Weekend Predictions: Falcons are ‘home’ underdogs in Madrid
Weekend Predictions is back on the winning side because I didn’t do anything as dumb as passing the ball 24 times in a Florida rainstorm.
To be fair to the Falcons, picking Georgia Tech to cover the spread at Pittsburgh was almost as dumb. That mistake didn’t prevent me from ending my losing streak at three weeks.
Bengals (-3) vs. Falcons (Madrid)
Maybe Real Madrid will rub off on the Falcons. The longtime loser (American) football team is practicing at the home of the storied Spanish football (soccer) team. Real Madrid has won a record 15 UEFA Champions League titles, while the Falcons have never won a Super Bowl. If they competed in European football, the Falcons would have been relegated to a lower league long ago.
Leave it to the Falcons to lose to a team that didn’t complete a pass. The Bengals have one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, led by quarterback Joe Burrow (league-leading 302 yards passing per game and 20 touchdowns). The Falcons are better against the pass than the run, but they can’t count on their offense. I’m backing the Bengals to cover.
No. 2 Georgia (-3 ½) at No. 10 Ole Miss
Multimillionaire Georgia coach Kirby Smart said he believes players sit out more often with injuries nowadays because NIL money has sapped their motivation. After two days of thinking about how that sounds, Smart said it’s “awesome” that players are getting paid. “I don’t want to come across as whining,” Smart said, so at least he’s self-aware.
I understand why the Bulldogs aren’t bigger favorites against Ole Miss. Rebels coach Pete Golding beat Georgia in the playoff last season, and has decisive home victories over LSU, Missouri and Auburn this year. But after Georgia’s dominant victory over Florida, the ugly loss to Auburn looks like a one-off. The Bulldogs are my pick.
Louisville (-14 ½) at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech coach Brent Key’s weekly news conferences have turned into State of the Program addresses. In his latest update, Key said he doesn’t believe the program is broken, it’s just “not functioning worth a damn right now on the field.” I suppose that means the program looks better behind the scenes but, unfortunately for Key, there is no scoreboard for that.
I have an unavoidable bias about this game as a Louisville alum: I always expect to be let down by the football Cardinals. The Yellow Jackets haven’t been competitive in their past three games, and I keep getting burned backing them. I’m taking the Cards, which means the Jackets have their best chance to win in weeks.
Georgia State (+6) at Appalachian State
Georgia State (4-4, 1-3 Sun Belt) has lost three games in a row. The Panthers showed life late in the 31-20 loss to Coastal Carolina last weekend, which only made me more miffed about picking them as favorites. Where was that for three quarters? The Panthers are 0-12 all-time vs. App State. Make it 0-13 after they lose and fail to cover the spread.
Delaware (-1 ½) at Kennesaw State
It’s homecoming week at Kennesaw State. Time for alumni to gather and reminisce about the glory days of 2025. The Owls won the Conference USA championship last year, but they are 2-6 this season (1-3 CUSA). The Owls have been competitive at Fifth Third Stadium, and I can’t resist a good home underdog. I like KSU to cover.
Other college games of interest
No. 1 Miami (+7) at No. 11 Notre Dame
This game has huge College Football Playoff implications. If the Fighting Irish (7-1) lose to the second good team they’ve played, the CFP committee will have to get creative to justify including them in the playoff field. I like the Hurricanes with the points.
No. 9 BYU (+4 ½) at No. 3 Utah
Back when Utah coach Morgan Scalley played safety for the Utes, he told his teammates that he hated BYU “with a passion, ever since I was born.” Scalley told media this week that he and BYU coach Kalani Sitake want the rivalry to become more civil. The Big 12 will never be on the SEC’s level with that attitude. I’m taking BYU and the points.
No. 5 Alabama (+6) at No. 14 LSU
LSU coach Lane Kiffin told media this game is scheduled for the afternoon because the SEC wanted to “give LSU less of an advantage,” considering the Tigers are always tough to beat in big home games at night. He was joking, I think, but the allegation rises above the realm of conspiracy theory because the SEC is suing Kiffin and other LSU officials over player eligibility rules. I like the Tigers to cover, even in the daytime.
No. 6 Kentucky (+6 ½) at No. 13 Tennessee
QB George MacIntyre has started the past three games for Tennessee, but coach Josh Heupel isn’t saying if he’ll start this game. It’s best to keep that secret when facing an opponent the Vols have beaten 22 of the past 24 times at home since 1978. The Vols are my pick.
No. 7 Texas (-2 ½) at No. 18 Missouri
Two weeks ago, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian considered benching struggling quarterback Arch Manning. Now, Sarkisian told reporters: “I’ve never felt better about Arch Manning than I do this week.” I don’t feel good about Sarkisian’s offense on the road against a very good defense. Give me Mizzou as the home ’dog.
No. 23 Oregon (+7 ½) at No. 12 Ohio State
Ohio State coach Ryan Day retained offensive line coach Tyler Bowen after his unit underperformed last season and the group is still shaky. Asked this week about Bowen’s performance, Day said: “You’ve got to evaluate everybody and that’s the thing about being at Ohio State. The expectations are very high.” Time for Bowen to freshen his resume. The Ducks are my pick.
Other NFL games of interest
Browns (+3) at Saints
Saints coach Kellen Moore threw run game coordinator T.J. Paganetti under the bus, then downplayed Paganetti’s role on the bus. Moore said that not much would change after he fired Paganetti. “We felt this was going to be beneficial to the workflow of our staff,” Moore said. Even after hearing that, I’m still picking the Saints to cover.
Broncos (-2 ½) at Panthers
Panthers coach Dave Canales fired defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero but, unlike Moore, he didn’t say the change doesn’t matter. Defensive line coach Todd Wash is the interim coordinator. Canales also let go of passing game coordinator Jonathan Cooley and hired former Falcons Pro Bowler DeAngelo Hall to coach the cornerbacks. I’m picking the Panthers.
Buccaneers (+6) at Bears
After beating the Falcons, the Buccaneers are facing a defense they won’t be able to conquer without completing a pass. The Bears looked great in their 34-17 win at Seattle on Monday night. I’d be more inclined to back the Bucs if not for the uncertain status of QB Baker Mayfield’s thumb. The Bears are my pick.
Last week: 6-5. Season: 48-45-3.
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