Matt Ryan’s job much harder after John Harbaugh picks Giants over Falcons
New Falcons president of football Matt Ryan got lucky that John Harbaugh became unemployed at the same Ryan was looking for a new head coach. A longtime losing franchise got the chance to court a coach with a Super Bowl and several division titles on his resume.
Even luckier for the Falcons is they are closer to being a playoff team than any of the other teams who were pursuing Harbaugh. That’s one reason I believed they had the best job to offer Harbaugh, who interviewed with the Falcons on Jan. 12.
Harbaugh didn’t see it that way, as he agreed to a deal with the Giants on Saturday, beating out the Falcons and several other teams who were interested in Harbaugh.
The Falcons won’t get their home-run hire — if there even is such a thing, considering all the variables involved in coaching success. No one could have predicted that first-time head coach Dan Quinn would lead the Falcons to a Super Bowl in Year 2 after he coordinated a talent-rich defense in Seattle.
The Falcons got that hire right. They got it wrong with Arthur Smith and Raheem Morris. Hiring Harbaugh would have been an easy decision for Ryan in his first front-office job. Now, Ryan will have to hire a much-less-accomplished candidate than Harbaugh while competing with a horde of other NFL teams.
That doesn’t mean that Ryan won’t find the right coach.
Missing out on Harbaugh does make Ryan’s task much harder. It also highlights the risk of the Falcons letting Morris go after two seasons.
They had good reasons to make that move, but it’s possible they won’t find a better coach during this cycle. Ryan’s task is complicated by the fact that he also must hire a general manager whose vision meshes with the new coach.
The Falcons so far have announced interviews with eight other candidates for head coach. Three have been NFL head coaches: Mike McDaniel, Kevin Stefanski and Antonio Pierce. Only McDaniel (35-33) has a winning record. The other five candidates are NFL coordinators.
Ryan will have to do some digging to figure out why the tenures of McDaniel, Stefanski and Pierce went sour and then decide if any of them can do better with the Falcons. Ryan will have to determine whether an assistant responsible for one unit of a team can successfully lead the entire group, as Quinn did for the Falcons when Ryan was the quarterback.
McDaniel successfully made the transition from offensive coordinator to head coach in 2022. Coach Kyle Shanahan called the plays for the 49ers, but he credited McDaniel with helping the team develop a strong running game. The Dolphins made the playoffs during McDaniel’s first two seasons as coach after they’d missed the postseason for five consecutive years.
But the Dolphins had a 15-19 record over the past two seasons. They slipped after adding several offensive stars hand-picked by McDaniel. Ryan is familiar with McDaniel from his time as a Falcons offensive assistant when Ryan played quarterback, so at least Ryan has firsthand knowledge of his work.
Stefanski’s time with the Browns followed a similar pattern as McDaniel’s tenure in Miami. Cleveland ended a 17-year playoff drought during Stefanski’s first season. That Browns team won a wild-card playoff game at Pittsburgh before losing a close divisional game at the Chiefs, who went on to win the AFC.
The Browns followed that breakthrough with two consecutive losing seasons. They returned to the playoffs in 2023 but were routed by the Texans in a wild-card game. The Browns had an 8-26 record with Stefanski over the past two seasons.
It’s hard to know how much blame Stefanski deserves for the losing, given the overall state of Cleveland’s organization. The Browns are weighed down by quarterback Deshaun Watson’s contract after making the worst trade in NFL history.
The Raiders had a 5-4 record in 2023 with Pierce as interim head coach. He kept the job for the next season but was fired after Las Vegas finished 4-13. Pierce currently is a studio analyst for CBS, where Ryan worked before the Falcons hired him.
The other five Falcons candidates are coordinators: Anthony Weaver (Dolphins, defense), Klint Kubiak (Seahawks, offense), Aden Durde (Seahawks, defense), Jeff Hafley (Packers, defense) and Jesse Minter (Chargers, defense). Kubiak and Minter have produced the best on-field results among that group.
Kubiak, a son of Super Bowl-winning coach Gary, calls the plays for Seattle’s No. 3 scoring offense. Minter is defensive coordinator for the Chargers, who have ranked first and ninth in points allowed during his two seasons.
It’s up to Ryan and his staff to decide whether any of those coordinators are ready to be NFL head coaches, and if McDaniel or Stefanski can get back to winning. Then Ryan will have to convince his preferred candidate that Atlanta is the right place to be successful.
Ryan never got Harbaugh in the building to make his pitch. The Falcons conducted a remote interview with Harbaugh on Monday. Harbaugh met in-person with Giants officials Wednesday and, according to ESPN, the two sides started negotiating a contract that same night.
I thought the Falcons had the best job to offer Harbaugh. We’ll see what Harbaugh says about why he picked the Giants over the Falcons and other suitors. His decision made Ryan’s first big call as president of football much harder.
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