Still want Arch Manning to Falcons? Looking at QB prospect’s midseason status.

There was an expectation that Texas quarterback Arch Manning would parlay his late surge last year into a masterful 2026 season that’d rank him near the top of every draft board in spring.

Instead, Manning has experienced another topsy-turvy season. He’s one of the most polarizing prospects in the sport. It’s unclear if he’ll enter his name into the 2027 draft, and his status will be highly debated if he does.

It’s a relevant discussion for the Falcons, who could be among the leading quarterback seekers this offseason if Michael Penix Jr. doesn’t show enough promise. Faith in Penix seems to fluctuate by the week, so it’s fair to consider the Falcons quarterback needy until he shows more.

As such, fans have kept their eyes on collegiate signal-callers. There’s no player who’s generated more conversation than the one in Austin, Texas.

A look at Manning

Stats: 10 touchdowns, five interceptions, 1,122 yards, 63% completion percentage.

Manning was handed the keys to a Maserati, but he’s driving it like a Prius. There are questions about coach Steve Sarkisian’s quarterback development, justifiably, but Manning has undoubtedly underwhelmed for a player who’s spent several seasons in the system and is blessed with an abundance of high-priced talent around him.

One would like to see Manning process faster. He doomed his team against Oklahoma with two interceptions, including a backbreaker at the end. He needs a better understanding of how to weigh risk versus reward; Manning is selectively aggressive, which can be a good quality if he picks the right times and delivers the right throws.

He’s a true work in progress in that respect.

Now, some criticism of Manning has gone too far. He still has the size. He’s a quality athlete. He has a good arm. He isn’t scarce of wow-worthy throws. He seems to be a well-respected teammate.

There’s a real toolbox here that hasn’t been fully utilized. Those arguing his first-round merits will cite what’s yet to be unlocked.

It’s just the consistency of it all and the disappointment that he isn’t as far along in his development as many would’ve hoped. He doesn’t always look naturally comfortable playing the position, at least not to the extent one would want in a top prospect.

The accuracy can be sporadic. He’ll stare down targets. Sarkisian is considered an offensive guru, but his quarterback looks in need of more coaching.

The Longhorns’ unreliability hasn’t helped.

They spent lavishly to equip Manning with a fearsome run game, but the talent injection hasn’t translated into a team strength. The offensive line likewise lacks consistency which has contributed to Texas’ frustrations in sustaining drives. Cam Coleman has the expected flashes of greatness, but he hasn’t dominated as hoped and the passing game as a whole hasn’t functioned to potential.

Sarkisian has resisted hiring an offensive play caller, but one must wonder if Texas will force his hand in the offseason assuming this situation doesn’t drastically improve.

It’s increasingly conceivable that Manning, whose circumstances are obviously different from the average quarterback prospect, could return to school again in 2027 for development’s sake. He looks like he’d benefit from more collegiate snaps. Many of his weaknesses can be improved through experience, which is encouraging (but not guaranteed).

But the questions here aren’t physical.

It’s worth noting Manning turns 23 in April, so he’d be a 24-year-old rookie if he forgoes the draft until 2028. That’s the same age Penix was, and his age was an oft-cited element of his evaluation.

How it relates to the Falcons

If they determine Penix isn’t their franchise quarterback, they’ll be seeking a player who stabilizes the position and, ideally, elevates others around him. Manning might one day develop into that type of signal caller, but he doesn’t look like that now.

And if he enters the 2027 draft, he likely won’t be considered the top quarterback. Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker is gaining momentum in that race.

There’s much to be determined here, from the Falcons’ performance to Penix’s to Manning’s, but the once-alluring idea of a Manning saving your franchise needs to be set aside.

The reality is that while he could be a good professional quarterback, he’s raw and needs a lot more refinement. He shouldn’t be criticized for expectations placed on him because of his name, but from a pure draft-discussion standpoint, one would like to see more from a touted quarterback armed with future NFL teammates.

Manning could even end up a better pro than college player, but he’s a tough evaluation right now.