Democrats reserve $20 million in TV ads to back Jon Ossoff’s reelection bid

Today’s newsletter highlights

• Democrats are heading into Tuesday’s primary with turnout bragging rights.
• No surprises so far following Brian Kemp’s signing of the “Epstein amendment.”
• Burt Jones says he’s “not playing for overtime” in the GOP governor’s race.

Early ad blitz

U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff speaks during Georgia Service Academy Day at Marietta's Dobbins Air Reserve Base in March. (Ben Gray for the AJC)

U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff hasn’t done much campaigning while the Republicans who hope to challenge him bicker among themselves ahead of Tuesday’s primary. But the Democratic Party’s campaign arm for U.S. Senate races isn’t waiting.

The Senate Majority PAC today announced it has secured $20 million in TV advertising slots backing Ossoff’s reelection bid.

The Republican race will likely extend into June as U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley compete for GOP votes.

Meanwhile, the Democrats’ TV buy make them poised to defend Ossoff’s record or attack his opponent once the general election campaign is underway. Plus, the spending will increase when digital advertisements are added in.

“It doesn’t matter which Republican wins their primary — Carter, Collins, and Dooley are all the same: Trump loyalists who’ve never put Georgia first a day in their lives,” Senate Majority PAC spokeswoman Lauren French said in a statement. “Jon Ossoff does. He’s focused on expanding care for veterans and lowering costs for families crushed by this economy, and come November, voters will reelect him to Congress.”

Georgia is one of a handful of states where Senate Democrats are either defending vulnerable incumbents like Ossoff or looking to flip seats currently held by Republicans.

Senate Majority PAC has also announced the following investments on those states:

• $10.6 million in Alaska.
• $13.4 million in Iowa.
• $33.4 million in Maine.
• $20 million in Michigan.
• $31.4 million in North Carolina.
• $46.4 million in Ohio.

Things to know

Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms speaks with voters at the Columbus Public Library last week as part of her final statewide push ahead of the Democratic gubernatorial primary election. (Riley Bunch/AJC)

Good morning! Here are three things to know for today:

• Primary elections in Georgia are usually fairly predictable. Not this year, writes Greg Bluestein.
• Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms may be the front-runner in the Democratic race for governor, but many of her former colleagues at City Hall have yet to line up behind her, the AJC’s Riley Bunch reports.
• Gov. Brian Kemp on Friday extended the gas tax holiday for another two weeks as summer travel season is about to kick off and motorists deal with the highest fuel prices in four years, the AJC’s Amy Wenk reports.

Voting blue

People are seen walking toward Bessie Branham Recreation Center in Kirkwood on Friday during the final day of early voting before the midterm primary elections. (Miguel Martinez/AJC)

Democrats are heading into Tuesday’s primary with turnout bragging rights thanks to a surge in voter participation.

With early voting over, more than 1 million Georgians have already cast ballots, a 19% jump over the same point in the 2022 midterm primary.

But the number cheering Democrats is the ballot split: nearly 582,000 voters, or 57%, picked Democratic ballots, compared with about 428,000, or 42%, who chose Republican ballots. The rest chose nonpartisan ballots.

Democrats see the numbers not only as a sign of enthusiasm, but also as fuel for potential upsets in the judicial races at the bottom of the ballot that will be decided Tuesday.

The party has gone all-in behind Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, who are trying to oust Georgia Supreme Court Justices Charlie Bethel and Sarah Warren. If either wins, it would mark the first time in more than a century that a sitting Georgia Supreme Court justice lost a reelection bid.

There are caveats. Turnout is high in deep-blue counties such as Clayton, DeKalb and Fulton, but also in parts of the Atlanta exurbs and rural districts with competitive GOP contests, including open U.S. House seats.

Still, Democrats see a sign of energy at a moment when their statewide ticket needs it. Nearly one-third of early voters, about 325,000 people, didn’t vote in the 2022 midterm at all. That includes more than 130,000 Black voters, a bloc Democrats have worked to re-energize since 2020.

“People are tired of Donald Trump and Republicans ruining our economy and making us work harder just to make ends meet,” former state Sen. Jason Esteves, a Democratic candidate for governor, said at a weekend campaign event.

Republicans are sounding alarms of their own, with GOP pundits and organizers warning about Democratic turnout and urging conservatives to vote. Alex Johnson of the far-right Georgia Republican Assembly sent an appeal to members warning that “insiders” win when grassroots voters stay home.

“The people who want to keep grassroots voters quiet show up,” he wrote. “So we have to show up too, and don’t get distracted by whoever spent the most money on their campaign.”

No surprises

The "Epstein amendment" was an issue during the Republican debate for lieutenant governor last month. (Courtesy of the Atlanta Press Club)

When Kemp signed a law ordering the disclosure of any sexual harassment settlement involving state lawmakers, the political world braced for bombshells.

