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TCU, Houston coaches should love their AP poll position

Houston head coach Tom Herman waves his arms as he walks the sidelines during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Central Florida, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
Houston head coach Tom Herman waves his arms as he walks the sidelines during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Central Florida, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
By Jimmy Burch
Aug 24, 2016

Truth be known, two coaches with the biggest reasons to celebrate Sunday's placement in The Associated Press' preseason college football poll have Texas addresses.

TCU coach Gary Patterson, whose team opened at No. 13, oversees the top-ranked team in the Lone Star State. Houston's Tom Herman, whose team harbors College Football Playoff aspirations despite playing in a non-Power 5 league, opened at No. 15.

Bottom line: Both teams ranked high enough to please their fan bases because they're well ahead of unranked squads from Texas and Texas A&M, as well as No. 23 Baylor. But neither maintained its top-10 status from last year's final poll, when TCU finished No. 7 and Houston was No. 8.

That offers a perceived slight on the respect front for both coaches to stress to players between now and their Sept. 3 season openers. Patterson and Herman will love that.

It also eliminates TCU and Houston from being under the national microscope that comes with preseason top-10 expectations, a potentially crippling mental hurdle for teams not equipped to handle that challenge.

Want proof? Eight of the past nine teams ranked No. 1 in the preseason poll failed to reach the College Football Playoff or the BCS national championship game in that season. The lone exception, Florida State in 2014, fell in the semifinals of the inaugural CFP playoff.

Of the 10 schools that began last season ranked among the nation's top-10, only four finished there as well: Alabama (No. 1), Ohio State (No. 4), Michigan State (No. 6) and TCU (No. 7). That's a 40 percent conversion rate for the 2015 preseason favorites.

But it reflects well on TCU, which returns 13 starters from last year's 11-2 team as well as six other potential starters who missed all or part of last season with injuries. Those numbers explain why the Horned Frogs deserve to start this season as the top-ranked team in Texas.

Houston, a 13-1 team last season, gets its chance to strut its playoff mettle in its opener when the Cougars meet No. 3 Oklahoma at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Sept. 3 contest looms as a one-day referendum on the Cougars' CFP hopes this season. It also will tell us a lot about the Sooners, the defending Big 12 champions who were one of seven teams to receive at least one first-place vote in Sunday's poll.

Having so many teams earn first-place votes underscores the one undeniable truth about the 2016 season: No team has a juggernaut assembled on paper.

Alabama, the top-ranked team, remains undecided about its starting quarterback. Clemson, the No. 2 team, features the most dynamic player in college football (quarterback Deshaun Watson) but returns only four defensive starters from last year's 14-1 team. No other school received more than five first-place votes, meaning that a surge into the CFP playoff bracket by one or more teams from outside the top 10 should not surprise anyone.

What other lessons can we take away from Sunday's inaugural poll? Let's start with these:

Most overlooked teams: Miami, arguably the best team in the ACC Coastal Division, and San Diego State, the defending Mountain West champ that returns 14 starters from an 11-3 team, deserved better treatment in the inaugural poll. Both finished unranked, with Miami receiving 159 voting points (most among unranked teams) and San Diego State with 46 points.

Most overhyped teams: No. 20 Southern California lost six games last season and lost veteran QB Cody Kessler to graduation. Expect their poll position to be short-lived after facing No. 1 Alabama in their opener, Sept. 3 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Also deserving a raised eyebrow: No. 6 Ohio State received one first-place vote despite returning the fewest starters (6) of any FBS school this season.

Most question marks: No. 23 Baylor, a 10-3 team last season, earned what amounted to a courtesy nod from voters in Sunday's poll despite losing 16 players from its spring roster after the May dismissal of former coach Art Briles amid the school's sexual assault scandal. We'll learn if that ranking is accurate when the Bears face No. 21 Oklahoma State on Sept. 24 in Waco.

Fewest question marks: On paper, no team checks more preseason boxes than No. 9 Tennessee. The Volunteers return 17 starters from a 9-4 team that closed with a six-game winning streak. The list includes QB Joshua Dobbs, a third-year starter and one of the few proven SEC returnees at quarterback. Also back: the starting punter and kicker, bringing the total to 19 for those who want to count specialists. They are not counted here.

Hottest coaching seats: Call it a tie between the guys who oversee unranked contingents from Texas (Charlie Strong) and Texas A&M (Kevin Sumlin) in pivotal seasons for both programs.

Under-the-radar surprise candidate: Texas Tech received zero votes from AP voters despite returning 12 starters from a 7-6 team, including the quarterback who led the nation in total offense (Patrick Mahomes, 393 yards per game). If a porous defense improves, and it should, the Red Raiders could be mainstays in the poll by Oct. 1.

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Jimmy Burch

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