Will the Dream remain a top-five WNBA team in the second half of season?
Credit: AP
When the WNBA season tipped off in May, four teams stood out as the top title favorites, and the Dream weren’t one of them.
The Dream opened with long shot 50-1 odds to win it all. Leading the pack were the defending champs, the New York Liberty, at +230. Right behind them sat the Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces at +350, followed by the Minnesota Lynx at +400, according to ESPN Bet.
By the end of May, things shifted. The Liberty still held the top spot at +169, but the Lynx climbed to second at +308 behind Napheesa Collier’s standout play. The Phoenix Mercury jumped to +1675 after a strong start in their post-Diana Taurasi era and following Brittney Griner’s move to the Dream. The Fever sat at +395 and Seattle Storm at +1900.
Meanwhile, the Dream started to turn heads behind stars Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard, along with new additions Griner and Brionna Jones. Under first-year coach Karl Smesko, the Dream went 5-2 in May and climbed into sixth in title odds at +4950, according to Sports Betting Dime.
Now, with the All-Star break behind them and the second half underway, the Dream (14-10) sit tied for fourth in the standings with the Storm and hold the fifth-best title odds at +1800, per ESPN Bet, trailing only the Fever (+825), Mercury (+550), Lynx (+200) and Liberty (+155).
The Dream made a big statement Wednesday night, taking down the Mercury — the league’s third best team — with a 90-79 win on the second night of a back-to-back. They’ll close out their six-game trip Sunday against the league-leading Lynx.
The Dream have faced every team above them in the title odds during this current road stretch. At this point, no one’s asking whether the Dream are legit — the talent and wins speak for themselves. Now, the real question is whether Smesko’s group can keep climbing the standings, stay sharp and consistently play a full 40 minutes of team basketball over the final 20 games before the playoffs.
“Our goal is to be a complete team and be in a position at the end (of season) where we’re a very tough out in the playoffs and we have a chance to win a championship,” Smesko said after the Dream’s 79-72 loss to the Liberty on July 13. “… Each one of these (losses) is a learning experience. It makes us a little tougher for the next time.”
Dream finish first half of season on high note
The Dream closed the first half looking strong across several categories. They ranked fourth in scoring (83.8 ppg), eighth in field-goal percentage (43%), fifth in 3-point shots made (9.3) and third in 3s attempted (28.8) per contest. They also averaged 21 assists (fifth), ranked fifth in free throws made (16.0) and third in free-throw attempts (21.1).
Defensively, they led the league in defensive rebounds (28.3), ranked fourth in offensive boards (9.3), second in fewest turnovers (13.0) and fourth in blocks (4.5 per game).
The Dream’s grueling road trip
Over their past five games, however, some numbers dipped. The Dream now sit seventh in scoring (80.4), field-goal percentage (43.6%) and 3-point shots made (9.2). They’re ninth in assists (20.6), sixth in 3-point attempts (26.4), eighth in free throws made (13.6) and fourth in free-throw attempts (18.8).
Defensively, they’ve remained strong on the glass with 30.6 defensive boards (second) but their offensive rebounding dropped to 11th (6.4). Turnovers slightly increased to 13.6 (eighth) while blocks rose to 5.0 (fourth).
In their three losses during this five-game stretch, the Dream turned the ball over 14 or more times and had fewer than 20 assists each game. That included Tuesday’s 87-72 loss to the Aces, when they committed 19 turnovers and finished with only 15 assists in their first game back from the break.
They’ve also been without three-time All-Star Howard, who’s missed the past four games after suffering a knee injury in their July 11 loss to the Fever.
The Dream responded well Wednesday, beating Phoenix with only nine turnovers and 20 assists, the 16th time this season they have hit the 20-assist mark.
Credit: AP
“I just thought we were sloppy in the last game (against Las Vegas),” Smesko said after the Mercury win. “Vegas played really well, but we turned the ball over a lot. Our shot selection wasn’t good. … We kind of got that out of our system. (Wednesday), especially in the first quarter, (it) was really encouraging that the ball was moving. … getting good shots and we got off to a really good start. … I think that made a big difference.”
What’s ahead for the Dream?
The Dream play like one of the league’s top teams when they move the ball efficiently, take smart shots, attack the paint and crash the boards for second-chance points. Their defense thrives on creating steals and deflections and their bench continues to make meaningful contributions.
With Howard out for the rest of the month, the Dream must keep growing under Smesko’s system and build on their first-half momentum.
After Sunday’s game against Minnesota, the Dream will close July with their final back-to-back, facing the Golden State Valkyries at home July 29 (a team they beat July 7) and hitting the road to face the Dallas Wings on July 30.
“(It’s) challenging to win on the road and definitely to win on short rest,” Smesko said. “We’re always trying to make corrections and get better. … If you have the right attitude about making everything a learning experience, you have the best chance to be the best possible team at the end of the season.”
Griner added: “When we stick together, we really lock in (and) we hold each other accountable, we can have games like this (victory against Phoenix). … That shows a team that’s ready for the second half, ready for playoffs (and) ready to make that push.”
