Braves Report: 3 optimistic predictions

Hey hey hey.

The unofficial second half of the Braves season has arrived, and beat writer Chad Bishop (@MrChadBishop) is here to offer some predictions.

They’re even optimistic ones!

Let’s jump right in.

CHAD PUTS HIS PREDICTION HAT ON

Ronald Acuña Jr. wants him to be right. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

By Chad Bishop, Braves beat writer

1️⃣ Ronald Acuña Jr. will be a big difference-maker.

It’s unfair to expect Acuña to return to the Braves’ lineup and to perform an MVP-type level. But what is fair is to understand Acuña’s presence alone changes the Braves’ perception for the better.

Acuña has played in just 53 games (55.7% of the season), yet the Braves have still won 55 games and have a 2½-game lead in the NL East coming out of the break. Acuña’s looming return makes the Braves even better, no matter how he is performing statistically. His defense in right field and his threat of doing damage from the top of the batting order are incomparable relative to the alternative.

Since the Braves gave him maybe a little extra time to rest and recover from his hamstring injury, one would think Acuña is poised to have an impactful next 2½ months.

• (Update from Tyler: The Braves announced Friday morning that Acuña’s rehab is moving to Triple-A Gwinnett, which is on the road in Toledo, Ohio, this weekend. He shouldn’t be there long, though.)

2️⃣ The Braves are going to do something significant before the trade deadline. They must.

After 95 games the Braves have put themselves in great position to make a run at a world championship, not just a playoff berth. The needs are clear: a starting pitcher (maybe even two?), a left-handed bat who can play some outfield or DH and gives the offense some oomph, and maybe even another bullpen arm (there can never be enough pitching).

Atlanta’s farm system is strong and the prospects are plenty. Now is the time to strike to strengthen an already strong club down the homestretch.

• Cunningham: Braves covet Sonny Gray, but are Sox selling?

3️⃣ The Braves will indeed make the playoffs.

The naysayers are aplenty on this issue, given the team’s horrid June and subpar July (so far), but Baseball References still gives the team a 96.5% chance to make the playoffs. FanGraphs says it’s 98.1% and ESPN puts the number at 92.1%.

Is a historic, embarrassing collapse possible? Sure. Likely? No.

Thanks Chad! And you’re right … only the Mets do historic, embarrassing collapses.

HOW YOU’RE FEELING ABOUT THE FUTURE

The results from last week’s midseason vibe check are in … and I’m pleased to report that most of our glasses are half full. Ish.

Here’s how things broke down:

• World Series or bust, baby: 13%
• Playoffs for sure but … : 42%
• I just don’t have a great feeling about it, ya know?: 21%
• Let’s see what the trade deadline brings: 24%

I realize that “but” isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement (I wrote it that way on purpose). But anything shy of complete doom and gloom counts as positivity, right?

🤔 I’ll also add on to Chad’s note above: If the Braves carry their current .579 winning percentage through the rest of the season, they’d finish with about 94 wins.

Going just 35-32 down the stretch would get them to 90 wins … which is historically on the high end of what’s needed to land a wild-card spot.

WHAT’S ON DECK: OWEN MURPHY’S FIRST START

Owen Murphy throws during spring training. (Hyosub Shin/AJC)

The Braves kick off a seven-game homestand Friday against the Rangers. Chris Sale is, predictably, slated to take the bump — but Saturday’s starter is a tad more surprising.

It’s Owen Murphy.

The top-5 prospect gets the nod after a couple of recent relief appearances (four total innings, one earned run) for the big league club.

So who is this dude?

📊 Murphy, 22, was a first-round pick out of the Chicago area in 2022. He started strong in the lower minors before Tommy John surgery derailed things in mid-2024.

📊 After a brief stint at Double-A to start 2026, he jumped to Triple-A Gwinnett — where he was 4-6 with a 3.88 ERA before last month’s call-up.

📊 His fastball sits in the low 90s with plenty of movement, and his slider and curveball are enviable as well. When he’s right, the walks are few and far between.

I’d reckon it’s the latter (and, uh, you know … all the injuries in the rotation) that prompted his promotion.

Go get ‘em, kid.

More about Braves-Rangers: Tune in Friday through Sunday at 7:15, 4:10 and 1:35 p.m., respectively.

• The Rangers won three of their last four games prior the All-Star break to finish 49-47, good enough to lead the middling American League West by 1½ games.
• Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.11 ERA) and MacKenzie Gore (5-8, 4.63) are expected to start the first two games of the series.
• Offensively, keep an eye on Jake Burger (16 home runs) and old friend Joc Pederson (15).
• Friday is “Christmas in July” theme night at Truist Park. On Sunday, the first 3,000 kiddos through the gates get a nifty little see-through purse.

After that, the Padres come to town for a four-game set … and best I can tell, Wednesday’s Ha-Seong Kim bobblehead giveaway is still a go.

Woof.

QUICK, SOME OTHER NEWS!

😬 Prepare your favorite trauma response: MLB announced the 2027 schedule on Thursday, and the Braves will start things off on the road … in Los Angeles. What could possibly go wrong?

💰 MLB wants a salary cap, players very much do not and possible stoppage looms. Sale weighed in during this week’s All-Star festivities.

⭐ Lots of lovely quotes in this story about all the Braves’ All-Stars … and this one about Drake Baldwin ... and this one about Ozzie Albies too.