With the offseason complete, let’s examine the Falcons’ case to win the NFC South in 2025.
Tampa Bay has won the past four division titles and likely will enter the season as the favorite. The Panthers still are rebuilding and the aging Saints have fallen off.
Last season the Falcons swept the Bucs, but collapsed down the stretch and kicked away a three-game lead. The Falcons started 6-3 and finished 8-9 to post their seventh consecutive losing season. The Falcons have not qualified for the playoffs since 2017.
If the Falcons are going to fly, the offense, with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at the controls, will have to carry the team in the offensively driven NFL.
The Falcons are projected to have the 10th best offense in the league by Pro Football & Sports Network.
The rankings combine various stats and analytics: yards per play; points per drive; turnover percentage; success rate against the run and pass; third-down conversion rate; red-zone efficiency; pressure percentage when not blitzing; and various expected points added measures against both the run and pass. They are then weighted and a final score is given that is converted to a traditional letter grade.
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
The Detroit Lions, who led the league in scoring last season at 33.2 points per game, were the No. 1 ranked team.
The Falcons’ offense averaged 32 points per game with Penix at the controls over the final three games of last season.
“For the Atlanta Falcons to sneak into the top 10 in a year that featured the demise of Kirk Cousins and the insertion of a rookie at the worst possible time was amazing,” according to PFSN. “Bijan Robinson is as gifted as any running back in the game today, and (wide receiver) Drake London has established himself as a legitimate top threat in an above-average passing attack.”
The development of Penix will be key, but it was noted that the team has invested heavily in the offense, which should feature seven former first-round picks (five taken within the top 10 picks).
“It stands to reason that this could be viewed as a floor ranking, with the median being a few slots higher,” according to PFSN.
In addition to the Lions, the Ravens, Bucs, Bills, Cardinals, Commanders, Bengals, Packers and 49ers are rated ahead of the Falcons.
Last season, the Falcons beat the Bucs 36-30 on Oct. 3 to move to 3-2. The Falcons prevailed 31-26 on Oct. 27 in Tampa, Florida, to improve to 5-3.
Injuries could change things. Bucs defensive tackle Calijah Kancey didn’t play in the first meeting, and six-time Pro Bowl and six-time All-Pro wide receiver Mike Evans didn’t play in the second meeting.
While the Falcons were closing the season by losing six of their final eight games, the Bucs won five of their final eight to overtake the Falcons and claim the division title at 10-7.
The Falcons will open the season against the Bucs on Sept. 7 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. They will not play again until Week 15, when they meet Dec. 11 in Tampa.
To win the NFC South, the Falcons’ retooled defense must make major strides under new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.
The Falcons invested heavily in their pass-rush this offseason. They signed veteran Leonard Floyd during free agency. The former Georgia standout has 66.5 career sacks.
The Falcons also drafted former Georgia standout Jalon Walker in the first round (15th overall) of the draft and traded back into the first round to draft former Tennessee standout James Pearce Jr. (26th overall).
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Most of the top pass-rush prospects don’t make an immediate impact. Per Football Reference, since sacks became an official statistic in 1982, only 27 of 428 linemen and linebackers drafted in the first round recorded 10 sacks or more as rookies.
Vic Beasley, who was drafted in 2015, had four sacks as a rookie for the Falcons. Khalil Mack, who was making the jump from the University of Buffalo to the NFL, had four sacks as a rookie in 2014. J.J. Watt had 5.5 sacks as a rookie in 2011 and T.J. Watt had seven sacks in 2017.
Jevon Kearse led the rookie group with 14.5 sacks for the Titans in 1999.
Also, the Falcons must stabilize their field-goal kicking situation. Former Pro Bowl kicker Younghoe Koo missed nine field goals last season before going on injured reserve with a right hip injury. Lenny Krieg, an international player from German, was signed to compete for the position after a fine showing at the NFL scouting combine.
If the offense continues to flourish under Penix, the defense gets some teeth and field goals are being made, the Falcons have a path to the NFC South title.
About the Author
Keep Reading
The Latest
Featured
