5 thoughts: Falcons’ hopes, 2027 quarterback draft class
Some brief midweek thoughts as we continue through the heart of football season:
1. The Falcons are 2-4, quite alive in the NFC South race mathematically. But realistically, this feels like another year that continues the playoff drought. That said, the upcoming stretch will tell the tale.
Their next six games: vs. San Francisco; at Tampa Bay; vs. Cincinnati (in Spain); vs. Kansas City; (bye); at Minnesota; vs. Detroit. It’d be fair to consider 3-3 a massive success; the team would then be 5-7, still nowhere close to where it wants to go but likely not buried in the division.
It should be noted their schedule softens after the upcoming stretch. They have a trip to Cleveland (4-2) that’s much harder than anticipated, but they close at Washington; vs. Tampa Bay; vs. New Orleans; and at Carolina. An optimist would note getting through the next six games at 3-3 would prime them for a late-season push (or an opportunity to hurt their draft positioning).
2. We’ll dive into college quarterbacks over the next few months ahead of draft season. Unless Michael Penix Jr. emerges with consistency that’s eluded him to this point — both in play and health — the Falcons will be exploring the market again.
This quarterback class was hyped. Despite Arch Manning’s struggles, it remains a solid class, though one that lacks the premier no-doubt No. 1 guy. Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker, a true mold of clay at the position, looks like the top player thus far. Darian Mensah has been great for top-ranked Miami, but there are concerns with his arm strength. Trinidad Chambliss is remarkable, though his smaller stature and age (25 next season) will make him polarizing.
Oregon’s Dante Moore wasn’t elevating before suffering a concussion that’s sidelined him. We’ll see if CJ Carr (Notre Dame) and Austin Simmons (Missouri) enter the draft. Every relevant quarterback prospect except Chambliss and Jayden Maiava (USC) has the option of returning to school, so we’ll see how deep this group ends up being.
The Falcons should have a nice situation for their next quarterback. They’ll need to address tackle and add more receiver talent, but this would be among the better setups for a young signal caller if it reaches that point.
3. Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich deserves to be on every list of head coach candidates. He’s done excellent work — at times exceptional — with a team that completely lacked a defensive identity before his arrival. He’s revived a once moribund pass rush. His unit has 15 sacks this season despite being short-handed in edge rush. That’s five behind league-leading Detroit, which features ace pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
The bad news for Ulbrich is good news for the Falcons: Teams aren’t as inclined to hire defensive head coaches anymore. It’s a league about quarterbacks and offensive innovation. As a result, the fear of losing a good offensive coordinator to a promotion elsewhere is real. And we’ve seen the impact it’s had on franchises like the Buccaneers and the Lions.
Seattle’s Mike Macdonald found success many of his defensive peers haven’t recently. It’s bedlam for teams with defensive coaches this year. Todd Bowles (Bucs) and Dan Quinn (Commanders) are on the hottest of seats. DeMeco Ryans’ Texans have won two in a row after dropping their first four. Robert Saleh’s Titans are a rebuild but their offense has been horrific. Jesse Minter’s Ravens are 4-2 despite injuries, but head coach speculation already centers on offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, the 30-year-old wunderkind who should have his pick of jobs next cycle.
There is simply more perceived stability in hiring an offensive guru and pairing him with a good defensive coordinator. That’s the theoretical route teams have shown they prefer. So it’ll be an uphill climb for Ulbrich in the coming years. The Falcons would support his candidacy, of course, but they wouldn’t mind him sticking around either.
4. Georgia looked worn out during its game with Auburn, so the bye week comes at a perfect time. Remember when a loss like that would doom your season? The Bulldogs could afford two more in the soon-to-be 24-team playoff landscape. Of course, they could afford one more loss — maybe even two — in the 12-team outlook right now.
The Bulldogs have three ranked opponents remaining, all in a row: vs. Florida (in Atlanta), at Ole Miss and vs. Missouri. They close with a road game against South Carolina and Georgia Tech. So 10-2 with, say, a loss in Oxford would get them in. It’s certainly possible, if not likely, that they go 11-1 (that might depend on the Rebels’ continued defensive improvement). It’s understandable why folks are a bit down on them after Saturday, but that was more an aberration than a hint of what’s to come.
5. There isn’t a premier team this year. There’s no 2025 Indiana. Undefeated Miami, as good as it is, needed every yard and some questionable officiating to escape Florida State. Give BYU credit for surviving against Notre Dame (also partly because of bad officiating), but with respect, the Cougars won’t get 2019 LSU comps.
And in a year when nobody looks that much better than the field, Georgia fans should like their odds OK because they have the best coach.
Well, Curt Cignetti might argue, but he doesn’t have Fernando Mendoza under center this time. His quarterback, Josh Hoover, will probably be among the most determining figures in the College Football Playoff. But we’ll get more into that as it approaches.