With Strider returning next week, Braves make anticipated roster decision

In a week or less, the Braves will welcome Spencer Strider back to their starting rotation. He will start Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday in Washington, manager Brian Snitker said. The Braves have not decided on the exact day.

When Strider comes off the injured list, this sets up an interesting decision for the Braves: Who will the team boot from the rotation?

“It’s gonna be a tough call,” Snitker said after Wednesday’s game. “Hopefully they all pitch so well that it’s even rougher. That’s things out of control (of the players). They just need to continue to do their job and stay focused on the task at hand, and everything else will take care of itself.”

The day after Snitker said that, AJ Smith-Shawver made the call even tougher as he led the Braves to a 5-2 win over the Nationals at Truist Park. Or maybe he made it easier by pitching so well that he made the Braves believe they must keep him in the rotation.

After the game, the Braves optioned right-hander Bryce Elder. One would assume this eventually would be Strider’s roster spot.

Before this move, everyone knew a difficult decision loomed.

“I mean, those decisions are always tough, and we’ve all been through it,” Smith-Shawver said. “We know it’s gonna happen or has to happen, that things are gonna change here and there. It’s just, when they tell you to throw the ball, throw the ball. And just enjoy every moment.”

The obvious candidates: Smith-Shawver, Elder, Grant Holmes.

There was an issue, though.

Smith-Shawver on Thursday allowed one unearned run — on an Austin Riley error — over six innings. He’s given up one earned run over his past 19⅔ innings across three starts.

Elder on Wednesday spun six innings of one-run baseball. Over his past three starts, he’s surrendered six earned runs across 17 innings — including only two over five frames in a win over the potent Dodgers.

Holmes on Monday allowed one run over 6⅓ innings. Since a poor outing in Phoenix, he’s given up seven earned runs over 17⅔ innings across his past three starts.

It didn’t feel like there was an obvious odd man out after the Braves took three of four from the Nationals. But it makes sense that it’s Elder.

Let’s dive a bit deeper into the rotation conversation. Here are some things to consider:

• Holmes, who has a 4.14 ERA this season, began the season in the rotation. He began spring training with a leg up in the competition because he performed the best for the Braves last season. Even as Smith-Shawver and Elder have pitched well, Holmes hasn’t pitched himself out of the rotation. If you take out his outing against Arizona, in which he allowed six runs, Holmes has a 3.38 ERA. He’s done well. And he’s out of options, so the Braves would lose him if they take him off the roster — which is why that won’t happen.
• Smith-Shawver is on the best run of his young career. The Braves sent him down in April, and he responded to it well. On Thursday, he would’ve thrown six scoreless innings had Riley made a routine play behind him that would’ve ended the top of the sixth. Yes, his three terrific outings were against the Reds, Pirates and Nationals, but he cannot control his opponents. He can only control his performance — and he’s been great. Could the Braves option him again? He still has development to do, but he’s helping them.
• Since allowing 12 earned runs over his first three starts, Elder has given up only 10 runs over his past 29 innings. He’s settled in nicely. As previously mentioned, he quieted the Dodgers in one start. His stuff has looked better this season. He’s also enjoying the consistency that comes with staying in the big leagues instead of going up and down between the majors and Triple-A — something he did a year ago. But he was slightly below the others in the pecking order.

“I think more than anything, just the routine,” Elder said after Wednesday’s start. “You know when you’re throwing your (bullpen sessions), you know when you’re gonna pitch. It’s tough. It’s something we gotta do at times. But it’s nice to know if we’re gonna bump a day, then I know, ‘Hey, we’re gonna bump back a day.’ Whereas if you’re in Triple-A waiting to get called up or whatever, you never know what’s gonna happen, so you may throw on a five-day (rotation), you may throw on a 10-day, you never know. The consistency of it allows you to kind of get in a groove.”

And he’s found a nice groove. So, too, have Smith-Shawver and Holmes.

One idea that might have come to mind for you: A six-man rotation. But Snitker said the Braves won’t be going this route. They are off on each of the next three Mondays, and a six-man rotation would give everyone too much time in between starts.

This was a good problem for the Braves, who are a few days away from the end of a stretch of 17 games in 17 days.

“The starts we’ve been getting have been really good since (Spencer) Schwellenbach a couple times ago, kind of had the short one,” Snitker said Thursday. “And then, in order to get through this — we got three more days now in this 17-game run — you need good starts, so you’re not doing roster gymnastics and all that kind of stuff. The starters have been a key to this little stretch we’re in.”

Those roster gymnastics are here. Elder will head to Triple-A Gwinnett. The Braves likely will use that spot for an extra bullpen arm until they activate Strider.

This topic wouldn’t be as much of a debate if it were a lesser-caliber pitcher coming off the injured list. The Braves could justify keeping Holmes, Smith-Shawver and Elder around. But this is Strider. At his best, he’s one of the game’s most electric pitchers. As he gets more starts under his belt this season, he should creep closer to his top form.