High School Sports

Maxwell GHSA playoff projections heading into the second round

August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION
August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION
By Loren Maxwell
Nov 20, 2024

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2023 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Carrollton#1 (2-AAAAAA)11-099.6785.373.78943,638.83924,542.30507,032.14408,311.561.45
Buford#1 (8-AAAAAA)10-1101.2190.073.38878,995.11728,876.23420,939.46350,315.571.85
Grayson#1 (4-AAAAAA)10-189.6787.752.94877,945.12604,112.56370,870.8490,192.7110.09
Douglas County#2 (2-AAAAAA)9-288.5989.032.36538,282.64503,125.19257,896.6457,077.9216.52
North Gwinnett#1 (7-AAAAAA)11-088.7592.212.22916,803.58217,611.4257,261.0130,619.2331.66
North Cobb#1 (5-AAAAAA)11-085.9988.692.12461,717.36421,658.78200,524.9935,020.6227.55
Collins Hill#2 (8-AAAAAA)10-184.8090.851.83529,237.68202,152.2489,423.8113,950.1770.68
Colquitt County#1 (1-AAAAAA)8-382.5190.251.72470,762.32166,738.2969,095.728,614.24115.09
Lowndes#2 (1-AAAAAA)10-185.9095.921.19121,004.8950,735.369,808.394,432.47224.61
Valdosta#3 (1-AAAAAA)9-277.3593.291.1056,361.1741,732.193,654.25855.791,167.51
Norcross#3 (7-AAAAAA)8-374.4391.631.15122,054.8826,996.905,242.41280.873,559.32
West Forsyth#3 (6-AAAAAA)8-368.8989.281.89810,440.0770,402.476,807.26197.425,064.25
Peachtree Ridge#4 (7-AAAAAA)6-568.6292.781.49470,518.4815,311.37526.4052.4919,048.80
Hillgrove#2 (3-AAAAAA)10-168.3092.641.55529,481.5218,414.14626.1960.3716,562.30
Newton#2 (4-AAAAAA)6-469.9495.311.0983,196.422,776.99152.1617.4057,454.10
Archer#4 (4-AAAAAA)4-758.0289.661.19189,559.934,813.57138.341.15868,885.58

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Lee County#1 (2-AAAAA)11-0103.4987.683.91982,075.08961,370.95529,946.50434,925.021.30
Milton#1 (7-AAAAA)11-0102.4088.183.79993,547.57956,721.73465,978.29373,659.711.68
Thomas County Central#2 (2-AAAAA)10-194.5689.323.26870,175.25668,481.03565,489.38153,199.915.53
Coffee#3 (2-AAAAA)9-284.5690.642.41696,478.40534,962.10163,767.9816,834.5858.40
Hughes#1 (3-AAAAA)10-183.8191.591.82540,362.14163,241.38102,728.349,760.04101.46
Roswell#2 (7-AAAAA)9-283.7792.421.67459,637.86125,240.9476,949.497,275.36136.45
Brunswick#1 (1-AAAAA)10-176.2990.611.53303,521.60187,418.3334,878.191,459.01684.39
Sequoyah#2 (6-AAAAA)10-174.9790.651.83607,383.60192,675.8028,090.441,014.45984.76
Rome#1 (5-AAAAA)8-277.3092.211.19129,824.7543,036.6519,475.16911.851,095.67
Houston County#4 (2-AAAAA)7-478.2196.891.73695,172.3735,365.042,249.94531.841,879.25
Sprayberry#1 (6-AAAAA)10-172.8695.571.78750,898.5426,515.911,221.43181.835,498.59
Woodward Academy#1 (4-AAAAA)8-370.0090.391.49392,616.4084,943.788,621.03177.495,633.09
East Paulding#2 (5-AAAAA)10-171.2497.021.0317,924.928,599.57309.0539.5225,305.60
Lakeside (Evans)#2 (1-AAAAA)10-169.9997.101.31304,827.636,832.67212.8824.1441,428.07
Newnan#2 (3-AAAAA)9-264.9296.861.25249,101.463,513.5767.514.58218,454.97
Dutchtown#3 (3-AAAAA)7-461.4897.101.016,452.431,080.5514.390.671,481,771.07

