5 questions about Georgia’s growing governor’s race
Today’s newsletter highlights:
- Susan Monarez is set to testify before a Senate panel.
- A new poll shows tight margins in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race.
- The State Ethics Commission tackles a busy agenda today.
Mixing it up
The back-to-back campaign launches of former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan as a Democrat and Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger have scrambled Georgia’s governor’s race — and left us with lots of questions.
1. Will either party’s base go for them?
Both men have proven they can win statewide elections. Both have honed their reputations by defying President Donald Trump’s demands to overturn the 2020 vote. And both have a track record of energizing crossover voters.
But each faces enormous hurdles with their political base. Raffensperger remains so reviled among GOP activists that the state party voted to bar him from even qualifying as a Republican.
And Duncan, a former Republican who recently turned Democrat, must answer for his long record of backing GOP policies on abortion, guns, Medicaid and a slew of other issues that could alienate progressives.
As the only prominent white person in the Democratic race, Duncan also faces the challenge of winning over the Black voters who make up the party’s core. It’s why his first event today is at a Black-owned business in Atlanta.
2. Who can win over swing voters in the primaries?
Recent Georgia elections have often been decided by a small but pivotal bloc of ticket-splitters. Both Duncan and Raffensperger want to expand the primary electorate by bringing in independents. But primaries are dominated by the most loyal voters — and there are only so many crossover ballots to go around.
3. What happens to Attorney General Chris Carr?
Until Raffensperger jumped in, Carr occupied the mainstream Republican lane while Lt. Gov. Burt Jones tried to leverage Trump’s endorsement to corner the MAGA base. Now Raffensperger is fishing in the same pond — with near-universal name recognition and the ability to self-fund. Carr’s task is avoiding third-wheel status.
4. How will Trump respond?
Trump branded Duncan a “total loser” after his recent party switch. Now with Raffensperger in the race, will he step up his involvement in Georgia even more? After all, he tried and failed to oust Raffensperger in 2022. And Jones, who has leaned hard into the MAGA brand, would no doubt welcome the help.
5. What will Stacey Abrams do?
The two-time Democratic nominee looms as the ultimate wild card. She hasn’t ruled out another run. Nor has she taken any steps to prepare one either. Would she really stay on the sidelines if Duncan — who has relentlessly criticized her and backed policies she’s fought against — emerges as the potential Democratic front-runner?
Things to know
Good morning! We’re six days away from a special election in state Senate District 21. We’re 48 days away from a special election for the Public Service Commission and elections for local government seats across the state.
Here are three other things to know for today:
- Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is now officially disqualified from the 2020 election interference case against President Donald Trump, the AJC’s Bill Rankin and Tamar Hallerman report. The Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia will select a new prosecutor. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, trolled Willis on social media late Tuesday.
- Former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, now a Democratic candidate for governor, said he “got it wrong” when he supported a law restricting access to abortion in Georgia, Greg Bluestein reports.
- The U.S. Department of Transportation has ordered Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines and Aeromexico to unwind their joint venture agreement, the AJC’s Emma Hurt reports.
Clearing the air
The Trump administration fired Susan Monarez after just one month leading the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But she’s likely to face a somewhat sympathetic audience today when she testifies before a Republican-led Senate committee.
Monarez is scheduled to give her first public comments before the U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions. The committee’s chair, U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, is one of the few Republicans on Capitol Hill willing to give former appointees of President Donald Trump a platform in Washington.
Cassidy, a medical doctor, clashed with U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The title of today’s hearing offers clues about its tone: “Restoring Trust through Radical Transparency: Reviewing Recent Events at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Implications for Children’s Health.”
Also scheduled to speak: Dr. Debra Houry, the CDC’s former chief medical officer who resigned shortly after Kennedy fired Monarez.
Poll watch
Gov. Brian Kemp is backing Derek Dooley for Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat next year because he says the former football coach has the best chance to win. But a new poll suggests that among the three Republican candidates Dooley has the most work to do.
The poll shows Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff and Republican U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins locked in close races in hypothetical matchups, each within the poll’s 4.3 percentage point margin of error.
But Dooley is outside of that margin, trailing Ossoff by nearly 7 percentage points. In a head-to-head matchup, 42.1% of voters favored Ossoff while 35.4% chose Dooley.