But 372 open records requests later, we can report that no settlements exist.

State officials made us file separate open records requests for each lawmaker, past or present, dating back to 2019. Senior AJC data editor Charles Minshew automated the process, firing off an email every eight seconds. But the responses were all the same.

The Senate sent a single statement saying no records existed. But the House sent 284 emails over the course of 11 hours on Friday to say the same thing.

Interestingly, officials with the state Senate told us sexual harassment settlements involving senators have been public record for the past 35 years. Still, they asked every current and former living senator to disclose any settlements they had. None did.

It makes us wonder why there was so much drama around passing this law, which Capitol insiders dubbed the “Epstein amendment.”

Hubris or confidence?

Republican candidate for governor Burt Jones, Georgia's lieutenant governor, at President Donald Trump's rally in Rome this past February. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)

Most candidates in Tuesday’s crowded primaries are refreshingly blunt about their chances. They’re playing for a runoff. Not Burt Jones.

The lieutenant governor, locked in a tight GOP race with billionaire Rick Jackson and polling well short of the 50% mark, says he’s aiming to end it Tuesday.

“We’re planning on winning Tuesday,” he told Fox News in Ellijay. “I’m not playing for overtime here. We feel like we’ve got the momentum and I feel like we can win it on Tuesday if everything falls in place.”

Confidence? Expectation-setting? Maybe both. And he’s sticking with that argument.

Jones said it again in Suwanee over the weekend: “I’m not playing for overtime. I’m trying to finish the drill.”

Jackson’s campaign, meanwhile, is preparing for the more likely scenario. It has already mapped out a mega-media buy for a runoff starting Wednesday.

Bunker mentality

Republican candidate for governor Brad Raffensperger, Georgia's Secretary of State. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)

Some State Election Board members want to keep an eye on the secretary of state’s office on election night. But Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who is also a Republican candidate for governor, won’t let them in, spurring an election-eve fight over transparency.

Jones asked Attorney General Chris Carr, who is also running for governor, to weigh in on whether the secretary of state is violating his obligations as the state’s top election official.

U.S. Rep. Clay Fuller, R-Rome, said he’s seeking “federal oversight options via congressionally appointed observers.” And Georgia Republican Party Chair Josh McKoon said it raises questions about what secretary of state officials “are trying to hide.”

Raffensperger fired back, noting votes are tabulated not at his office’s operations center, but by local election workers across Georgia’s 159 counties.

“It’s fair to wonder whether those who preach election integrity, including Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, even know where votes are actually counted in Georgia,” he added.

Although at least some members have been invited to attend election night reporting in the past, a spokesperson for the attorney general’s office said they’re “not aware of the General Assembly having enacted a statute to provide the SEB [State Election Board] with this access.”

State Election Board Chair John Fervier, a Kemp appointee, has previously visited the secretary of state’s election night operations center known as “the bunker.” But he said it would be more effective for board members to observe tabulation at the county level. He called it a “pass-through of what’s reported by the counties to the secretary of state.”

That has not deterred some board members.

“There just needs to be oversight and it needs to be transparent,” said board member Salleigh Grubbs, a Jones appointee.

Listen up

Republican candidate for governor Burt Jones, Georgia's lieutenant governor, speaks to supporters last week in Smyrna. (Brynn Anderson/AP)

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast we answer questions from listeners about the races, controversies and legal fights shaping Tuesday’s primary races.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Voting rights protests

The U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled 6-3 that state legislatures can eliminate minority opportunity districts that were previously required or allowed under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. (Rahmat Gul/AP)

Georgia U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Bernice King, the daughter of Martin Luther King Jr., were among those participating in rallies in Alabama on Saturday in response to a recent Supreme Court ruling that weakened the Voting Rights Act.

Warnock told the crowd at the “All Roads Lead to the South” rally in Montgomery that the proper response is to show up at the polls to elect representatives that will protect voting rights.

“Thanks to the awful decision of these political hacks on the Supreme Court, my 9-year-old and my 7-year-old now have less voter protections than their dad did growing up at their age,” the Atlanta Democrat said. “And that makes me angry enough to show up again and again and again and again. Are you ready to fight?”

Michael Jones in his “Once Upon a Hill” newsletter reports that Democrats plan to follow on these demonstrations with a “Freedom Summer” of events.

U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell, D-Ala., told Jones that organizers are basing these plans on the Mississippi Summer Project of 1964, which focused on voter registration, education and boosting Black political power.

Today in Washington

• President Donald Trump will host a healthcare affordability event at the White House.
• The Senate will vote on a bloc of Trump nominations.
• The House is out until Wednesday.

Shoutouts

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican candidate for governor, and his wife Tricia appear before filing paperwork in March to run for office. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)