Will Georgia Republicans switch parties after Democrats’ gains?

Today’s newsletter highlights:

• Brian Jack is running for NRCC chair.
• Why Stacey Evans won’t challenge Carolyn Hugley for House speaker.
• What Democrats could do with their new redistricting power.

Switching sides?

The last time Georgia politics underwent a transformation this sweeping, some lawmakers decided to change parties rather than fight the tide.

Could it happen again?

When Republican Sonny Perdue upset Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes in 2002, he helped persuade four Democratic state senators to switch parties, cementing GOP control of the chamber. Two years later, Republicans captured the House and another wave of Democratic defections followed.

Now the tables have turned.

Democrats reclaimed the state House for the first time in 22 years. And Republicans are clinging to a 29-27 state Senate majority, meaning a single party switch would leave the chamber deadlocked.

Naturally, we’ve been asking around. And so far, there’s little sign of a stampede.

One reason: The ranks of moderate Republicans have been steadily thinned by Democratic gains in the suburbs and conservative challenges within the GOP.

House Democratic leaders say they’re more focused on expanding their new majority than recruiting converts.

There’s still a chance for Democrats to pick up another seat in a Dec. 1 runoff involving Republican state Rep. Mike Cheokas of Americus, who knows something about switching sides. He was a Democrat until 2010.

Another former Democrat, longtime Republican state Rep. Gerald Greene of Cuthbert, is in danger of losing his majority-Black rural district to Democrat Harry James. Greene switched parties after the 2010 election.

Other Republicans who sometimes buck their party are probably too conservative to survive a Democratic primary.

Take state Rep. Kasey Carpenter of Dalton, who has broken with his party on immigration but otherwise boasts a solidly conservative record. An independent streak seems more likely than a Democratic conversion.

The prospects are even slimmer in the Senate, where most of the suburban Republicans who once occupied competitive districts are long gone.

We checked with state Sen. Kay Kirkpatrick, a Marietta Republican, about whether she’d consider switching parties.

“When hell freezes over,” she said.

But there’s a difference between switching parties and crossing party lines.

Several Senate Republicans have already shown an openness to Medicaid expansion. There could be room for bipartisan deals on pre-K funding, gun safety measures and other priorities championed by Gov.-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms.

And Bottoms is eager to find willing partners after campaigning on promises to reach across party lines.

“We have completed one leg of this journey,” Bottoms said Wednesday. “And the next leg will be for us to lead this state and to deliver on all the things that we have promised to do.”

Things to know

Good morning! Georgia’s legislative session starts in 67 days. Here are three things to know for today:

• Democrats have won a majority in the Georgia House for the first time in 22 years, David Wickert and Sophia Eppley report.
• Bottoms’ advisers believe Republican Rick Jackson miscalculated when he decided to hit her with a barrage of negative ads criticizing her time as mayor, Greg Bluestein reports.
• Penny Brown Reynolds won her bid for Georgia Secretary of State in a Democratic wave. Now she faces the challenging part, Caleb Groves reports.

Gavel gambit

House Minority Leader Carolyn Hugley has a clear path to becoming Georgia’s first Black House speaker.

State Rep. Stacey Evans told us she’s running for House majority leader rather than challenging Hugley for the speaker’s gavel. And we’re told no other serious challengers have emerged.

Evans has a prominent supporter in her own leadership bid: U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams. Williams recalled that she and Evans got their start in politics together as Young Democrats decades ago.

“We’re still doing that work, together, grounded in the belief that every child deserves a fair shot,” Williams said. “Stacey will bring that same commitment to serving as Majority Leader as we work to build the Georgia our children deserve.”

Senate upsets

We still don’t know what Georgia Democrats plan to do with their new majority in the state House of Representatives. But a closer look at Tuesday’s election results could offer a clue.

State Sen. Ed Setzler was one of three incumbent Republicans to lose his seat on Tuesday. He lost to Darcy Castro, who made Setzler’s work on behalf of Georgia’s 2019 anti-abortion law a key part of her campaign.

It was a key part of Setzler’s campaign, too. He labeled Castro as a “radical abortion activist,” saying she wants “to turn our state into California.” In the end, a majority of voters sided with Castro.

As Riley Bunch reported last month, Georgia Democrats have routinely tried to make abortion a key part of their campaigns — with limited success. That could be changing now that Democrats soon have a majority in the House, control of all statewide constitutional offices, and a stronger presence in the state Senate.

Redistricting

Kemp announced Wednesday that Republicans would not push forward with a plan to redraw the state’s political maps. “The voters of our state have spoken,” he said.

But what do Democrats want to do with the maps? That was the question posed to Charlie Bailey, the chair of the Democratic Party of Georgia, during a news conference Wednesday. For the first time in a generation, it will be the Democrats, not the Republicans, with the power to move forward on redistricting, even ahead of the 2030 Census. Bailey said it’s an “opportunity” to consider.

“Our maps are badly gerrymandered. We had to overcome a bad gerrymander to win the state House,” he said. “That can be fixed. We can have fair maps. The governor, Keisha Lance Bottoms, can sign those. I’m not talking about gerrymandering in our favor. I’m just talking about a straight up map.”

To Bailey’s point, Republican leaders redrew the state’s political maps in 2023, reconfiguring Georgia’s U.S. House delegation from eight Republicans and six Democrats to nine Republicans and five Democrats, with additional changes in the state House and state Senate. GOP leaders again contemplated a change to the maps in their favor this year after the U.S. Supreme Court weakened key provisions of the Voting Rights Act.

Bailey said it’s up to the incoming Democratic leaders to decide whether and how to open up the process again. “But I think that opportunity exists,” he said.

More firsts

Democrats’ sweeping wins in Georgia this week go beyond the statewide races where Black women dominated their races.

Jyot Singh won the race for House District 97 Tuesday night and will become the first Sikh and Indian American to serve in the Georgia General Assembly. Singh attended Gwinnett County Public Schools and Yale University and now lives in Peachtree Corners.

Bentley Hudgins won a state House seat in south DeKalb County to become both the first openly transgender member of the General Assembly and the first Japanese American to serve in the Gold Dome.

Hudgins, who uses they/them pronouns and identifies as nonbinary, became active in Georgia politics as the state director of the Human Rights Campaign.

Listen up

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast Bluestein and Patricia Murphy unpack the political fallout of Kemp’s decision not to call a special session before Democrats take control of much of state government.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Leadership race

Republicans will lose their majority in the U.S. House in January, and that has set off an interesting race for leadership positions that will be decided next week.

House Speaker Mike Johnson announced that he will not seek to keep his post as the top Republican. The contest for minority leader is expected to come down to Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, a conservative hard-liner, and Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise, who served as majority leader for the past few years.

Georgia U.S. Rep. Brian Jack, R-Peachtree City, is vying for a leadership position of his own: chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the party’s campaign arm for House races. He was deputy chair during the current campaign cycle and was elected Tuesday to his second term in Congress.

Jack, in a letter to fellow Republicans that a Washington Sun reporter shared on X, said that he had the right experience to unite the party and win back seats in 2028.

“After talking with many of you and reflecting on what comes next, I believe I have the right experience, strongest relationships, and the best plan to win back the House,” Jack wrote.

He outlined a plan that includes engaging with voters, recruiting better candidates and improving coordination with state parties.

So far, no other candidates for NRCC chair have announced. But others could emerge and challenge Jack on the account that he was deputy chair in a year where Republicans suffered great losses. It is also unclear whether Jack’s close relationship with President Donald Trump, including a stint as his White House political director, will help or hurt him.