Collins performed the best, earning 37.7% to Ossoff’s 37.8% — essentially a tie. Carter polled at 37.1% compared to Ossoff at 40.2%.
The poll, conducted by Quantus Insights, surveyed 624 registered likely voters from Sept. 9-12. The poll also found Ossoff had an approval rating of 47% while 37% disapproved and 16% were unsure.
President Donald Trump’s rating was split evenly with 49% approving and 49% disapproving with 2% unsure.
Ethics meeting
The State Ethics Commission’s agenda is so busy today that we struggled to decide what to tell you about first.
We’ll start with a pair of Democratic state senators accused of not filing financial disclosure reports. Sens. Derrick Mallow, D-Savannah, and Kenya Wicks, D-Fayetteville, appear to have agreed to consent orders resolving their cases. Two others: Republican Sen. Colton Moore of Trenton and Democratic Sen. Freddie Powell Sims of Dawson, were fined for similar offenses earlier this year.
Then, the commission will deal five — count ’em five! — of the seven candidates who ran in a special election for state Senate District 21. Republicans Lance Calvert, Stephanie Donegan, Steve West and Brian Will plus Democrat Debra Shigley all have consent orders on the agenda. Shigley is the only candidate still in the running. She faces Republican Jason Dickerson in Tuesday’s runoff.
Georgia Freedom Fund, a conservative political group dedicated to opposing “tyrannical infringement of our constitutional rights,” has also agreed to a consent order. We’ll know more once the commission meets to discuss it.
The AJC’s David Wickert will have all the details in a story posted later today.
Listen up
Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast conservative activist CJ Pearson joins the show to talk about President Donald Trump’s support among young, Black voters. He’ll also discuss the assassination of Charlie Kirk and political violence.
You can listen and subscribe to Politically Georgia for free at Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.
Busy day
Georgia’s Legislature is out of session. But you wouldn’t know that by today’s schedule at the state Capitol and elsewhere.
Five legislative committees are holding hearings on a range of issues. It’s among the busiest days of the legislative off season.
Here’s the list:
- 9 a.m.: House lawmakers meet in Dublin to study how Georgia pays for public health. Lawmakers will hear from a host of health care advocates and officials, including several from Gov. Brian Kemp’s administration.
- 10 a.m.: House lawmakers meet in Augusta to continue studying Georgia’s legitimation process — a route for fathers to establish legal rights over their children born out of wedlock. Advocates say the process has become too expensive and time-consuming.
- 10 a.m.: State senators meet at the Capitol to study the impact of social media and artificial intelligence on children. They will hear from experts and discuss age verification policies.
- 1 p.m.: State senators meet at the Capitol to continue planning on how to end the state’s individual income tax. They’ll hear from current and former officials from Florida, Iowa, Tennessee and Texas.
- 1 p.m.: State senators will meet at the Capitol to talk about improving family caregiver services. Department of Behavioral Health and Developmental Disabilities Commissioner Kevin Tanner, a former Republican state lawmaker, is scheduled to testify.
Today in Washington
Happenings:
- President Donald Trump’s visit to the United Kingdom continues with meetings with King Charles III.
- The House could begin work on a bill to avoid a government shutdown and will also consider legislation changing how officials govern the District of Columbia.
- The Senate could vote to advance a list of Trump nominees.
- Susan Monarez, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director, will testify before a Senate committee.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a news conference to discuss any decision on cutting interest rates.
Shoutout
Today’s birthday:
- Georgia Supreme Court Chief Justice Nels S.D. Peterson.
Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that. Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.
Before you go
A former College Park code enforcement supervisor sued City Councilman Roderick Gay, alleging that Gay sought special treatment for friends and tried to pressure the official into carrying out “unlawful private agendas and vendettas.”
That’ll do it for us today. As always, you can send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.
AJC reporter Caleb Groves contributed to this report.
About the Authors
Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution's chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.
Tia Mitchell is the AJC’s Washington Bureau Chief and a co-host of the "Politically Georgia" podcast. She writes about Georgia’s congressional delegation, campaigns, elections and the impact that decisions made in D.C. have on residents of the Peach State.
Patricia Murphy is the AJC's senior political columnist. She was previously a nationally syndicated columnist for CQ Roll Call, national political reporter for the Daily Beast and Politics Daily, and wrote for The Washington Post and Garden & Gun. She graduated from Vanderbilt and holds a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.
