Falcons coach Stefanski isn’t using Bijan Robinson like he should
It didn’t make any sense.
Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski has expressed regret for not getting Bijan Robinson the ball more in some games. He’s touted Robinson’s special ability to gain yards in tight spaces.
Yet when Falcons played the Buccaneers on Sunday in an ideal situation for Robinson to run, he was a smaller part of the game play than quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Robinson ran 19 times for 76 yards in the wet and windy weather. Penix attempted 24 passes and threw four of them to the Bucs. The Buccaneers leaned heavily on lesser backs than Robinson — Bucky Irving (27 carries) and Kenneth Gainwell (25) — and they combined for 310 yards in Tampa Bay’s 16-0 victory.
The Falcons are playing the Bengals in Madrid on Sunday. Cincinnati has a subpar run defense. So long as the Falcons aren’t in a big hole, there will be no excuse for not giving the Bengals a big dose of Robinson runs.
The Bucs game was the most egregious case of the Falcons underutilizing Robinson in the run game, but it’s not the only one this season. The terrible performance in Tampa Bay makes three losses in which the Falcons didn’t ride their All-Pro running back.
The Falcons built an early lead against the Ravens in Week 6, but Robinson had just three carries in the first half and finished with 17 for 86 yards. The next week, Robinson had eight carries for 57 yards among 27 plays against the Bears before the Falcons fell behind 28-7 late in the third quarter.
Stefanski said Robinson should have had more carries against the Bears.
“Without a doubt,” Stefanski said. “That’s game flow, etc. I get that part but, that’s part of us needing to play way better early, so we can execute a game plan.”
Game flow didn’t explain why Robinson had just 19 carries in the slop at Tampa Bay.
The biggest deficit the Falcons faced in the first half was nine points. They fell behind 16-0 late in the third quarter.
“For us, we knew what kind of game it was going to be as soon as it kept raining, so we were like, ‘We just run it and get yards and wear the defense down,’ and that’s what we were doing,” Robinson said. “For us, we’ve got to continue to capitalize on opportunities when we get them, and it’s all a whole offensive effort. We have to get a hat on a hat or 11 on 11 and just run it as much as we can.”
The Falcons haven’t been doing that enough with Robinson. The defensive alignments they’ve faced don’t fully explain why that’s happened.
According to Sumer Sports tracking data, the Ravens deployed eight or more defenders near the line of scrimmage on just 19% of the plays with Robinson on the field. The Bears showed a “loaded box” on just 21% of the plays with Robinson on the field.
The Bucs loaded the box on 35% of the plays with Robinson on the field. He gained 42 yards on nine carries against loaded boxes with a success rate of only 22% (plays with positive Expected Points Added).
The Falcons’ offensive line had a subpar game blocking for the run against the Bucs. But Robinson might have broken through eventually if given more chances. Sticking with the run has a cumulative effect when Robinson is carrying the ball.
Stefanski has said he wants that to be a big part of the team’s offensive identity. The Falcons have shown the ability to do it even when defenses are stacked to stop Robinson.
Overall, Robinson ranks eighth among qualified backs with 4.14 yards per carry against loaded boxes. Against the Packers, Robinson rushed 14 times for 57 yards against loaded boxes with a success rate of 79%. He ran for 25 yards on four carries versus the Saints against stacked boxes with a success rate of 100%.
The Falcons likely will see more loaded boxes for the rest of the season.
“I think (opponents), after those couple weeks, decided they were going to play us a certain way,” Falcons playcaller Tommy Rees said in Madrid. “In certain games, you’ve been able to take advantage of the passing game (with) those loaded boxes and keep them off balance and try to have the complements there.
“Then part of our challenge is finding ways to run the ball, even when those boxes are loaded, because there are ways to do it. We’ve got to continue to find those and find ways to cut the defense.”
Robinson is built for that.
He leads the league’s running backs in total yards after contact (618) and ranks second to Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren in YAC per carry (4.12). Robinson has avoided more tackles on rushes (31) than every player except Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs and Kansas City’s Kenneth Walker.
The Falcons have been careful about managing Robinson’s workload. It’s obviously important to keep their best offensive player healthy and fresh.
But the goal is to win games, not save wear and tear on Robinson. To increase the chances of winning, the Falcons need to stick with feeding their special running back like they did against the Packers and Saints.
Stefanski said Robinson’s combination of speed, power and agility makes it seem like he was “made in a laboratory.” That’s why the Falcons should make Robinson’s runs a bigger part of their offensive formula.
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