Tiebreakers, scenarios show potential Georgia football path to SEC title game
ATHENS — As it currently sits, the Georgia Bulldogs need help if they are to return to the SEC championship game for a fifth consecutive trip.
Heading into this weekend’s game against Mississippi State, Georgia is 5-1 in conference play. The Mississippi State contest will be Georgia’s last road SEC game before the Bulldogs end conference play against Texas on Nov. 15.
The Bulldogs currently find themselves tied for third in the conference, sharing a 5-1 league record with Ole Miss. Georgia does have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rebels, thanks to the 43-35 win in October.
But for as much work as Georgia has done in league play, there are still plenty of twists and turns to come in SEC play. Especially with all but 1-6 South Carolina having multiple league games left.
Georgia does not control its own path to Atlanta. Even if Georgia beats Mississippi State and Texas and finishes with a 7-1 record, the Bulldogs would not go to Atlanta if Texas A&M and Alabama each win their final three SEC games.
The Aggies and Crimson Tide are unbeaten in conference play at 5-0, but the two have tricky games remaining: No. 3 Texas A&M visits No. 11 Texas and No. 4 Alabama hosts No. 12 Oklahoma.
Alabama also holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over Georgia, as the Crimson Tide beat Georgia 27-24 earlier this season. In the event that Alabama and Georgia are the only two teams that finish with the same record, Alabama would get the nod over Georgia. If Texas A&M goes 8-0, Georgia goes 7-1 and Alabama goes 7-1, Texas A&M and Alabama would play for the SEC championship Dec. 6.
But in the event of a multi-team tiebreaker, things may break Georgia’s way. If Ole Miss, Georgia and Texas A&M all finish 7-1, because of opponents’ conference combined win percentage, Georgia most likely would get the nod over the Aggies and Ole Miss.
If Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M and Ole Miss all finish with a 7-1 record, Georgia and Alabama most likely would end up playing for the conference championship again because of their opponents’ combined conference winning percentage.
Ole Miss finishing with one loss helps Georgia greatly, as it props up their opponents’ win percentage, as Texas A&M and Alabama will not play the Rebels this season.
But say Ole Miss gets tripped up and Georgia finishes with a 7-1 record. The Bulldogs would have the tiebreaker over a 7-1 Texas A&M but not a 7-1 Alabama. Ole Miss and Texas are the only other teams that can finish with a 7-1 record in SEC play, but Georgia and Texas cannot each finish with a 7-1 record. In some ways, Georgia’s Nov. 15 game against Texas is an SEC championship game elimination game, and perhaps even for a College Football Playoff spot.
College football has never been the most orderly sport, allowing chaos to reign. While we can’t predict every scenario, in a world where Georgia, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss all finish with 6-2 league records, Oklahoma and Alabama would play for the SEC championship because of opponents’ conference combined win percentage. Georgia would finish third, behind Alabama, thanks to the head-to-head loss.
Of course, there is the fair question of whether Georgia should even want to play in the SEC title game. Players and Kirby Smart will tell you yes, given what that game means to the program. Should Georgia get to Atlanta, it would be the second time in league history that a program has gone to five consecutive SEC championship games. Florida did it from 1992 through 1996.
But Georgia lost starting quarterback Carson Beck to injury in last season’s SEC championship win over Texas. That impacted how Georgia played in the College Football Playoff against Notre Dame.
Those are future problems for Georgia. For the moment, the Bulldogs have to take care of business in SEC play. That starts with Mississippi State this weekend.
“We’ve got our hands full,” Smart said. “I do know that it’ll take care of itself if you handle your business, and if you don’t you’ll be worried about a lot of those things. That’s just the state of college football, where it is. We’re trying to control what we can control right now, what’s in our hands.”
SEC championship game tiebreakers, scenarios
- Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- Record versus all common conference opponents among the tied teams
- Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among the tied teams
- Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams
- Capped relative total scoring margin versus all conference opponents among the tied teams
- Random draw of the tied teams
About the Author
Connor Riley has been covering the University of Georgia since 2014 before moving to DawgNation full-time before the 2018 season. He helps in all areas of the site such as team coverage, recruiting, video production, social media and podcasting. He graduated from the University of Georgia in 2016.