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Marist#1 (5-AAAA)11-086.6877.443.52954,315.69795,852.92493,864.96277,344.502.61
North Oconee#1 (8-AAAA)11-087.3179.793.10812,817.15637,278.53409,763.99235,734.373.24
Blessed Trinity#1 (6-AAAA)9-185.3778.633.17863,510.60712,747.89391,456.25203,502.733.91
Creekside#1 (4-AAAA)8-285.1279.932.95867,787.88599,443.35315,663.37163,405.185.12
Eastside#2 (8-AAAA)10-181.4882.832.11676,200.54279,508.67111,056.1646,243.0120.62
Cartersville#1 (7-AAAA)11-078.3081.452.07716,389.75228,164.1992,886.2830,246.5032.06
Benedictine#3 (1-AAAA)6-475.4081.931.97724,261.55187,108.6848,891.2912,610.0578.30
Ware County#2 (1-AAAA)6-576.3183.921.31187,182.8589,397.1929,918.358,323.27119.15
Central (Carrollton)#1 (3-AAAA)9-273.9981.951.72559,829.81117,456.4033,056.227,801.21127.19
Perry#1 (1-AAAA)8-374.0083.071.44323,799.4686,180.3421,849.065,158.89192.84
Cambridge#3 (6-AAAA)9-273.2983.291.54440,170.1977,214.0317,626.853,914.18254.48
Jonesboro#2 (3-AAAA)8-371.2183.031.21136,489.4064,142.8712,012.742,132.23467.99
Starr's Mill#3 (3-AAAA)10-171.8483.701.34283,610.2545,160.1010,441.341,964.59508.01
Kell#2 (6-AAAA)7-470.6584.151.17132,212.1234,867.646,087.621,065.96937.12
Ola#1 (2-AAAA)11-065.9981.901.32275,738.4536,000.564,629.74491.602,033.19
Jones County#2 (2-AAAA)10-162.5183.291.0645,684.319,476.65795.7661.7316,199.02

Class AAA Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Peach County#3 (1-AAA)10-171.8960.783.62935,119.51730,471.22602,044.73350,818.811.85
Jefferson#1 (8-AAA)8-373.3864.083.11747,906.31597,177.22461,382.26300,421.462.33
Sandy Creek#4 (2-AAA)10-167.1664.552.47642,702.37511,003.31214,944.07104,824.398.54
Cherokee Bluff#8 (8-AAA)10-164.5265.302.26830,586.04248,637.16126,984.5853,030.1817.86
Jenkins#10 (3-AAA)9-262.1764.902.02532,150.79355,480.84103,572.7933,327.9229.00
Oconee County#17 (8-AAA)7-465.5768.331.50252,093.69139,287.1573,265.4932,620.1929.66
Douglass#11 (5-AAA)7-363.6366.521.81534,608.19150,282.2388,779.8731,799.9830.45
LaGrange#20 (2-AAA)8-363.5566.981.69357,297.63233,272.5970,161.4427,559.4735.29
Calhoun#6 (7-AAA)8-361.1666.181.65465,391.81107,783.0161,436.3218,286.9353.68
Stephenson#7 (5-AAA)8-359.7864.851.84467,849.21282,629.3168,026.9218,131.5754.15
Harlem#2 (4-AAA)10-157.0963.302.01654,912.56276,269.3962,836.0613,303.9974.17
Upson-Lee#12 (2-AAA)8-359.0865.571.92664,598.56201,725.8843,728.1812,513.3778.91
Southeast Bulloch#18 (3-AAA)9-253.0365.641.44345,087.4485,620.4610,450.641,515.57658.82
North Hall#5 (6-AAA)9-252.0465.901.40335,401.4453,998.226,676.331,046.25954.80
Luella#24 (5-AAA)6-552.5068.121.19169,413.9614,898.472,857.65467.262,139.11
Baldwin#14 (4-AAA)7-450.8367.291.0864,880.4911,463.542,852.67332.663,005.05

