Fall is here and some leaves are dropping early. But when will it cool off?
The first day of fall is Monday, but when will sweater weather actually arrive in Atlanta?
Probably not for a while, according to climate predictions calling for above-average temperatures this season. We also may not get much immediate relief from the long spell of dry weather that has triggered drought conditions across parts of the state, turning some leaves brown way before the temperature feels autumnal.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predictions put the region at a 40-50% chance of seeing higher-than-average temperatures through November.
That doesn’t mean we won’t have any cool days, though. It just means the overall average looks to be trending warmer than usual, National Weather Service meteorologist Meredith Wyatt told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
“It’s not uncommon for us to have cloudy days this time of year, especially going into October,” she said. “So it certainly could be (that) we’ll have some cool days interspersed in there.”
Temps in metro Atlanta have been well above average as the summer came to an end, and highs are expected to stay in the mid to upper 80s — potentially even 90 degrees — at least through this week. The normal high this time of year is just 80 degrees.
On average, the Atlanta area doesn’t see high temperatures consistently stay below the mid-70s until October, according to NWS data. By Halloween, there is usually a chill in the air — just in time to send a chill down your spine for any after-dark spooky activities.
After a very wet May and early June, Atlanta came in almost 2 inches short of its normal summer rainfall, Weather Service data shows. And so far in September, the city has had less than a quarter-inch of rain. The normal amount is 3.82 inches.
Long-range forecasts aren’t favoring a lot of moisture this fall.
Much of Georgia is already under “abnormally dry” conditions, the precursor to drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Some portions of the state have entered moderate drought, including parts of Fulton, Cobb, Carroll, Coweta, Douglas, Fayette and Paulding counties.
In those circumstances, foliage needs more water, stream and pond levels drop and fire risk elevates.
The fall inherently ushers in an uptick in fire activity, according to Georgia Forestry Commission spokesperson Wendy Burnett. From Sept. 1-19, 115 fires have sparked across the state, a 12% increase in the five-year average over the same period, she said.
The lack of rain is also having consequences for Atlanta, the city in a forest.
“If your backyard is anything like mine, you’re probably starting to notice the leaves fall,” Channel 2 Action News meteorologist Brian Monahan said. “You may think that’s a little early for that to be happening, and it is.”
The Peach State doesn’t typically see leaves change colors until mid-October or even November in the southern part of the state.
Monahan said the dry, warm weather has stressed trees, causing some leaves to quickly turn brown and yellow.
“They’re drying out, and they’re falling off the trees,” he said.
The Weather Service says “the biggest hope” we have for some relief comes later this week, when isolated to scattered showers creep back into the forecast. But it may be short-lived.
While forecasts are difficult to predict with accuracy more than a few days out, the NWS three-week climate outlook estimates a below-average amount of rain, Wyatt said.
October is already “generally kind of our drier month,” Wyatt said, so the predicted “warmer temperatures and lack of rain, will not do well for the ... drought for our area.”
Taking a step back to look through a wider lens, however, shows slightly better news. NOAA’s fall seasonal outlook, which spans September through November, estimates we will see at least an average amount of rain.
Another bright spot: Far South Georgia has the best shot — a 30-50% chance — at seeing more rain than normal this fall, according to NOAA data. That is where the largest swath of drought conditions has set in.
