Offshore sports book 5dimes released its early over/under win totals for the 2015 college football season.
Georgia’s total is nine, with the over at -135 and the under at -105. For the uninitiated that means each $13.50 bet on the over wins $10 and each $10.50 on the under wins $10, so the book expects more action on the over and is charging more juice for that bet.
Georgia Tech’s win total is seven with the over at -160 and the under at +120. The book thinks the public is bullish on Tech winning at least eight.
(The win totals do not include conference championship or bowl games.)
Looking at UGA's schedule, nine wins sounds about right even if you factor in the usual hiccup by Mark Richt’s team. Nick Chubb is the third betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy, so Brian Schottenheimer’s adjustment will be eased by just handing it off to Chubb as many times as possible. UGA’s defense showed late improvement last year under Jeremy Pruitt.
The problem is that the Bulldogs play both Alabama and Auburn this season and those teams are the Nos. 1 and 2 picks to win the SEC at 3-to-1 and 4.5-to-1, respectively. Georgia is the third choice to win the league at 6-to-1, tops in the East.
A 4-0 start for UGA is a safe bet with Louisiana-Monroe, at Vandy, South Carolina and Southern U. The Bulldogs should win one of Alabama at home or at Tennessee, getting them to five wins.
I’m thinking the hiccup could come from among the trio of Missouri at home, Florida in Jacksonville and Kentucky at home. But let’s say the Bulldogs win all three, getting them to 8-1.
In that scenario the Bulldogs would need to win two of their final three games to hit the over (nine wins is a push). At Auburn obviously will be tough. Georgia Southern should be a win but the Eagles are no pushovers (their over/under win total is seven). And certainly the Bulldogs will be plenty motivated to win at Georgia Tech but the Jackets have them a quarterback and Paul Johnson always finds running backs.
As for the Jackets, with their schedule I’d be tempted to take under seven wins with +120 odds and would be nervous about giving -160 for the over.
Like Georgia, the Jackets play in the weaker of their league’s divisions and are favored to win it. But also like Georgia, the Jackets play the two best teams in the opposite division, Florida State and Clemson, and also have a game at Notre Dame.
Tech could plausibly lose all three of those games (though they do get the Seminoles at home). If the Jackets go 0-3 against FSU, Clemson and Notre Dame they’d have to find eight wins from among the other nine games on their schedule to hit get over seven wins.
Tulane and Alcorn State at Bobby Dodd are gimmes. Tech’s stiffest comp in the Coastal figures to be Virginia Tech and North Carolina and both games are at home so make those a split for four wins. Duke and Miami are not expected to be very good but those are always tricky road games so make that another split for five.
Pittsburgh and Virginia are supposed to be pretty bad so that’s two more likely wins for seven. The Jackets obviously can never bank on a victory against the Bulldogs, who will be plenty motivated to quiet the talk about that game at Sanford last fall.
(For what it's worth Georgia State's over/under total is two, which seems high for a program that is 1-23 since joining the Sun Belt, but then look at that schedule.)
It’s hard to predict in May what’s going to happen through November but that’s why you can get the best odds now. Right now I’m guessing the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2 and the Jackets go 7-5 but I wouldn’t bet on it and I'm totally not suggesting you should place a wager either way.
To see all of the college football win totals, go to this link and click the “NFL Props” box on the left of the page. I don’t know why, but that’s how you can see them.
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