Weekend Predictions: Bullish point spread for Falcons against Chiefs
Weekend Predictions will never tank. Sadly, I’m trying my best when my picks against the spread are bad.
That’s been happening a lot lately. At least my record is still above water after three losing weeks in the past four. Unfortunately, I can’t make any trades, so I’m stuck with making a Falcons pick every week.
If only I could be rewarded for losing. Then I would back the Falcons to win every week.
Note: College team rankings are from CFP.
Chiefs (-3) at Falcons
The Falcons traded away superlative safety Jessie Bates III and starting center Ryan Neuzil. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson said those moves don’t mean the Falcons are “plumbing the season.” I’ve never heard that term for tanking, but the Falcons are overcharging their customers for shoddy work, so it tracks.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes practiced Wednesday after getting an MRI on his throwing elbow following Sunday’s victory over the Jets. I figured the line would move in Kansas City’s direction with that news, but it didn’t. It makes me nervous when the market doesn’t make sense. I’ve still got to take the Chiefs to cover.
No. 22 Missouri (+15½) at No. 1 Georgia
Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz questioned the need for conferences with league title games being eliminated: “(Are) we just doing it for scheduling affiliation?” Oh, my sweet summer child, it’s about the SEC arm of college football’s cartel keeping most of the money. Drinkwitz should be careful what he wishes for because Mizzou may not make the cut for the inevitable super league.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart got to dust off his bromides about handling success after his team routed Ole Miss in Oxford. He noted the Bulldogs lost at home to Auburn a week after winning at Alabama. Mizzou has a much better defense than Auburn, but lacks a dynamic quarterback like Byrum Brown. Georgia is my pick.
Georgia Tech (+13½) at Clemson
Georgia Tech coach Brent Key is like the Grim Reaper of The Flats. He fired four assistants Monday and told those still on staff that they aren’t necessarily safe. Those coaches had better hope Key is grading on a curve. The Yellow Jackets have lost eight straight games at Clemson, and finish out the season against No. 13 Wake Forest and No. 1 Georgia.
The Jackets ended a nine-game losing streak against the Tigers last season. That already feels like a different era for Tech. Picking the Yellow Jackets requires believing that the coaching changes will have immediate and large dividends. I don’t see that happening, so I’m taking Clemson and giving the points.
Georgia State (+6) at Georgia Southern
The argument between these schools over which is the “real GSU” is the kind of petty, low-stakes feud that makes college football fun. An example is this 2014 column posted on the Georgia Southern student media website that concludes: “So Georgia State, you can keep the U in your name but the only letter that matters is the W on the field.” I’m taking GSU (Georgia State) and the points.
Kennesaw State (-7½) at Sam Houston
KSU won a wild game against Delaware on Saturday that included eight lead changes. The Owls had to sweat out a two-point try by the Blue Hens in the final minute to secure the 42-40 victory. I was sweating, too, because I picked KSU. I’m backing the Owls to cover again because their offense is humming.
Other college games of interest
Duke (+13½) at No. 7 Miami
Miami coach Mario Cristobal was heated about two calls that didn’t go his way during the loss at Notre Dame on Saturday: “Play better. Coach better. Find a way to win. Again, I don’t need to be criticizing officials.” He said that right after he criticized officials. I like Duke with the points.
No. 2 Utah (-2½) at No. 23 Arizona
Undefeated Utah earned its highest ever College Football Playoff ranking after beating rival and then-No. 9 BYU on Saturday. Coach Morgan Scalley told media he has a message for his players to avoid a letdown: “We always are helping prepare them for a pat on the back that’s not too far from a kick in the butt.” I do both things at the same time to myself after every weekend of picking games. Utah will cover.
No. 6 Texas (+4) at No. 21 LSU
LSU coach Lane Kiffin has crossed the fine line between fun villain and cringe. Kiffin’s entourage for the pregame Tiger Walk last weekend included famous LSU alums (Atlanta Dream forward Angel Reese among them). In the days after the Tigers lost to Alabama, Kiffin posted a (very long) sign in the team’s facility about “the dark side of being the villain.” Kiffin seems lost. Texas is my pick.
No. 18 USC (+10) at No. 9 Indiana
Defending champ Indiana was off last weekend but still dropped five spots in the CFP rankings. Selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek said IU was “probably the victim of having a bye week at the wrong time.” Maybe IU was a victim of committee members getting their feelings hurt by coach Curt Cignetti calling out their SEC bias. Give me USC and the points.
Florida (+3½) at No. 11 Kentucky
The point spread for this game is another data point for how far Florida football has fallen. The Gators beat Kentucky 31 games in a row from 1987 to 2017, but they’ve lost four of the past five meetings. Now the Gators are underdogs by a field goal or more against UK for perhaps the first time ever. I’m taking Kentucky to cover.
Other NFL games of interest
Panthers (+2½) at Saints
The Panthers didn’t make any trades before the deadline. “We feel really strongly about this group,” coach Dave Canales said. That would sound like weak spin for most coaches with a losing record. It kind of makes sense in the NFC South, where the Panthers (3-5) lead the division despite losing three games in a row. I’m picking the Saints with little confidence that I’m right.
Vikings (+3) at Packers
The Raiders somehow convinced the Vikings to trade a third-round pick to them for QB Kirk Cousins. Cousins is reunited with the Vikings, who let him walk to the Falcons in 2024. You can already see how this is shaping up for the Falcons when they go to Minnesota in Week 12. The Packers are my pick.
49ers (-3½) at Cowboys
If the Falcons end up in the NFC wild-card race (don’t laugh), then Dallas (4-5) is one of the teams they’ll have to pass in the standings. It’s in their favor that Brian Schottenheimer is the Cowboys’ coach. See his postgame buffoonery after an ugly win over the tanking (plumbing?) Colts. Kiffin is cornier, but at least he’s a college coach. I like the 49ers to cover.
Last week: 6-7-1. Season: 54-52-4.
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