Takeaways from the AJC’s final poll before the presidential election
Today’s newsletter highlights include:
- Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s political ads target Fulton County district attorney.
- Election law expert says Elon Musk’s $1 million giveaway is likely illegal.
- State lawmakers visit Sapelo Island after weekend tragedy.
“Neither side has this in the bag.”
That’s the assessment from University of Georgia political scientist Trey Hood, who oversaw The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s final poll of the presidential race before the November election.
Former President Donald Trump narrowly leads 47% to 43% over Harris, which is just outside the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. But with 8% of likely voters still undecided, the race could break either way as early voting enters its second week.
Some takeaways:
- Harris is struggling to win over Black voters in numbers she needs. Nearly 74% of Black voters in Georgia back the vice president, but that’s less than the 88% who voted for Joe Biden when he barely won the state in 2020.
- The problem for Harris likely isn’t Trump, but apathy. Just 8% of Black voters say they will vote for the former president. Meanwhile, one in five are undecided.
- Trump is virtually tied with Harris among voters who are 65 and older, a demographic that is normally firmly behind Republican candidates. He also trails Harris among independent voters. 41% to 35%.
- The gender gap continues to grow, as Trump leads 59% to 28% among men and Harris is ahead 55% to 37% among women.
***
GOOD MORNING! The last day to vote in the presidential election is two weeks from today. As the AJC’s Mark Niesse reports, Georgia set an early voting record every day last week.
Here are three things to know for today:
- Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns joined with legislative leaders from other states asking Congress to approve more aid for Hurricane Helene recovery efforts, the AJC’s Drew Kann reports.
- Former President Donald Trump again made false claims about the federal government’s hurricane response while speaking in North Carolina.
- Former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney told a crowd in Michigan on Monday that “you can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody” during a campaign appearance with Vice President Kamala Harris.
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MILLION DOLLAR VOTERS? Did Elon Musk offer you a million dollars? Don’t get too excited. It could be illegal.
The billionaire backer of former President Donald Trump offered people in swing states, including Georgia, a chance to win $1 million by simply signing a petition pledging to support the U.S. Constitution. But only registered voters in swing states were eligible.
It’s that last part that likely runs afoul of both state and federal law, according to Bryan Tyson, an election law attorney based in Atlanta.
Tyson pointed to a state law that says anyone who gives money to someone “for the purpose of registering as a voter” is guilty of a felony. There’s also a federal law that says the same thing.
“It’s the conditional nature of it. He has to offer an option for people who aren’t registered. If he did that, he’s fine,” Tyson said.
It’s why when Krispy Kreme offers free doughnuts on Election Day, they have to offer them to everyone, not just people who show them an “I voted” sticker.
Tyson said it’s also why it was OK for a political action committee backing Herschel Walker’s 2022 U.S. Senate campaign to hand out free gas cards to people at gas stations — as long as they gave them to everyone with no conditions.
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DA DIVIDE. Former GOP U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis are engaged in a high-stakes back-and-forth that seems destined to help motivate their core supporters.
Loeffler, who helped recruit Republican Courtney Kramer to challenge Willis, has launched cutting ads through her Greater Georgia political organization targeting her as a “failed” prosecutor.
“We deserve a district attorney who will do the job to keep us safe,” said the ad’s narrator. “We deserve better than Fani Willis.”
Willis became a nationally known figure — and a top GOP target — for bringing the election interference case against former President Donald Trump and his allies.
And though she’s expected to handily win another term in the deep-blue county, she’s not averse to painting Loeffler’s ad as a threat to her reelection.
“This race is their top priority and they’ll stop at nothing to get rid of me,” read a Willis fundraising appeal that invoked the ad, asking for donors to “contribute whatever you can during this crucial time.”
***
UNITY ON SAPELO. About a dozen members of the Georgia Legislative Black Caucus visited Sapelo Island on Monday after a state-owned gangway collapsed over the weekend and killed seven people who were waiting to board a ferry.
The tragedy occurred during Sapelo Cultural Day, an annual celebration of the island’s Gullah-Geechee residents who are the descendants of enslaved West Africans that worked Sapelo’s plantations before the Civil War.
Legislative Black Caucus chair Carl Gilliard, D-Savannah, and state Rep. Solomon Adesanya, D-Marietta, led the conversation with members of the Sapelo Island Cultural and Revitalization Society. Gilliard offered condolences and pledged support for the group in the tragedy’s aftermath while also encouraging them to build a relationship with caucus members, the AJC’s Adam Van Brimmer reports.
The dignitaries’ visit attracted residents from across Hog Hammock, the Gullah Geechee’s tiny unincorporated community. Gilliard said their visit was about showing unity with Sapelo residents in the wake of such a tragic event.
