Michael Penix’s season is over before Falcons know if he’s the answer

FLOWERY BRANCH — If everything went as planned for the Falcons, then Kirk Cousins would be leading them to a second consecutive playoff appearance this year. If not, then Michael Penix Jr. would be the quarterback taking them to the postseason this year.

Worst case: Penix shows enough as a starter in 2025 to ensure the Falcons that they can win with him over the long term. Cousins serves as a competent, if overpaid, backup.

Now the Falcons find themselves in a scenario that’s even worse than the worst case.

Penix will have season-ending surgery to repair what the Falcons said is a partially torn ACL that he suffered during Sunday’s loss to the Panthers. The only good news is that it’s the opposite ACL that Penix tore twice during college. Cousins will be the starter for the rest of the season after he wasn’t good when subbing for Penix during Week 8 or Sunday.

The Falcons (3-7) are finished for this season, anyway. The bigger issue is that Penix hasn’t proved over 12 starts that he can be a consistently good NFL starter, much less the franchise quarterback, and now he will have to recover from ACL surgery for a third time.

“Tough injury that he’s got to go through again,” Falcons coach Raheem Morris said Wednesday. “He’s dealt with it. But (from) what we know of Mike and all the stuff that we’ve done from our research from all the injuries, he’s come back stronger. We feel really confident that this will be the same way.”

That’s a plausible outcome. Penix made himself into a top draft prospect after suffering four season-ending injuries during college (twice to his right knee, and once to each shoulder). Penix could come back from his latest season-ending injury and show that the Falcons finally found the guy to follow Matt Ryan as a successful, long-term starter.

It also could end up being the case that Penix’s body won’t allow him to reach his full potential. At season’s end, Penix will have missed 11 of a possible 20 starts for the Falcons. He also may not be ready for the start of the 2026 season, and he’ll have to get back up to speed whenever he comes back.

Morris said he’s not sure about Penix’s timeline, though he added that the reports are positive from physicians who’ve examined him.

“I’ve got nothing but confidence in Mike bouncing back and doing the things what he needs to be able to get there,” Morris said.

The Falcons can’t count on that happening next season. They kept Cousins around as the highest-paid backup quarterback in NFL history because they didn’t have any other good choices.

This offseason, they’ll need to sign a veteran who gives them a chance to win if Penix isn’t ready.

“That (offseason plan) is always something that has got to be on your mind regardless, but it definitely puts it on your mind a little bit more with this injury,” Morris said.

The Falcons were hoping it wouldn’t come to this when they drafted Penix No. 8 overall in 2024. I thought Penix was worth the risk despite his injury history. For one thing, his last season-ending injury happened in 2021 at Indiana. He made every start over two seasons for Washington.

That’s when Penix showed his potential to become a good NFL quarterback. We’ve seen flashes of it. Penix’s arm talent and intangible attributes are off the charts. The passing accuracy is a work in progress, though Penix’s intended targets have let him down at times.

Durability was the potential downside of drafting Penix. He sat out during Week 8 because of what the Falcons said was a bone bruise in his left knee. Now Penix is out for the season after apparently getting injured on a hit by Carolina safety Tre’von Moehrig (it appeared Penix may have been hurt before the collision).

It’s the other ACL this time, but the same body. Soon after drafting Penix, general manager Terry Fontenot said the Falcons “felt good” about his ability to stay healthy based on reports from the team doctors who examined him. Morris said that view hasn’t changed.