Penix TDs, Panthers points and FGs: 3 intriguing Falcons prop bets
Greetings, folks. It’s that time again.
I nailed one of last week’s picks (under 1.5 Falcons touchdowns) and whiffed on another (Bijan Robinson carries). We’ll have to wait and see on the “Atlanta wins the Super Bowl” part.
For now, it’s on to Carolina, where the Falcons are a 5-point road favorite over the 0-2 Panthers.
Let’s discuss.
EASY: Michael Penix Jr. passing touchdowns, 0.5
Penix didn’t throw a touchdown pass on Sunday night against the Vikings, of course. With an (intentional) focus on running the ball and an (unintentional) influx of field goals, the Falcons didn’t hit the end zone at all until the fourth quarter.
That won’t happen against Carolina.
Atlanta put up exactly 38 points against the Panthers in each of the teams’ 2024 clashes. Penix threw two TD passes in that painful overtime loss in Week 18.
Carolina, meanwhile, added standout safety Tre’von Moehrig in the offseason, and their passing defense ranks 11th in the NFL through two weeks.
It doesn’t matter! Hit the over.
INTERESTING: Panthers to score 13.5 points
As mentioned above, last year’s Falcons-Panthers clashes both featured plenty of scoring. The latter put up a total of 66 points, despite not exactly being an offensive juggernaut.
And while rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan looks plenty ready to help Carolina spread the ball around, this one really comes down to one question: Are you buying in to the rebuilt Dirty Birds defense?
Sunday’s six-sack, two-interception performance — with most of the damage inflicted by rookies — certainly offers plenty of reason to do so. Then again: It doesn’t look like cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. will play, with head coach Raheem Morris deeming him “week-to-week” with a bum hamstring.
That absence feels likely to aid at least one big scoring play for Carolina … and this particular number is a little too much to stomach.
Over.
OUT THERE: Will there be a blocked field goal?
Yep, you can bet on this (with a potential +1000 payout). And while I don’t necessarily recommend it …
- Parker Romo, who got the start over the Falcons’ Younghoe Koo, is still a relatively inexperienced kicker on a new team.
- The Panthers are trotting out undrafted rookie Ryan Fitzgerald for his third career game (he’s 2-for-2 on field goals so far).
- Generally speaking, Atlanta balled out on special teams last week.
If there was ever a time to predict something like this, Sunday’s game makes a goodly amount of sense.
So why not? I’ll take the flier.
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About the Author
Tyler Estep hosts the AJC Win Column, Atlanta's new weekly destination for all things sports. He also shepherds the Sports Daily and Braves Report newsletters to your inbox.
