Georgia Tech lost at Notre Dame on Saturday. No shame in that, even if the Jackets looked pretty bad at times in all phases of the game. They are still a good team and they still can make a run at a berth in the four-team College Football Playoff.
Yes, that's right: Win out and the Jackets should get in. No matter what happens with other top contenders, a one-loss ACC champion with victories at Clemson, vs. Florida State, vs. Georgia and against Clemson/FSU in the league title game can make a strong case for a playoff berth when the one loss is to the Irish.
Of course it won’t be easy for the Jackets, for two reasons. The obvious one is that beating Clemson, Florida State and Georgia will be difficult and they can have no other stumbles.
The other reason is that the Irish appear to only have two tough games left, vs. USC and at Stanford, and the Jackets likely would need for Notre Dame to stumble twice not only because they lost the head-to-head but because the Irish are always going to get the benefit of the doubt. Remember, the Irish had a special BCS exemption carved out for them.
With the injuries piling up for Notre Dame, depth could become a problem. The Irish certainly are vulnerable to take a loss or two. They did need a last second TD to beat Virginia, after all.
if Notre Dame obliges, Tech's playoff chances assume it will win all of the games it "should" win (which I know is a bit of a leap of faith for a team that dropped back-to-back games to Duke and North Carolina in 2014 just when it seemed to be rolling). The Jackets are favored by nine points at Duke this Saturday. They'll likely also be favored to beat North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Miami—none of those teams is ranked higher than 22nd in the F+ ratings at Football Outsiders, and three of teams are lower than 40th.
The Jackets are 17th in the ratings, down just six spots before losing to the No. 7 Irish. That shows that Tech's loss wasn't so bad as far as the schedule- and opponent-adjusted stats are concerned.
Among the other three teams on Tech’s schedule, the Bulldogs (No. 3) clearly are the best. Even if you take Greyson Lambert’s sizzling performance against South Carolina with a grain of salt because the ‘Cocks are cooked, he’s still getting valuable experience in the offense that will help him when the going gets tougher. He needs to be efficient, not spectacular, for Georgia’s Chubb-centric offense to hum.
Clemson's weakness is a relative lack of defensive depth, which plays into Tech's strength. Do the Tigers have enough bodies to deal with the triple-option? Quarterback DeShaun Watson faced his first real test against Louisville on Thursday and was hit (two nice TD passes) or miss (two bad picks and underthrowing a wide open receiver on third down, giving Louisville a final drive for chance to tie or win).
Like Notre Dame, the 'Noles have a fast and physical defense and enough bodies to deal with the option. They also have an offense that was so bad against Boston College that Jimbo Fisher is searching for answers. The offensive line is suspect, FSU seems to have no idea how to use super soph Dalvin Cook and transfer QB Everett Golson is looking as erratic for the Seminoles as he did for Notre Dame last season.
Really none of the top ACC teams have looked great on offense. My money is on Paul Johnson to get Tech’s act together before FSU and Clemson. Justin Thomas is the perfect QB for Johnson and I don’t expect him to have another bad game.
No doubt the Jackets have issues and, even if they didn’t, winning 10 in a row is difficult no matter the opponent. Doing so against a schedule that includes Clemson, Florida State, Georgia and then Clemson or Florida State again will be tough. The Jackets can do it, though, and I think that would be enough for a CFP berth.
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