Class AA Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Pierce County#10 (3-AA)10-169.4658.973.28899,800.12588,808.59448,299.77341,783.991.93
Carver (Columbus)#2 (1-AA)10-163.7358.502.73922,944.40387,814.91258,590.14161,018.375.21
Hapeville Charter#5 (5-AA)8-362.6858.202.79813,352.25486,267.24338,633.01147,545.325.78
Burke County#4 (4-AA)10-158.9056.972.75936,096.31453,351.95270,927.9191,044.649.98
Morgan County#8 (2-AA)10-159.4057.792.70803,334.78565,488.16248,626.4386,680.8110.54
Appling County#6 (3-AA)8-360.3060.942.03564,177.48313,906.07102,198.6153,812.6717.58
Callaway#3 (2-AA)9-259.2360.252.12641,373.40332,410.1499,441.9049,314.8219.28
Carver (Atlanta)#11 (5-AA)7-359.4462.261.76435,822.52231,811.3262,705.8631,483.9030.76
Rockmart#1 (7-AA)9-252.9657.752.10696,341.96286,440.9795,159.5519,601.4350.02
Stephens County#14 (8-AA)7-455.6662.621.51358,626.60121,872.4623,735.829,387.42105.53
Thomson#12 (4-AA)8-351.6561.671.27186,647.7556,552.8319,938.873,642.52273.54
Sumter County#9 (1-AA)10-148.9160.391.30196,665.2282,270.9615,757.902,212.74450.93
Westside (Macon)#16 (2-AA)6-547.3160.291.38303,658.0465,799.9210,580.471,266.55788.55
Columbia#7 (6-AA)5-649.7463.151.12100,199.8818,205.004,372.511,090.77915.78
Ringgold#15 (7-AA)8-344.2263.891.0877,055.605,171.50655.4098.0910,194.20
Laney#20 (4-AA)6-437.7061.341.0763,903.693,827.98375.8515.9762,612.27

Class A Division I Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Toombs County#6 (3-A Division I)9-177.0657.794.24957,115.47907,797.51722,073.79651,927.240.53
Thomasville#7 (1-A Division I)9-266.7464.392.65932,898.23497,412.28128,941.5994,398.209.59
Dublin#2 (2-A Division I)11-064.7662.622.69970,690.82494,549.18133,532.7991,329.839.95
Northeast#8 (2-A Division I)9-259.8660.552.76889,878.59512,877.51303,208.8454,711.8717.28
Fitzgerald#12 (1-A Division I)8-358.5960.712.75914,968.01539,634.92254,707.8541,026.6823.37
Fannin County#1 (7-A Division I)11-058.2760.852.44762,107.89406,544.65233,378.5236,500.9926.40
Worth County#4 (1-A Division I)8-356.5761.242.26711,174.35365,512.64165,992.3922,143.1844.16
Heard County#3 (6-A Division I)9-252.8964.451.65592,248.8748,939.938,914.763,110.62320.48
Dodge County#13 (2-A Division I)9-250.3263.451.40288,825.6583,551.6921,576.641,545.39646.09
Jeff Davis#16 (1-A Division I)8-349.8263.761.32237,892.1160,258.3816,391.351,114.33896.40
Commerce#11 (8-A Division I)8-352.3366.861.0742,884.5321,362.823,248.541,085.69920.07
Elbert County#19 (8-A Division I)6-551.0766.391.43407,751.1321,899.742,934.10886.621,126.88
Lamar County#9 (4-A Division I)9-243.6563.331.13110,121.4120,319.463,686.61128.887,757.92
Temple#10 (6-A Division I)9-245.9868.091.0767,101.776,966.80335.1164.5015,503.04
Bleckley County#28 (2-A Division I)5-639.9863.411.1085,031.9911,300.751,057.8024.5440,748.91
Jasper County#15 (4-A Division I)8-336.7267.951.0329,309.181,071.7419.311.44696,772.97

