How voters are splitting Georgia’s top races

Today’s newsletter highlights:

• Keisha Lance Bottoms’ deep-pocketed allies step up.
• Georgia early voting tops 1 million.
• Nikema Williams hears directly from veterans at town hall.

The polling divide

One of the most revealing findings in the new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll isn’t just who’s ahead in Georgia’s biggest races. It’s how differently voters are sizing up the candidates on the same ballot.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff and nominee for governor Keisha Lance Bottoms have almost identical support from their party’s base. Both draw 88% of Black voters. And both have overwhelming backing from Democrats.

But the picture gets fuzzier if you move beyond those core Democratic constituencies.

Among independents, Ossoff holds a 49-30 advantage over Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins. But Bottoms’ 43-38 lead over Republican Rick Jackson gives her less breathing room.

The flip side is also telling. Jackson draws support from 94% of Republicans, compared with 86% for Collins, suggesting the Senate nominee has yet to consolidate his party’s base.

Jackson is also doing better among white voters, with 66% backing Jackson compared with 58% for Collins.

That helps explain why Ossoff holds a 48-40 advantage in the Senate race while Jackson and Bottoms are deadlocked in their contest for governor.

We asked GOP strategist Chip Lake to make sense of the divide, particularly as early voting surges in Democratic strongholds.

“Two things can be true at once. Georgia isn’t immune to the national environment, and Democrats are turning out as we expected, which is a headwind for Republicans in the Senate race,” Lake said. “But the governor’s race is a different animal. Rick Jackson has built support in parts of metro Atlanta that Republicans usually don’t reach, so I’d be careful reading the early vote as great news for Bottoms — especially with Republicans likely to win Election Day voters.”

We expect plenty of split-ticket voters to cast ballots this cycle. But we don’t yet know how many voters will cross party lines. The poll shows how some of them are starting to make their calculations.

Things to know

Good morning! The midterms are in 13 days. Early voting ends Oct. 30. Here are three things to know for today:

• A new AJC poll shows Ossoff with a sizable lead over Collins.
• The Atlanta City Council’s rare vote to support a boycott of Starbucks on Monday sparked a broader discussion over whether it’s appropriate for elected officials to wade that far into ongoing labor disputes, Shaddi Abusaid reports.
• Across Georgia, likely women voters named the cost of living as the single most important issue facing the state heading into the midterm elections, according to the latest AJC poll, Sophia Eppley reports.

Big money

Bottoms is getting reinforcements from some deep-pocketed friends.

Billionaire Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is putting $1 million toward her bid for governor, Politico reported.

And former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is expected to steer some of his $80 million late-election spending spree her way, too.

It won’t match Jackson’s personal spending. But for Democrats trying to keep pace with his checkbook, it’s a welcome start.

Record turnout

Speaking of early voting, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced yet another day of record breaking turnout ahead of Election Day.

Georgia surpassed the one million mark for in-person early votes by noon Tuesday, with 1,007,015 total votes cast at early voting locations. That’s a 12% increase over the same point in 2022, when 894,412 Georgians had voted early, in-person.

Along with in-person voting, 48,916 absentee ballots have been accepted as of before noon Tuesday, bringing overall turnout to 1,055,931.

Strategists in both parties caution that it’s hard to say whether the jump will represent a larger increase in overall turnout and enthusiasm, or if some of 2022’s mail-in voters have decided that casting a ballot in person is the best way to go.

“We continue to break records each day of early voting,” Raffensperger said. “This is evidence that Georgians trust our election process. The strong turnout reflects the work our 159 county election officials do to make our elections free, fair, and fast.”

Listen up

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast Greg Bluestein and Riley Bunch break down the statewide contests and Georgia House races that could matter most after Election Day.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Veterans’ affairs

U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams held a town hall meeting and a resource fair on Tuesday especially for veterans. Her office said that the event was organized to allow the Atlanta Democrat to hear directly from former service members about their concerns and needs.