The state playoffs have arrived, and with them come my annual predictions. For what it’s worth, I correctly picked the winner and matchup of the football playoffs in the fall.
Below are my predictions for the boys and girls state playoffs, which tip off Tuesday. For complete results of all eight Class 2A region tournaments, go here.
Accompanying my predictions are quadrant-by-quadrant breakdowns with my initial thoughts on the tournaments.
BOYS
Credit: Predictions by Adam Krohn
Credit: Predictions by Adam Krohn
In the past, at least on the boys’ side, the Augusta area teams have consistently proved me wrong when I’ve picked against them, so I’m not doing that this year. Instead, I have a rematch from the 2022 state championship, and I have the same winner — the Westside Patriots.
Should the Patriots pull off the tournament win, it would be their third straight 2A championship. The only other 2A school to three-peat on the boys’ side is Mitchell-Baker (1998-2000).
Upper-left
The No. 4 Butler Bulldogs (20-5) have been winning with defense and a balanced scoring attack, and that includes a 56-49 win over Westside in late December. I have them returning to the championship and, unfortunately for them, meeting the same fate against the Patriots.
Spencer (23-3), South Atlanta (21-8)and Callaway (14-13) are all unranked, but capable of making noise. Spencer is two years removed from a 3A title. In the Region 6 tournament, No. 4 seed South Atlanta knocked off No. 1 seed Walker in the semifinals, booting it from the top 10. The biggest upset of all region tournaments came in 5-2A, where Callaway beat No. 5 Columbia 72-71 in the championship. Columbia hadn’t lost a region game all season, and beat Callaway 73-53 and 65-38 in the regular season.
Lower-left
This is a pretty deep quadrant that could feature a top 5 matchup in Round 2, with No. 4 Toombs County (25-2) set up to host No. 2 Thomson (21-3). Toombs County has been steadily building its program for this moment. Last year in the state playoffs, Thomson, as a No. 4 seed, drew Windsor Forest for one of two matchups between ranked teams in Round 1, and lost. Longtime Thomson coach Michael Thomas, Sr. said the team is determined to get something done in these playoffs.
No. 6 Athens Academy (21-5) marks a third ranked team in the quadrant, and Walker (19-8) vs. Rockmart (20-7) is one of the top matchups of the first round, featuring two fringe top 10 teams.
Upper-right
As long as Westside (23-4) plays to its potential, it’s hard to see any team in this quadrant coming within double-digits of it. As two-time defending champions, it should be expected that the team enters prepared, locked in and ready to win a third in a row. Westside doesn’t have the same nucleus of the last two seasons, but under coach Jerry Hunter, it’s producing the same results.
If a Westside upset were to occur, the other two ranked teams in the quadrant, No. 7 Union County (21-6) and No. 10 Model (20-7) are the most-likely candidates. They would meet in the second round, with the winner getting Westside in the quarterfinals.
Lower-right
A week ago, Columbia would have seemed a lock to emerge from this bracket. However, it’s here as a No. 2 seed because it lost to Callaway in overtime in the Region 5 championship. Given that Columbia had won all of its region games — including two 5-2A tournament games — by an average of 28.2 points, the Callaway loss seemed unfathomable.
Columbia is still the favorite to reach the Final Four, but it hosts last year’s runner up, unranked Providence Christian (16-10), in Round 1. No. 8 North Cobb Christian (19-6) is the only other ranked team in the quadrant, with Southwest-Macon (15-8) and Laney (13-15) serving as dark horses, in addition to Providence Christian.
GIRLS
Credit: Predictions by Adam Krohn
Credit: Predictions by Adam Krohn
Though Mount Paran can win its third consecutive state title, one of them came in 3A, so it won’t be three-time champions of 2A. That’s semantics for Mount Paran, though. It has been playing on a seemingly higher level than the rest of 2A since it joined the classification, and it’s the overwhelming favorite to win it all again.
Upper-left
All eyes are on Round 2, where it’s expected that No. 3 Central-Macon (23-4) will host No. 4 Thomson (22-4). Central began the season with high hopes, saw two of its top players suffer season-ending injuries, then adapted on the fly to produce a third consecutive season of 20-plus wins. Thomson, like Central, advanced to the quarterfinals last season, and did so mostly with sophomores. They’re still young, but aiming to win now.
Though this quadrant is top-two heavy, nearly all other teams, including No. 9 Columbia (22-5), Sumter County (19-8), Fannin County (18-9), North Cobb Christian (19-8) and Providence Christian have the capability to turn it upside down. Sumter County is No. 9 in the MaxPreps 2A computer rankings.
Lower-left
It’s hard not to look at this quadrant and imagine a rematch between No. 2 Josey and No. 5 Banks County (23-4) which, if it happened, would be the third consecutive year the two have met in the state tournament. That matchup would happen in the quarterfinals this year, and Banks County would host. Banks County beat Josey in last year’s semifinals in Milledgeville, and Josey beat Banks County at home in the second round in 2022.
No. 8 Model (22-5) is the quadrant’s only other ranked team, and it would play at Banks County in Round 2.
Upper-right
No. 6 Butler (19-9) and No. 7 Murray County (21-6) are the only ranked teams in this quadrant, and they wouldn’t meet until the quarterfinals. Though it should come down to these teams, Union County (16-11), Fitzgerald (14-13) and Tattnall County (16-11) are the schools most likely to emerge should an upset occur.
Fitzgerald is a team to keep an eye on. It forfeited its final two games of the Region 3 tournament, and settled for a No. 4 seed as a result. It forfeited because of players being suspended for fighting with Sumter County in the opening round of the 1-2A tournament.
Lower-right
There’s only two ranked teams in this quadrant, but one of them is top-ranked Mount Paran Christian. It won a state title each of the past two seasons, it returns all players from last season, and the expectations are clear. Now it’s just a matter of playing the games to their full capabilities.
Dodge County (21-4) is the other ranked team, at No. 10, and, along with Callaway (23-4), Athens Academy (16-12), Rockmart (17-10), Spencer (19-8) and Washington County (17-12), are teams that could make Mount Paran Christian’s path more challenging.
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