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ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGE. Atlanta-based attorney Stefan Passantino says recently released text messages bolster his lawsuit against the U.S. House Committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Passantino was the attorney for Cassidy Hutchinson, who became the star witness for the committee and testified that Passantino had promised her a job and other support if she remained loyal to former President Donald Trump.
Republicans, led by U.S. Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Cassville, launched their own investigation of the committee’s work. Last week, they released copies of text messages that showed Hutchinson communicating with then-U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, either directly or through a third party. Cheney, a Republican, was vice chairwoman of the Jan. 6 Committee.
Some of that communication had already been recounted in Hutchinson’s memoir, released a year ago. However, Passantino believes the text messages show solid evidence that Cheney was communicating with Hutchinson behind his back and working to undermine him.
But while Passantino and Loudermilk see evidence of possibly unethical and illegal activities, the lawmaker who served as chairman of the Jan. 6 Committee said their criticism is nothing more than a “sad exercise in revisionism.”
“Barry Loudermilk’s so-called investigation of the January 6th Select Committee’s work is an unfortunate and desperate attempt to gaslight the American public about a violent insurrection that threatened the fabric of our democracy,” U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Mississippi, said in a statement to the AJC. “In fact, unsurprisingly, when his subcommittee has released new information, it has actually verified much of the Select Committee’s work.”
***
JAN. 6 UPDATE. There are now 34 people with Georgia ties who have been arrested in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.
The FBI arrested Cylester William Maxwell, 42, of Milton, last week. They say they have video of Maxwell and a bunch of other people using an 8 x 10 foot Donald Trump campaign sign as a battering ram to break through a line of police officers, the AJC’s Chris Joyner reports.
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BIOLAB LAWSUIT. Rockdale County commissioners plan to sue pool chemical company BioLab in hopes of shuttering its facility following a fire last month that sent up a massive toxic plume and forced thousands of Rockdale residents to evacuate.
The AJC’s Dylan Jackson spoke to Rockdale County Commissioner Sherri Washington, who said that the lawsuit should be filed later this week after commissioners approve funding to move forward. More than a dozen other cases have been filed in recent weeks against the company by Rockdale residents and business owners.
BioLab has promised to remediate the situation. But Rockdale commissioners said the company has not communicated well with county officials and declined to participate in a news conference held by state and county officials last week.
“They have not been forthcoming in getting our attention and reaching out to us,” Williams said.
***
LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia,” the hosts discuss the latest AJC poll with University of Georgia Political Science Professor Trey Hood, former Republican U.S. Rep. Doug Collins, former Democratic state Rep. Brenda Lopez of Gwinnett County and state Sen. Jason Anavitarte, R-Dallas.
Be sure to download the AJC’s Politically Georgia podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Episodes are uploaded by noon each day, just in time to have lunch with us. You can also listen live at 10 a.m. EDT on 90.1 FM WABE. Have a question for the show? Give us a call at 770-810-5297.
On Monday’s show, Democratic strategist Rick Dent talked about political ads and Jeff Graham, executive director of Georgia Equality, discussed LGBTQ voters.
***
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. Today’s happenings:
- Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, husband of Vice President Kamala Harris, will speak at campaign events in Cary and Carrboro, North Carolina.
- Vice President Kamala Harris will record interviews with journalists from NBC and Telemundo.
- U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., and U.S. Rep. Sanford Bishop, D-Albany, will headline a Get Out The Vote event for the Harris-Walz ticket in Macon.
- Former President Donald Trump will host a roundtable with Latino leaders in Miami, Florida, and then speak at a campaign rally in Greensboro, North Carolina.
- Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, will speak at rallies in Peoria and Tucson, Arizona.
- Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, and former President Barack Obama will headline a rally in Madison, Wisconsin. Walz will then speak at a rally in Racine, Wisconsin, while Obama will do the same in Detroit.
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SHOUTOUTS. Congrats:
- To renowned conservationist Sally Bethea, who was awarded the Georgia First Amendment Foundation’s Charles L. Weltner Freedom of Information Award. Bethea was introduced at the sold-out ceremony by former Gov. Roy Barnes, who told the crowd how he upended the “good ol’ boy” network at the Department of Natural Resources by appointing her to the board.
Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that! Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.
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AS ALWAYS, send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.
About the Authors
Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution's chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.
Tia Mitchell is the AJC’s Washington Bureau Chief and a co-host of the "Politically Georgia" podcast. She writes about Georgia’s congressional delegation, campaigns, elections and the impact that decisions made in D.C. have on residents of the Peach State.
Patricia Murphy is the AJC's senior political columnist. She was previously a nationally syndicated columnist for CQ Roll Call, national political reporter for the Daily Beast and Politics Daily, and wrote for The Washington Post and Garden & Gun. She graduated from Vanderbilt and holds a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.
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