Class A Division II

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Manchester#1 (7-A Division II)7-165.1154.443.35978,615.48604,009.83446,291.10321,443.992.11
Bowdon#2 (7-A Division II)8-260.7153.153.24834,234.13672,793.22503,024.97230,944.263.33
Lincoln County#1 (8-A Division II)9-061.7456.212.77950,918.04392,694.20259,187.83165,458.555.04
Brooks County#1 (2-A Division II)6-458.4653.243.14904,583.69802,112.09280,428.01154,590.755.47
Irwin County#3 (2-A Division II)9-156.0354.562.67753,931.94574,383.53253,124.9583,922.7210.92
Clinch County#2 (2-A Division II)9-149.8354.482.26883,591.02242,836.43113,082.8622,167.6544.11
Trion#3 (7-A Division II)8-248.1055.372.04720,841.02248,413.1363,016.1510,501.4994.22
Early County#1 (1-A Division II)7-345.3355.391.41246,068.06128,015.3731,687.134,025.73247.40
Metter#1 (3-A Division II)9-145.8556.011.28165,765.8778,041.7728,545.273,821.97260.64
Jenkins County#2 (3-A Division II)8-244.1957.081.89738,574.46134,744.0610,717.362,210.10451.47
Telfair County#1 (4-A Division II)8-238.8355.111.34279,158.9849,187.976,861.80442.172,260.59
Miller County#3 (1-A Division II)7-340.9158.031.1495,416.3142,210.122,344.69359.272,782.45
Macon County#1 (6-A Division II)6-434.1756.671.28261,425.5420,933.73635.0149.5920,163.83
Mitchell County#2 (1-A Division II)8-238.2061.251.0549,081.962,245.95297.9935.1428,457.85
Johnson County#1 (5-A Division II)8-231.5255.521.12116,408.986,328.57656.8718.8053,199.14
Wilcox County#2 (4-A Division II)6-434.3661.181.0221,384.521,050.0398.017.81127,990.37

Class AAA to A Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Savannah Christian#1 (3-A Division I)9-085.6464.114.38992,398.86983,486.51763,089.61644,153.390.55
Hebron Christian#6 (8-AA)8-274.7169.183.44939,043.05774,289.93578,151.67152,911.075.54
Prince Avenue Christian#5 (8-AA)7-378.5573.703.05998,232.82710,053.78199,110.07140,962.736.09
Fellowship Christian#2 (5-A Division I)8-265.8668.813.18978,381.87843,923.48318,815.3337,171.5425.90
Calvary Day#4 (3-AAA)9-169.8375.622.33986,664.59289,850.6437,301.4517,979.9654.62
Athens Academy#3 (8-A Division I)10-061.6271.652.16869,653.24201,513.6482,212.826,176.08160.92
Wesleyan#10 (5-A Division I)9-253.4472.061.95787,723.41141,064.9715,881.45484.842,061.52
Lovett#11 (5-AA)9-253.0973.821.0860,956.9518,130.863,775.45110.689,034.46
North Cobb Christian#8 (7-AA)9-147.6875.931.56550,665.057,460.93236.4917.8156,158.92
Whitefield Academy#9 (5-A Division I)7-347.2975.991.46449,334.955,862.66177.6412.8377,937.34
Aquinas#14 (4-AAA)7-447.0273.651.14130,346.766,065.58728.8510.6693,786.69
Savannah Country Day#17 (3-A Division I)5-646.1076.121.017,601.143,189.9084.305.37186,380.02
Christian Heritage#7 (7-A Division I)8-241.1472.361.22212,276.5912,143.75389.282.87348,181.66
King's Ridge Christian#15 (5-A Division I)8-335.2072.481.0221,618.132,867.8045.160.176,031,362.10
Mount Paran Christian#13 (5-A Division I)8-335.0678.381.0113,335.4181.220.400.01134,323,385.26
Providence Christian#21 (8-A Division I)3-826.7378.361.001,767.1814.350.030.005,241,124,204.45

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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