Inside Falcons decision to trade Jessie Bates III to Jaguars

FLOWERY BRANCH — The Falcons dished out four long-term contract extensions this past summer, and safety Jessie Bates III wasn’t among them. But the organization wasn’t married to this being Bates’ final year in Atlanta, despite it being the last on the four-year contract he signed in 2023.

“(I) wouldn’t say it was the end of line,” a league source with knowledge of the situation told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Monday. The source was granted anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the roster discussions.

But it proved to be for other reasons.

The Falcons traded Bates to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round selection, a quality return for a 29-year-old safety on an expiring deal.

There was at least an exploration of adding Bates to the list of long-term extensions, the league source said. The Falcons looked at the safety market and pondered the potential cost of keeping the three-time second-team Associated Press All-Pro selection in Atlanta for the foreseeable future.

One early takeaway from the Falcons’ new regime, spearheaded by general manager Ian Cunningham, president of football Matt Ryan and coach Kevin Stefanski: They’re organized, ahead and consistently aligned, in large part because of what Stefanski describes as extensive meetings and conversations “about everything under the sun.”

The Falcons already have a rough outline of free-agency plans for 2027.

They factored how a possible Bates deal would impact those plans. They weren’t closing the door, but the Jaguars, who lost starting safety Eric Murray to a season-ending elbow injury in Week 8, were aggressive in their pursuit and offered a deal too good to pass.

There’s also the compensatory draft-pick dilemma. If Bates left in free agency, the Falcons would’ve been in line to receive an additional pick. But with Atlanta currently holding more cap space than anybody else in the NFL next spring, there’s a real chance it would spend enough to negate the opportunity to land a compensatory pick.

“We are giving up something valuable, and we understand that,” a source with knowledge of the Falcons’ thinking said. “Our judgment was that the total benefit to the organization justified that cost. … We believed this package cleared the threshold necessary to make a difficult move.”

Stefanski made clear Monday the Falcons, who are 3-6 and have lost four of their last five games but are still only a half-game out of first place in the lowly NFC South, would “in no way, shape or form punt on this season.” They’re still “very much in the thick of” the race, Stefanski said, and they trust their pieces.

But there’s no avoiding the significance of losing Bates.

The ninth-year veteran ranked second on the team with 60 tackles. He’s one of only three Falcons with an interception. He’s forced three fumbles, tops on the team and tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. He’s a four-time team captain.

Bates’ off-field impact is hard to quantify, but consider his teammates’ reaction to the trade.

Tight end Kyle Pitts, safety Xavier Watts and linebacker Josh Woods posted the heartbreak emoji on social media. Several teammates referred to Bates as their “brother.” One former Falcons defensive back told the AJC he’s unsure how the secondary will handle news of Bates’ trade, given he’s the “captain” of the back end.

Stefanski described the move as “tough,” especially from a personal level given the relationship he formed with Bates in a short time period, but it’s “the business part” of the NFL and a decision the Falcons believe gives them a real chance to build a better roster moving forward.

“Sometimes, you have one foot in the short-term (future), one foot in the long-term (future),” Stefanski said. “And there’s things like this that make your team better in the long run. Draft picks are the lifeblood of an organization. That’s something that we believe in.

“Understand that there’s some decisions we make organizationally that we feel strongly about doing for the football team, and that’s the truth.”

The Falcons will take a next-man-up approach to replace Bates on the field.

During training camp, when Bates missed time with an undisclosed injury, fourth-year pro DeMarcco Hellams took his place in the lineup. Stefanski also mentioned nickel back Billy Bowman Jr., who played safety in college, as a potential option. Sydney Brown, who’s played as a big-bodied nickel on running downs, can also play safety.

None will give the Falcons the same value as Bates, but that’s not the organization’s thought process. This is a long-term play and a chance to add more young talent to a roster with several building blocks.

The Falcons have an eight-year playoff drought that, after trading Bates, appears likely to become nine. But even before, the state of their roster and the downward trajectory of their season at large didn’t inspire confidence they’d be able to make a run even if they capitalized on the dismal shape of the NFC South.

With more draft capital, the Falcons hope to expedite their roster-building process. They’re currently set to have four picks in the top 100 next spring, which coupled with their salary-cap space, gives Cunningham, Ryan and Stefanski a real opportunity to reshape the franchise and chart a new path.

Now, it’s up to them to capitalize.