Weekend Predictions: Another trifecta for Georgia, Georgia Tech, Falcons
They say you can’t win ‘em all. They don’t say you have to lose in embarrassing fashion. That was a problem for both the Falcons and Weekend Predictions last time out.
My awful week of picking games against the spread included backing the Falcons as road favorites and watching them fail to score. It was a humbling experience for them and me. My record is still (barely) above water, so at least I’m still better off than the Falcons (1-2).
Commanders (-1½) at Falcons
Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was bad against the Panthers. Afterward, coach Raheem Morris said he never worries about Penix’s confidence. The next day, Morris said Penix wasn’t his “normal, happy, competitive self” during the game. Somebody in the building needs to figure out what’s going on with Penix and help him get over it quickly.
Morris fired wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard this week. Play-caller Zac Robinson will come down from the booth for this game. Those are cosmetic changes for an offense with deeper issues. But Washington’s long injury list includes two defensive backs and quarterback Jayden Daniels. That pushed me over the edge to pick the Falcons and think positive thoughts to flush those ugly images from Carolina.
No. 17 Alabama (+3½) at No. 5 Georgia
There’s sentiment among Georgia students to make this a blackout game. There’s resistance from UGA fans old enough to remember the last blackout game against Alabama, a 41-30 UGA loss in 2008. Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer needs to pull a power move by wearing his black hoodie for this game. The Tuscaloosa News reports that DeBoer is 10-2 when wearing it on the sidelines, and 1-3 without it.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart said the Bulldogs shouldn’t have won at Tennessee. He had a point. Per ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s formula, the Bulldogs had the lowest win expectancy (23.8%) of all Football Bowl Subdivision teams that won in Week 3. Georgia got lucky, but quarterback Gunner Stockton made winning plays. I’m picking the Bulldogs to cover based on my belief that Stockton’s game is still growing.
No. 16 Georgia Tech (-13½) at Wake Forest
Wake Forest’s Dave Clawson was among the coaches who quit their jobs while citing distaste for the transfer portal and NIL (coincidentally, all of them were facing more losing). The Deacons replaced Clawson with Dave Dickert. He somehow won eight games at Washington State last season as the program wandered the conference realignment wilderness.
Wake didn’t score during the second half of a home loss to NC State on Sept. 11. The defense appears to be much better after it was atrocious in 2024. I’m thinking that Dickert, an ex-defensive coordinator, used the bye week to come up with a good plan to limit Tech’s explosive plays. Jackets win, but Deacons cover as big home underdogs.
Middle Tennessee (+7½) at Kennesaw State
I abandoned Kennesaw State just in time for the Owls to play their best game of the season to beat Arkansas State. You’re welcome, KSU fans. The Owls (2-2) already matched their win total from last season. I think this line is too high, though. Give me Middle Tennessee with the points.
Other college games of interest
No. 1 Ohio State (-8½) at Washington
There are some things we know for sure about coach Ryan Day. He loses to Michigan often. He loses to Oregon sometimes (just not in the postseason). But Day doesn’t lose to other Big Ten teams (48-0) and he doesn’t lose after bye weeks (10-0). This is Day’s first game against Washington. The Huskies will cover behind a big game from quarterback Demond Williams Jr.
No. 6 Oregon (+3½) at No. 3 Penn State
The Ducks routed Oklahoma State, Northwestern and Oregon State. Beating Power 4 foes badly always counts for something. There was a time when I’d go against Penn State coach James Franklin as a favorite in a big game, but he shed some baggage as an underachiever with last year’s run to the College Football Playoff semifinals. Also, Ducks coach Dan Lanning hasn’t been good as an underdog (1-3-1 ATS). Penn State is my pick.
No. 4 LSU (+1½) at No. 13 Ole Miss
ESPN produced a feature on Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin’s transformation from “punk kid” to “elder statesman.” Kiffin says he gave up alcohol and is more focused on spending quality time with his kids. Good for him. This game will be the start of LSU coach Brian Kelly’s inevitable slide from undefeated to four losses. I like Ole Miss to cover.
No. 8 Florida State (-7) at Virginia
Maybe Clemson misses ex-coordinator Tony Elliott after all. It didn’t seem that way when Elliott’s Virginia teams produced weak offensive numbers while the Tigers scored lots of points. Now, Clemson’s offense is a mess while using lots of holder players and the Cavaliers are scoring 46 points per game with a lot of transfer players. I like Virginia as a strong home underdog.
Auburn (+6½) at No. 9 Texas A&M
Auburn had a chance to win at Oklahoma despite allowing 10 sacks and getting hosed by officials in the 24-17 loss. The SEC said that “appropriate accountability will be applied” for the blown call “without additional comment.” I suppose it’s inappropriate to announce the punishment for a blown call that gifted the Sooners a touchdown in a close game. I’m backing the Tigers to cover.
Other NFL games of interest
Panthers (+5½) at Patriots
Falcons wide receiver Drake London on the worst part of the loss to the Panthers: “Goose egg. You never want to see that.” You never want to watch it, either. The Patriots aren’t good, but they don’t have to be to handle the Panthers. I’m not buying that Carolina’s victory over the Falcons was evidence of real improvement. The Pats are the pick.
Saints (+16½) at Bills
The Saints looked like an overmatched college team against the so-so Seahawks last week. That explains this point spread. Per Odds Shark, from the start of the 2020 season through Week 3 this year only 16 NFL teams were underdogs of 16 points or more. The Bills needed a late field goal to beat the downtrodden Dolphins by 10 points at home last week. I say Buffalo covers the spread this week with a more focused effort.
Last week: 3-8. Season: 22-22.
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