Falcons defense shows promise, but placing stock in it is a risky play

This is not to say the Falcons defense will be able to carry the banner as the offense figures things out.

Even after an impressive showing against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night, this isn’t even to say it can.

But with the offense having yet to function at close to full capacity, it is to say the defense might be required to make the attempt.

This isn’t what might have been reasonably expected, what with the offense of coach Raheem Morris being stocked with first-round picks across the field, including quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and a player who Morris on Wednesday called the best player in the game (running back Bijan Robinson).

“There’s no doubt about it,” Morris said.

That a defense was ineffective enough last season to have necessitated the dismissal of its coordinator (Jimmy Lake) and has consistently been unable to disrupt opposing quarterbacks could be called on to be the stronger unit — that didn’t seem like the Falcons’ path to scraping enough wins together to end their seven-year playoff drought.

But consider this: In two games, the Falcons defense has done enough for the team to be 2-0 rather than 1-1. In two games, the defense of new coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has allowed 458 yards and 29 points. Before this season, the last time the Falcons managed to do better in both categories in back-to-back games was the 2011 season, according to Stathead. That’s a long time.

The Falcons’ six-sack game against the Vikings was their first since a win over Indianapolis late in the 2023 season.

So, maybe?

“You kind of felt it that first week: how we were going, how we were rushing the quarterback,” Morris said. “Obviously, Baker (Mayfield of Tampa Bay) made some phenomenal plays and changed that game (the season opener), right? But you felt the guys coming. You felt the intensity. You felt the ability to stop the run. You felt the pressure. You felt us getting around the quarterback.”

There are reasons to like what Ulbrich’s defense has put on display. Rookie edge rusher James Pearce Jr. looks like he could be legitimate trouble as a pass rusher. The play of rookie defensive backs Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman Jr. thus far suggests they could be — of all the identities a Falcon could possess — draft steals. New linebacker Divine Deablo has playmaking ability.

And now, the caveats.

The six sacks against the Vikings were impressive and undoubtedly cathartic for legions of Falcons fans accustomed to opposing quarterbacks throwing leisurely from airtight pockets.

But, of the six, two of them were enabled by apparent pass-protection breakdowns that allowed Falcons defenders an unencumbered path to quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Another two arguably were the product of McCarthy’s hesitation as much as the Falcons’ pressure. One of them was against a backup offensive tackle who does not appear to have starter-level ability.

One of them, though, was impressive — defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus and Pearce won their one-on-one matchups with explosiveness to bring down McCarthy.

As far as the yardage/points totals in back-to-back games being the lowest since 2011, that factoid might be more encouraging for this defense’s prospects if the Falcons’ 2011 defense had been a collection of turnover-forcing bullies.

Which is to say, maybe these Falcons are a similarly decent defense that has played especially well for two games, one of them abetted by an overwhelmed quarterback and raggedy offensive line.

It doesn’t mean the Falcons defense can’t continue to deliver winning performances in coming weeks — after Carolina, the Falcons will be at home against Washington — as the offense finds its footing.

But counting on it to do so might be a bit of an ask, and possibly being without cornerback A.J. Terrell (hamstring) doesn’t help. Expecting the results of two games to serve as a trustworthy baseline might be the errand of the exceedingly optimistic. You likely know this is a franchise with a six-decade record of failing to reward hope.

For instance, a year ago, stock was placed in a new head coach and defensive coordinator. Two years ago, it was a defensive line fortified by Calais Campbell and David Onyemata. Neither became defenses of substance.

Buying low on the Falcons often leads to selling even lower.