The evening Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker abandoned his bid for president, John Kasich’s campaign sent this message to supporters:
“Our country needs a common-sense conservative in the White House,” national campaign strategist John Weaver wrote. “Gov. John Kasich is the only Midwestern governor in the race who can bring our values to Washington, D.C.” And a few lines later, the red button: “DONATE NOW.”
Presidential campaigns like Kasich’s have until Wednesday to load their coffers with enough money to display their strength ahead of the third-quarter fundraising deadline. For Kasich, the financial report — his first as a declared candidate — offers an opportunity to show he belongs in the tier of experienced politicians with staying power.
After Kasich launched his campaign July 21, he got glowing reviews of his first debate performance and, boosted by sunny ads from allies, climbed to as high as second place in polling in New Hampshire. After a quiet CNN debate performance, his Granite State pollinghas settled into a solid second tier – joining Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in the leading group of established politicians hoping the Donald Trump-Carly Fiorina-Ben Carson fever peters out.
Kasich’s polling nationally, meanwhile, has gradually inched up, giving him a chance to move a couple of spots from the edge of the debate stage, in Rubio and Bush territory.
His polling still isn’t great, but he’s in good company.
Among New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary voters, Kasich is now tied for fifth. The latest poll from the University of New Hampshire, conducted after the CNN debate, put Trump and Fiorina first and second, with 26% and 16%. Then comes a cluster of Rubio (9%), Carson (8%), Bush (7%) and Kasich (7%).
Should Kasich be concerned about his fall from second place?
“Only if it dries up his ability to raise funds,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. “Voters right now aren’t deciding who they’re going to vote for for president. They’re telling pollsters who they like or who they would vote for if the election was today. As the election draws closer, the fact that they’re voting for the next president is going to be more in the forefront of their minds.”
For now, Kasich must stay competitive with Rubio and Bush, “the top ‘traditional’ candidates,” Smith said.
He’s still all-in on New Hampshire …
Among the top 10 Republican candidates, Kasich’s 14 visits to New Hampshire rank second only to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s 20 trips to the Granite State, according to the National Journal’s travel tracker.
“A strong finish in New Hampshire could make him a preeminent establishment choice, especially if he finishes ahead of Bush,” the forecasting team at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball newsletter wrote last week of Kasich.
The political action committees supporting Kasich will have spent $5.4 million through Oct. 12 to run commercials on the increasingly crowded New Hampshire airwaves. Their latest features — what else? — a Kasich helicopter, in a lighthearted play on one of Trump’s signatures.
And when Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, told National Journal he wanted to look at shaking up which states host the nation’s first primaries and caucuses after 2016, Kasich’s campaign fired off a statement that New Hampshire (and Iowa) residents are active and knowledgeable and have earned the responsibility of voting first.
… while building a national presence.
Kasich’s campaign is making noise about a stronger effort in Iowa, whose Republican caucus voters tend to support more conservative candidates. On Wednesday, the governor will make his second visit to the state in less than a week.
Meanwhile, Kasich is ramping up in Michigan, in an effort to notch back-to-back primary wins. (Michigan’s primary falls one week before Ohio’s.) He’s hired Michigan Republican Party Executive Director Jeff Timmer as his Michigan director. He’s on the ballot in Kansas and Nevada. He has trotted out endorsements in Georgia, Boston and Idaho.
He’s reaching out to conservatives …
A few Kasich answers in the CNN debate may have left the wrong impression with conservatives as he defended two of his more moderate positions. Breaking with many Republican candidates, Kasich advocated for keeping the Iran deal unless Iran breaks it and against shutting down the government over defunding Planned Parenthood — a tactic that will backfire, Kasich says.
A few days later, Kasich emphasized his conservative credentials on Iran and abortion without walking back his positions.
In an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, Kasich said he thought U.S. senators should have taken more extreme measures to bring a vote on a resolution that would derail the Iran deal. Senators voted 58-42 this month to bring to the floor a resolution disapproving the deal. Under current Senate rules, they needed 60 votes to advance the resolution; the “nuclear option” Kasich advocated for would have required only 51 votes.
Kasich also broke with his typical refusal to comment on bills pending in the Legislature, telling CNN he’d sign a controversial bill that would ban abortions based on a fetal diagnosis of Down syndrome.
Then, on Friday, the Ohio Department of Health, part of Kasich’s administration, moved to deny licenses for Southwest Ohio’s two remaining abortion clinics. Mike Gonidakis, president of Ohio Right to Life, tweeted: “PRAISE THE LORD! 2 more abortion mills shut down by John Kasich!!”
… but not the ones ‘just yelling and screaming.’
Still, Kasich is sticking with his “adult-in-the-room” shtick. Over the weekend, candidates such as Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz presided over conservatives’ cheering Boehner’s retirement.
But Kasich praised Boehner, citing his own experience in Congress, including helping to balance the federal budget when Boehner chaired the House Republican Conference in the late 1990s.
“A lot of people who are doing the complaining and saying, ‘Why isn’t anything getting done?’ — maybe they ought to look in the mirror. What have they accomplished? I mean, are they just speechmakers? Are they people out there just yelling and screaming?” Kasich told CBS’ Face the Nation Sunday. “At the end of the day, I believe the Republican Party will pick someone who is a reformer, who is a change agent, who has accomplished things and has experience.”
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