ATHENS — What exactly is Georgia getting in Florida on Saturday in Jacksonville? That’s a question that’s being asked south of the state border as well as north.
Longtime Florida columnist Pat Dooley, who has covered the Gators for decades, said he has had less of a feel for how they might play week-to-week this season than at any other time in his career. He said Billy Napier’s second team continues to surprise him, sometimes in a good way, just as often bad.
“No game has turned out like I thought it would,” said Dooley, who hosts the “Dooley Noted” podcast online every week. “Like, at Utah, I didn’t see a total disaster coming. I didn’t see Florida being too physical for Tennessee. I certainly didn’t see Florida throwing the ball all over South Carolina. Every game has turned out the opposite of what I thought it would be.”
Be warned, Dooley has predicted an easy win for the No. 1-ranked and undefeated Bulldogs (7-0, 4-0 SEC) when they meet Florida on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. at EverBank Stadium on CBS.
As it stands, the Gators (5-2, 3-1) are coming off back-to-back wins over Vanderbilt (38-14) and South Carolina (41-39). That victory over the Gamecocks created some momentum and optimism in the Gators’ camp. It also has plummeted early betting lines that had Georgia posted as a three-touchdown favorite to a skosh over two as of Tuesday.
Florida’s still riding high after its comeback road win over the Gamecocks on Oct. 14. Trailing by 10 points with only 9:11 to play, the Gators rallied behind quarterback Graham Mertz. A senior transfer from Wisconsin, Mertz engineered a pair of 75-yard, fourth-quarter touchdown drives for a the victory.
Mertz, who has an SEC-best completion percentage of 76.2%, completed 30 of 48 passes for 423 yards and three touchdowns in the game. It was the first 400-yard passing performance of his career.
“I think what we’ve learned is ‘(No.) 15′ is a very capable player,” Napier said Monday of his quarterback. “I think when given the opportunity, if we can protect him, if we can create separation, if we can win individual matchups, we’ve got a good designed play, he can get it to the right guy.”
Well, not always.
One of the more critical plays that occurred during the Gators’ comeback came when Mertz missed his intended target. His pass for star wideout Ricky Pearsall on a slant was thrown well behind him. But the ball deflected off of Pearsall’s hands and was caught in stride by Florida receiver Eugene “Trey” Wilson III, who carried it for a 22-yard gain that set up the winning score. The Gators also had a pair of fourth-down conversions during the rally, including a 26-yard completion to Pearsall on fourth-and-10. Pearsall caught the winning 21-yard TD pass with 43 seconds remaining.
Color the Bulldogs impressed.
“They’ve played their best football the last two weeks or so,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said Monday. “Look at the statistics on their quarterback. He’s maybe the No. 1 quarterback in the country for two games in terms of the way he’s played. You can tell he’s got a lot of confidence in their system. They’re able to execute and do a lot of good things with him. He handles it well, makes a lot of run checks for them. He’s done a really nice job of not putting them in harm’s way with his decision making, so they’re playing at a really high level right now and doing a great job with him.”
The Gators’ passing game is built around a solid ground game. Florida running backs Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. average a combined 130 yards per game between them. Slowing them will be priority one for the Bulldogs.
“We pride ourselves in stopping the run, so that’s something we’re going to have to do this week in order to be victorious,” junior safety Javon Bullard said. “The quarterback’s playing at a very high level. Mertz completing 76% of his passes, that’s crazy. We’ve got to do our best to slow him down and dial in on the things we weren’t doing earlier in the season.”
Quarterback play will be a major theme in the lead-up to Saturday’s SEC East confrontation. Both Mertz and Georgia’s Carson Beck will be playing for the first time in the game fans call “the World’s Largest Cocktail Party.”
Beck is, of course, a Jacksonville resident. He also is a one-time Florida commitment – as a baseball pitcher. The expectation is that the 6-foot-4, 220-pound junior’s emotions will be running high playing in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ stadium 18 miles away from his alma mater, Mandarin High School.
Thus far, though, Beck has exhibited a cool demeanor with the Bulldogs and is playing at a high level. Beck’s 73.4% completion percentage ranks second only to Mertz in the SEC, and he has thrown for 2,147 yards, with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. Mertz has 1,897 yards passing, with 12 TDs and two picks.
There are a couple of areas where Georgia appears to have an edge. Florida quarterbacks have been sacked 19 times. That’s more than three times the number allow by the Bulldogs (6). Also, Georgia has been incredibly good on third downs, both on offense and defense.
The Bulldogs lead the nation in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert only 23.6% of the time. In their past three SEC contests, Georgia’s foes are a combined 6-for-32 (18.8%). Conversely, the Bulldogs’ offensive conversion rate on football’s most important down is 57.1%. That ranks No. 2 in the nation.
Florida’s offense is 27-of-81 (33%) on third downs. Its defense is a stout 29% (23-of-78) on third downs.
On defense, the Gators are in their first year under coordinator Austin Armstrong. A former quality-control analyst at Georgia (2019), it should come as no surprise that Florida mirrors the Bulldogs in a lot of ways on defense.
Neither team has created a lot of “havoc,” which is the football term for sacks, pressures and turnovers. The Gators have only two interceptions and two fumble recoveries this season. For comparison’s sake, Georgia still hasn’t recovered a fumble, but has recorded nine interceptions. The Bulldogs’ turnover margin is even, while Florida comes in at minus-2.
But what the Gators are doing on defense is a significant improvement over a year ago. Giving up 20 points per game, that ranks 31st in FBS and represents an improvement of 8.9 points per game. Through seven games, Florida was allowing 429.3 yards per game last season. That’s down to 312.3 this season.
“Ultimately, we’d like to take the ball away a little bit more,” Napier said. “Tackling at times has been an issue on our team. I think overall gap integrity relative to fundamentals, line of scrimmage, edges, those are some of the areas we’ve worked hard for three practices last week.”
Special teams is an interesting matchup. Because of early mishaps and misses, the Gators turned to backup kicker Trey Smack. He’s 11-of-12 on field-goal attempts since then, with a long kick of 54 yards. Similarly, Georgia freshman Peyton Woodring missed three of his first seven attempts, including two inside 30 yards, but has been good on his past eight. Pearsall and Etienne are considered two of the SEC’s better returners, as is Georgia’s Mekhi Mews.
The Bulldogs have dominated the series of late, winning five of the past six, by an average margin of 22 points. Last year’s 42-20 Georgia victory was reflective of the current run.
It’s reminiscent of what the Gators were doing to Georgia under coach Steve Spurrier in the 1990s.
It’s probably no coincidence, then, that Spurrier was at Florida’s practice Monday and spoke to the team. No harm in trying to recapture some old magic, right?
Dooley, for one, was unmoved.
“This is one where I think I know what’s going to happen, but who knows?” said Dooley, a Florida alumnus. “I haven’t been right yet. Maybe that’s why I picked Georgia.”
About the Author
