Weekend Predictions: UGA under pressure to win first playoff game in 3 years

The Falcons will finish another losing season during the holiday weekend. At least someone in these parts is playing for major stakes.

Also, Georgia has a big game.

Weekend Prediction is feeling the pressure. I must get five of seven selections correct to avoid a fourth consecutive losing season. If I can’t do it, then that will make four losing seasons out of seven picking games against the spread.

After all these years clowning the Falcons for being losers, I’m facing the possibility that I’m also a loser. I don’t need an existential crisis to start the new year.

Sugar Bowl, College Football Playoff quarterfinal (New Orleans): No. 6 Ole Miss (+6) vs. No. 3 Georgia

Ole Miss coach Pete Golding called Georgia “the premier program in college football.” He’s right, but the label might start wearing off if the Bulldogs lose this game.

Georgia hasn’t won a playoff game since smashing TCU for the 2022 national title. Consecutive one-and-done showings for coach Kirby Smart — this time against a team that hired its coach a month ago — and there will be grumbling from constituents who expect more from college football’s highest-paid coach.

The Rebels (12-1) suffered their only loss of the season at Georgia (12-1) on Oct. 18. They led by 9 points in the fourth quarter until Georgia scored 17 consecutive points to win 43-35.

Lane Kiffin was the Ole Miss coach for that game. He’s at LSU now, but his offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis Jr., returned to Ole Miss for the CFP. I don’t think it matters who is calling the plays against Georgia’s defense.

The Ole Miss game is the last time that group looked vulnerable. The Rebels will have a much harder time scoring in the rematch. That’s why I’m taking the Bulldogs and giving the points.

Saints (+3) at Falcons

Believe it or not, the Saints (6-10) might have more reason for optimism than the Falcons (7-9). I didn’t see that coming when the Falcons were 3-2 after a victory over the Bills and the Saints were 1-5. The Falcons fell apart from there but still seemed on a better path than the Saints after winning 24-10 at New Orleans in Week 12.

The Saints lost at Miami the next week but have won four consecutive games since then. The victories were against opponents with a combined record of 18-40, but, still, this is a team that seemed destined for the No. 1 draft pick not long ago.

Jokes about the Saints ruining their chance to draft a top quarterback prospect don’t land because they might already have one in rookie Tyler Shough. The Falcons have won three consecutive games, but their young QB, Michael Penix Jr., is recovering from ACL surgery.

Bijan Robinson and a strong pass rush carried the Falcons to victory over the Rams on Monday night. They’ll use the same similar formula to cover the spread against the Saints.

Other CFP quarterfinals games

Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, Florida): No. 5 Oregon (-2½) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

Will Stein is juggling jobs as Oregon’s offensive coordinator and Kentucky’s next head coach. That didn’t seem to be a problem for the Ducks (12-1) in the first round against James Madison. They scored 44 points on offense and gained 514 yards but also surrendered 509 yards to the Dukes. Give me the high-scoring Red Raiders (12-1) and the points.

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California): No. 9 Alabama (+7) vs. No 1 Indiana

Imagine if someone told you three years ago that Alabama would be a touchdown underdog against Indiana in a CFP game. The kicker is that the Hoosiers (13-0) probably should be bigger favorites. The Crimson Tide (11-3) played their best game in a long time while winning at Oklahoma in the first round of the CFP. I think that’s their ceiling. Indiana will cover.

Other NFL games of interest

Panthers (+2½) at Buccaneers

One of these teams will back into the playoffs because the rules stipulate that NFC South winner is guaranteed a spot. The Buccaneers (7-9) have lost four games in a row and seven of eight, and Carolina’s only win in the past three weeks came against the Bucs. The funniest outcome would be for the Bucs to beat the Panthers (8-8) on Saturday, only to get knocked out of the playoffs when the Falcons beat the Saints the next day. Tampa Bay is the pick.

Ravens (-3½) at Steelers

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson’s return to practice Wednesday is big news. It increases the chance that I’ll never have to see or think about Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers again after Sunday. The losing team is out of the playoffs, and Rodgers is contemplating retirement. Jackson (back) hasn’t played since Week 15. I like the Steelers to cover.

Seahawks (-1½) at 49ers