A hypothetical score at a neutral location can be calculated between two teams by adding their offensive and defensive ratings. To account for home advantage, adjust the hypothetical scores in favor of the home team by half of the home advantage.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,244 of 2,444 total games (ignoring ties) (91.82%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game scores within 10.06 points and all game margins within 13.20 points.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Home Advantage: 1.97
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
† - Plays a non-region schedule
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating,” which is the mode of the Extreme Value Type I Distribution (i.e., the Gumbel minimum distribution) applied to the ratings. This calculation favors regions with large numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.