Braves make $15.3 million qualifying offer to Santana

Ervin Santana has a week to accept or decline a $15.3 million qualifying offer made Monday by Braves, who viewed the offer as a good business move even if he were to surprise everyone by accepting it.

If he takes the offer, he’d be the Braves’ highest-paid player in 2015, but with a salary not out of line for a pitcher of his ilk. The Braves are assured a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds of the June draft if he declines and signs with another team.

Santana missed a couple of starts in 2014 after not signing until the middle of spring training and not debuting until April 9, but still ranked third among Braves pitchers in innings (196) while going 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA. He was second on the team in strikeouts with 179, a rate of 8.2 per nine innings that was his best since 2008.

Santana recently told his agent, Jay Alou, that he might accept the qualifying offer. Alou told him they should try to get some security with a longer-term contract, and pointed out that none of the 22 players who received qualifying offers in the first two years of the system accepted those offers (including Santana after the 2013 season with Kansas City).

The qualifying offer is the average of the top 125 major league salaries the previous season. The amount was $14.1 million a year ago and has climbed eight percent — enough that some agents and team executives believe at least one or two free agents might accept the offer this time.

The Braves say they wouldn’t be uncomfortable paying him $15.3 million in a one-year deal, which is less than what many comparable free agents would average in a multi-year deal on the current market. Santana has a 3.88 in his past five seasons, and his 1036 1/3 innings pitched in that span ranks ninth in the majors.

The Braves gave up the 26th pick in the June draft as compensation after signing him to a $14.1 million contract midway through 2014 spring training, a move they made in a desperate situation after elbow injuries to starters Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy. Both required season-ending Tommy John surgeries, the second career TJ for each.

The Braves would like to bring back Medlen, who made $5.8 million in his second year of arbitration.

At the time Santana signed in March, left-hander Mike Minor had also been sidelined most of spring training with shoulder tendinitis. He spent April on the disabled list, struggled for much of the season to regain his form, and had his last start skipped as a precautiomary measure due to a recurrence of shoulder soreness.

Minor should be fully recovered and return along with rotation certainties Julio Teheran and Alex Wood, leaving two spots and more than 400 innings to replace with the potential departures of free agents Santana and Aaron Harang, who was 12-12 with a 3.57 ERA. Harang, who’ll be 37 in May, said he’d like to return to Atlanta, but he’ll probably be able to command a two-year contract.

The Braves’ best healthy in-house option to fill a rotation spot is a pretty good one: David Hale is 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA in eight starts over two seasons between bullpen stints.

After his belated debut, Santana was 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his first six starts. He faltered, going 1-3 with a 6.44 ERA in his next six starts and falling from favor with some of the same folks who’d commended his performance and free-spirited demeanor in his first weeks as a Brave.