The stats that Ronny Deila likes, and the ones that drive him crazy

Ronny Deila said he isn’t big into statistics. He will use them to verify what he sees and feels during matches.

Deila liked seeing his team create chances during its past few matches. The stats support his gut. Atlanta United has created 42 chances in its past three matches, resulting in only five goals. The team produced 48 in the seven matches before it began clicking, resulting in seven goals. The team won only one of the matches.

“If you don’t create chances, then it doesn’t matter how much ball we have in different parts of the game,” he said. “We have to keep on producing chances, but we have to also finish them off that. That is the next step now for us to start to (win) games and get confidence because the game gets different.”

The stats that befuddle Deila, and the ones that have put the Five Stripes 14 points below the playoff line and need to turn if the team hopes to make the playoffs for the third consecutive season, are expected goals, both for and against.

By Atlanta United’s stats, it should have scored 36 goals and conceded 30. FBref.com has Atlanta United with 34.3 expected goals and 36.5 expected goals allowed. Instead, it has scored 30 and conceded 46.

“Very difficult to understand,” he said. “They score on everything they have, almost, and we don’t score on what we should have, and we should have quality to do those things.”

Those stats, the increase in chances created but not scoring, and giving up too many unexpected goals, are important factors in the last stat that stymies Deila: the team’s lack of success on the road this season.

Atlanta United’s next match is at Colorado on Saturday. Atlanta United has yet to win a road match this season, going 0-7-5. It has yet to score a goal in the first half of a road match, which seems statistically improbable. It has been shut out six times away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

“It’s so many mental things into it. I can’t explain those stats,” he said. “So these things … we need to break those barriers. The positive is that we create. The negative (is) that we are not effective enough.”

Atlanta United’s players believe they can continue the improvement they are showing. They think they can finally start putting away the chances while a rebuilt defense can keep opponents from scoring.

It’s going to take a lot of luck.

The most points Atlanta United can earn this season is 49. The Five Stripes made the nine-team Eastern Conference field last season with 40 points. Charlotte, with 43 points, was the last-place team in the nine-team field two seasons ago.