Early voting surges in Georgia suburbs. Rural counties tell another story.

Georgia’s early voting surge is fueled by a growing geographic divide, with voters in metro Atlanta’s suburbs and other more populous areas casting ballots well ahead of their 2022 pace while much of rural Georgia lags behind.

According to an AJC analysis of voter participation and election results data from the Secretary of State’s Office, in the 132 counties that Republican Donald Trump carried in 2024, early turnout is essentially flat compared with the same stage of the 2022 midterms. But in the 27 counties that voted for Kamala Harris, the number of ballots cast has jumped 18%.

The Democratic strongholds of Cobb and Gwinnett counties are running about 15% ahead of the same stage of the last midterm election. The GOP bastions of Cherokee and Forsyth counties are experiencing even greater spikes.

Over in Augusta’s left-leaning Richmond County, early voting has soared 65% compared with the same point in 2022. And other important Democratic counties, including DeKalb and Fulton counties, are seeing modest gains compared with 2022.

But the picture is far different across stretches of rural Georgia, where Republicans must rely on commanding margins to counter Democratic strength in metro Atlanta. Early turnout is down by double digits in Coffee, Colquitt and Laurens counties.

More than 1.1 million Georgians have already cast ballots, putting statewide participation about 5% ahead of the same stage in 2022, according to the vote-tracking GeorgiaVotes website.

The uneven pace offers another glimpse of the electorate taking shape ahead of the Nov. 3 election, when Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican Rick Jackson for governor and Republican Mike Collins is challenging Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.

But the early figures come with major caveats.

First, they show who has cast a ballot, not which candidates are getting them. And with split-ticket voting expected to play a significant role, strong turnout in partisan strongholds doesn’t necessarily mean those voters are supporting one party down the ballot.

And the early-voting surge doesn’t necessarily mean higher overall turnout. Some Georgians may simply be voting now rather than waiting until Election Day, when more Republicans traditionally vote.

Still, the emerging patterns are drawing attention. Democratic strategist Fred Hicks said President Donald Trump’s visit last week may have cut both ways, energizing Republicans while also motivating Democrats to turn out.

There’s another intriguing wrinkle that makes reading the tea leaves more challenging: A sizable share of early voters skipped the last midterm altogether, making it harder to model how they might vote.