Weekend Reflections: Braves still can’t be trusted

After sweeping the Mets, the Braves were 10 games behind in the National League East and 5½ off the pace for the third NL wild card. At the end of the weekend, the Braves were 11 games back in the East and seven games back in the wild card. The Marlins had won one of their previous seven series. They found their winning touch when the Braves came to town.

The Braves decided they didn’t need Spencer Schwellenbach to best the Marlins. Manager Brian Snitker didn’t say that, but it was the implication of the team’s moves. The Braves reshuffled the rotation so a 20-year-old would make his first start. Schwellenbach was lined up to face the Mets on Monday instead of the Marlins on Sunday.

That move seemed too risky to me. Extra rest for starters is a good thing, but the Braves can’t pick and choose who starts when. They needed to sweep the Marlins. Instead, they lost the series opener and the finale when the starters weren’t good enough. At least the Braves can count on solid work from Grant Holmes.

Didier Fuentes did fine in his MLB debut. But four runs allowed in five innings were too many, considering the offense backing him. The Braves would have had a better shot with Schwellenbach as the starter. Then again, their relievers gave up two more runs in the 6-2 loss, so maybe it wouldn’t have mattered who started.

Starter Bryce Elder was tagged for five runs while twice giving back early leads in the finale, a 5-3 loss. Elder is giving the Braves as much as could be reasonably expected. Sunday’s start was only his second in 16 days. Elder wouldn’t even be part of the rotation if not for injuries to Reynaldo Lopez and AJ Smith-Shawver.

The Braves saved Schwellenbach for the first of four scheduled games against the Mets at Citi Field. However, their plan to line up their top three pitchers for the series went up in smoke because …

… Chris Sale is on the shelf again

Sale suffered fractured ribs while diving for a ground ball during the ninth inning of his scoreless outing against the Mets on Wednesday. He’ll be out indefinitely. The plan is for Fuentes to take his place in the rotation. The bad luck means the Braves are downgrading from a Cy Young winner to a rookie who just got to the big leagues.

I’ve seen some chatter on social media from Braves fans who blame Snitker for Sale’s latest injury because he sent him out for the ninth inning with a 5-0 lead. They should simmer down. Sale’s pitch count was above 100, but the Braves already had planned for an extra rest day. No harm in granting Sale’s request for a chance to finish the game. Snitker couldn’t know he’d lay out for a grounder.

Sale’s body let him down again. He suffered a stress fracture of his rib cage during 2022 spring training that kept him out through July 12. Sale broke a finger on a comebacker seven days later. A broken wrist kept him out for the rest of that year, and a shoulder injury sidelined him for two months in 2023.

The Braves ended up cashing in on Sale’s bad injury luck. The Red Sox picked up $17 million of his $27 million salary in 2024 to facilitate a trade. Sale was fantastic for the Braves last season, but back spasms prevented him from starting a must-win game on the final day. He also wasn’t available for the wild-card series.

Now Sale is on the injured list again. It’s not Snitker’s fault, but it’s a huge setback.

Dream are back on track

The Dream led host New York by 17 points with 14 minutes to go Tuesday. They lost 86-81. That wasn’t ideal but, hey, they are still developing chemistry. The Liberty are the best team in the Eastern Conference. But three days later, the Dream allowed Washington to go on a 10-0 run in the final six minutes before holding on to win 92-91.

Those late-game fades were front of mind Sunday. The Dream were down four points to another team below them in the standings, Chicago, with nine minutes left. This time, the Dream responded with a strong finish. They made six 3-pointers in the fourth quarter, two by reserve Te-Hina Paopao, and pulled away to a 93-80 victory.

It was a good win for the Dream (10-4), but they still need to tighten up their defense. New York, Washington and Chicago collectively scored 47% of their points in the paint. Rim protection wasn’t the main issue. The Dream offered little perimeter resistance on drives and entry passes, especially against Washington (52 points in the paint).

The Dream rank next-to-last in the WNBA in points in the paint allowed per possession. They’ve still managed to rank seventh in defensive efficiency. The Dream are the league’s most efficient scoring team. They’ll be great if they can limit the easy baskets.

Hawks can’t copy Thunder’s title formula

The Thunder beat the Pacers in Game 7 of the NBA finals Sunday night. This is a time for the league’s other 29 teams to look at the champs and see what they can copy. The Hawks, however, aren’t in position to mimic the Thunder, who took the traditional tanking route to win a title.

The Hawks tanked before and hit on Trae Young but missed on three other lottery picks. Now, the Hawks don’t control their own first-round pick until 2029. Tanking again isn’t an option, unless they could get a haul for Young similar to what OKC did for Paul George (they wouldn’t) and hit on some of the multiple draft picks they got in return.

The Thunder traded George for prospect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and five first-round draft picks. So far, they’ve hit on only one of the four picks they’ve used (Jalen Williams) but “SGA” developed into a star while his team was terrible for two years. Then the Thunder hit again in the draft lottery with No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren.

OKC’s core won 40 games two seasons ago, 57 last year and 68 this season before breaking through for a title. They needed some luck, as all champions do. Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton played through a calf strain in Games 5 and 6. Then he suffered an apparent Achilles injury early in Game 7 and didn’t return.

Tanking is hard. It takes a toll on a team’s culture. The payoff isn’t guaranteed. The Hawks own picks Nos. 13 and 22 in Wednesday’s draft via trades. Maybe they won’t need to tank if they get lucky with those picks, or trade up for a better one.