No team has started 0-7 team and gone on to make the playoffs. The Braves were candidates to be an exception because they were a good team that was underachieving, not a bad one performing as expected. But it’s past Memorial Day, the traditional time to take stock of the season, and they haven’t been much better since then.
After finally getting their record above break-even twice, the Braves (26-30) have lost seven of their past nine games. They lost 5-1 on Friday at Truist Park to the Red Sox, who aren’t good. The Braves aren’t, either, even though most of the names are the same from the 2023 team set offensive records and won 104 games.
Those hitters aren’t producing the same. Inconsistent offense and a shaky bullpen are why the Braves are 9½ games behind in the National League East and six games back in the wild-card race. At some point, the 2023 season will become the outlier and what’s happened since then will be the norm.
The Braves hoped the season-high nine runs they scored in a victory at Philadelphia on Thursday would get them going. Instead, the next day they scored less than two runs for the 11th time this season. They aren’t going to overcome the 0-7 start with occasional offensive outbursts amid long scoring droughts.
“Every game, the magnitude is just that much more when you are trying to play some catch up,” Braves third baseman Austin Riley said before Friday’s game. “Every situation is that big moment. Once you get in a routine, get in a flow of things, you are winning some ballgames, (then) you start trusting that process a little bit more. We just need to do that.”
Can the Braves do that, though? Better health can only help so much. Ronald Acuña Jr. is back after missing a year, but he can’t carry the lineup by himself. Spencer Strider also returned after a year away, but starting pitching hasn’t been the main issue for the Braves.
There’s always a chance the Braves will enhance their lineup before the July 31 trade deadline. I don’t see how they can make big improvements without trading good hitters that they’ve signed for the long term. That’s a better strategy for the offseason than midseason.
The Braves are stuck hoping that more of their good hitters produce as expected.
“We get a guy hot here or there, but we just can’t get it rolling as a club,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “I don’t know what the answer is, really. It’s just keep running them out there, keep playing. It’s not for a lack of effort, not for a lack of work. These guys are doing everything right.
“It’s just not happening consistently as a team where we are just kind of keeping that line moving and making things happen like we have in the past.”
The Braves made it look easy in 2023 with the same core of hitters they have now. That season, they tied the MLB record for home runs and set the mark for slugging percentage. Since the start of the last season, all those players except for Marcell Ozuna have produced significantly below their career norms.
Every Braves regular in 2023 except Orlando Arcia produced a park-adjusted OPS of at least 100, which is average (Arcia was close at 99). Four players produced an OPS+ of 125 or better that year. But from the start of the 2024 season through Thursday, four Braves hitters had an OPS+ of less than 100 when counting Arcia, who was released last weekend. Only Ozuna (154) had an OPS+ of better than 125 during that time.
Even if Braves hitters manage to collectively produce for the first time since 2023, the team has a lot of ground to make up in the standings.
The Braves can forget about winning the East. The Braves won’t overtake the Phillies or Mets for the division title. The chances are high that whichever one of those teams doesn’t win the division will earn one NL wild card, which would leave two up for grabs.
The Mets and Padres lead the wild-card pack. The Cardinals gave surged into third with an 18-7 record in May, better than every NL team except the Phillies (19-7). The rest of the NL playoff hopefuls have been middling or worse this month. The Braves are behind seven of them in the wild-card race. That’s the 0-7 start weighing them down.
The Braves desperately need an extended hot streak like the Cardinals and Phillies have had. It’s been more than a year since the Braves have done that. They were 17-8 in April 2024. The best they’ve managed in the seven full months since then is 16-13 in August 2024 and 14-11 this April.
That 0-7 start is still looming over the Braves. None of the 27 teams to start that poorly have made the postseason during the World Series era (since 1903). None of the nine 0-7 teams during the wild-card era have made the playoffs even as the field expanded to eight teams (1994-2011), 10 teams (2012-19, 2021) and 12 teams (2022 to present).
“We’ve made some good runs before, and I don’t see any reason why we can’t do it (again),” Braves first baseman Matt Olson said.
I’ve seen a lot of reasons to doubt that it can happen. Playing good the rest of the way may not be enough. The Braves would have to go 64-42 the rest of the season to finish with 90 wins, which might be what it takes to earn a wild card in the NL.
Hard to believe that will happen when it’s nearly June and the standings say the Braves aren’t much better now than when they were 0-7.
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