Weekend Predictions: Will favored local teams pull off another sweep?

My streak of winning records in picking games against the spread ended at four weeks. My overall record is back below break-even. I wasn’t feeling good about all that until Falcons coach Raheem Morris changed my perspective.

Adopting that philosophy, I can declare that Weekend Predictions always picks well.

Now, I’ll try to get back on the winning side of things:

Panthers (+3½) at Falcons

The Falcons are one of four teams with losing streaks of at least four games. They are the only one of them with no chance to stumble into the No. 1 overall draft pick. Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot traded his team’s pick to the Rams so he could move up in the draft to select James Pearce Jr. The idea was that the pick would be low because the Falcons would be good — and, well, look at them now.

ESPN’s FPI projection gives the Panthers (14%) nearly three times better playoff odds than the Falcons (5%). I don’t buy that. The Falcons (3-6) are the better team if you throw out the embarrassing 30-0 loss in Carolina (5-4) and the inferior record. That’s air-tight logic for taking the Falcons and giving the points.

No. 16 Georgia Tech (-16½) at Boston College

Boston College has a weird football history. It regularly hires coaches who win more than they lose, despite its location in a college football wasteland. BC eventually fires the successful coach for one down season (or, in the case of Jeff Jagodzinski, for interviewing with the Jets) before repeating the pattern.

Bill O’Brien, the ex-Penn State coach/Georgia Tech offensive coordinator, is accelerating the timeline. He was 7-6 in his first season at BC, but the Eagles (1-9, 0-6 ACC) could be the worst power conference team this year. I still can’t resist a home ‘dog getting so many points, especially after Tech burned me when I backed them as big road favorites vs. Wake. Tech wins, but BC covers.

No. 10 Texas (+5½) at No. 5 Georgia

Archie Manning told Texas Monthly before the season that grandson Arch would stay four years at Texas. Arch said his grandfather apologized to him for saying that, which everyone interpreted to mean Arch was eyeing the door for the NFL. But maybe Archie, the No. 2 pick in the 1971 draft, was trying to tell Arch something.

Arch has been just OK in his first season as a starter (he’s been hurt by poor offensive line play and a weak running game). Against two elite defenses (Ohio State and Oklahoma) and one pretty good one (Florida), Manning produced 7.0 yards per pass attempt, four touchdowns and three interceptions. Georgia will make it tough on him, too, while its efficient-not-explosive offense grinds out enough points against a great defense to cover the spread.

Kennesaw State (-3½) at Jacksonville State

Kennesaw State hasn’t lost a game since Sept. 6 (56-9 at Indiana, now ranked No. 2). That’s back when there was still hope for a big season for the Falcons and my picks. KSU (5-0) and JSU (5-0) are the only unbeaten teams in Conference USA. The Owls will face a rowdy night-game atmosphere in Alabama for an ESPNU audience. They’ll win, but Jax State covers.

Marshall (-8½) at Georgia State

Georgia State’s upset victory over Vanderbilt happened last season, yet it feels like a fever dream from long ago. The Panthers are 1-16 against FBS opponents since then. All the losses were by margins of a touchdown or more. The Panthers were competitive at home against Sun Belt pacesetter James Madison last month, but that’s not enough evidence to back them in this game. Marshall is the pick.

Other college games of interest

UCLA (+32½) at No. 1 Ohio State

Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s name hasn’t come up for any of the open head-coach positions at top programs. That’s surprising. Schools usually call on a known name who won big in the distant past in case they miss out on coach who’s won big recently. The Buckeyes have smashed every opponent since beating Texas 14-7 in the opener. They’ll do it again this week. OSU is my pick.

No. 11 Oklahoma (+6½) at No. 4 Alabama

Oklahoma can aid Georgia’s SEC title-game bid by beating Alabama. It used to be the case that the potential rewards of an SEC championship and first-round bye in the CFP didn’t outweigh the risks of losing and missing the playoff altogether. But the selection committee/ESPN mitigated that risk by adopting opaque metrics that are meant to boost the chances of SEC teams, no matter how many games they lose. I like the Sooners with the points.

No. 9 Notre Dame (-12½) at No. 22 Pittsburgh

I hope the Panthers win this game so we can see what creative excuses the CFP committee/ESPN can come up with to keep Notre Dame in the mix. The Fighting Irish are the highest-ranked two-loss team. The defeats were against No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 15 Miami. But two of Notre Dame’s seven victories were against unranked ACC teams, which seems to only hurt the schedule strength of teams in the ACC, and two were against teams outside of the power conferences. Pitt is my pick.

No. 19 Virginia (+5½) at Duke

It’s better for Tech if Duke wins this game, so long as the teams end up in a two-way tie at the top of the ACC standings. It also would be good for the Jackets if Virginia wins the rest of its games, so long as SMU does too. What an exciting race to see which ACC team will get the chance to go one-and-done in the playoff. Give me UVA and the points.

Other NFL games of interest

Buccaneers (+5½) at Bills

The Falcons need the Buccaneers to pull a Falcons and find a way to squander a sure thing. With eight games to go last season, the Falcons led the Bucs by two games in the South (effectively three games, with the head-to-head tiebreaker considered) and blew it. Now, the Bucs lead the Falcons by three games with eight to play (the teams will meet in Tampa on Dec. 11). The Bills just pulled a Falcons by getting blown out by the Dolphins. The Bucs will cover.

Packers (-7) at Giants

Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz recently complained (again) about the “playoff-or-bust” mentality in college football. He should try the NFL, where there are no cushy places like Missouri to hide from high expectations. Packers coach Matt LaFleur might be in trouble, even though he’s 72-36-1 with five playoff berths in six seasons. I can’t trust Green Bay as a road favorite with the offense scuffling, so I’ll take New York as the home ‘dog.