputy, former state Rep. Vernon Jones and Kelvin King, the husband of State Election Board member Janelle King.
Harper said Fleming “understands that fair, secure and transparent elections are the foundation of the American democracy, and I know he has the experience, integrity and leadership needed to ensure Georgians can have full faith and confidence in our elections.”
The endorsement will give Fleming access to Harper’s broad rural political network and the stamp of approval from a broadly popular statewide official. Harper may make additional primary endorsements in other races, too.
Under the Gold Dome
The Legislature is off this week. Other happenings:
- 8 a.m.: House and Senate Appropriations Committees meet to continue reviewing Gov. Brian Kemp’s budget proposal.
- 11 a.m.: “Hats on the Hill” rally at Liberty Plaza urging support for military veterans.
Listen up
Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast state Rep. Scott Hilton, R-Peachtree Corners, explains a new bill to expand Georgia’s classroom cellphone ban to high schools. Then state Rep. Stacey Evans, D-Atlanta, discusses Gov. Brian Kemp’s proposal to create a $325 million endowment supporting need-based college scholarships.
You can listen and subscribe to Politically Georgia for free an Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.
Cook’s day in court
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments this morning in the case involving Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook, the Georgia native who President Donald Trump attempted to oust last summer.
Trump justified the firing by accusing Cook, the first Black woman to serve on the Fed, of committing fraud for claiming both a condo in Atlanta and a home in Michigan as her primary residence on mortgage applications. Cook denied the allegations and refused to resign.
If the Supreme Court rules in Trump’s favor, it will give him wide leeway to control the direction of what was envisioned as an independent U.S. central banking system.
The Associated Press reported that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will attend today’s hearing. Trump recently threatened to bring federal charges against Powell months ahead of the end of his term.
Today in Washington
Happenings:
- President Donald Trump will attend the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
- The House Oversight Committee will discuss holding former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with a subpoena to testify about their dealings with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
- The Senate is out this week.
- The Supreme Court will hear arguments from attorneys for Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook, challenging Trump’s attempt to fire her.
R.I.P.
We’re sending our condolences to the many friends and family of Deputy Insurance Commissioner Steve Manders, who died last week.
Along with serving the state of Georgia for nearly four decades, Manders had a parallel career as a baseball umpire, working the College World Series three times.
In a note remembering Manders, Gov. Brian Kemp wrote, “The State of Georgia is better because of Steve’s service, and he will be missed.”
Shoutouts
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Before you go
State lawmakers are spending the week reviewing Gov. Brian Kemp’s budget proposal. Kemp showed up in person on Monday to kick off the hearings, telling lawmakers to remember the people they serve. “Every dollar we allocate is a dollar they earn, not the government,” he said.
That’ll do it for us today. As always, you can send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.
About the Authors
Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution's chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.
Tia Mitchell is the AJC’s Washington Bureau Chief and a co-host of the "Politically Georgia" podcast. She writes about Georgia’s congressional delegation, campaigns, elections and the impact that decisions made in D.C. have on residents of the Peach State.
Patricia Murphy is the AJC's senior political columnist. She was previously a nationally syndicated columnist for CQ Roll Call, national political reporter for the Daily Beast and Politics Daily, and wrote for The Washington Post and Garden & Gun. She graduated from Vanderbilt and holds a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.
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