This is the time when the average Atlanta sports fan thinks, “So where’s he going because he sure ain’t coming here?”
It’s the natural default position. This is the home of fizzled Octobers, and Januarys, and Junes (depending on what pro team is being laid to rest.) Elite athletes chase the money, but they also chase titles, and as you probably have noticed, Atlanta isn’t victory-parade central. So they look elsewhere.
Which leads me to the Hawks. General manager Danny Ferry is busy these days preparing for Thursday’s NBA draft. With the Hawks picking only 15th in the first round, barring a trade, it stands to reason he will get a good player but not a great one. If the Hawks hope to land “great” this offseason, they will need to exceed the norm for Atlanta sports franchises and work miracles in free agency with LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony.
Anthony told the New York Knicks this week that he was exercising the “early termination” option in his contract. Then Tuesday, Twitter melted with the news that James was opting out. It was devastating news for so many Miami Heat fans, who’ve been pretty hard core for at least five or 10 minutes.
There has been at least one report, which ESPN.com attributed to well-placed unicorns, indicating the Hawks are “mulling potential trades designed to clear enough cap space” to bring both James and Anthony here.
I remember reading once that the odds of winning the lottery were about one in 175 million. The Hawks’ odds are better than that. I think.
Thirty teams would want James (sources say). I’m not sure 30 teams would want Anthony, but the Hawks should be in the affirmative. He can score (career average: 25.3 points). He wants to win. He’s a good guy. It’s reasonable to wonder if a shooter like Anthony could fit into the Hawks’ share-the-ball, system, but it would be wrong to assume he can’t.
Here’s the issue: When it comes to elite players, the question is not whether you want them, but whether they want you. Are the Hawks at the point where players want them?
Short answer: Probably not. Ferry and coach Mike Budenholzer have done a nice job of tearing the team down and building it back up in a short amount of time. They are rebuilding previously torched bridges with a fan base that was uninterested in a never-going-anywhere franchise or incensed at a dysfunctional and disingenuous ownership group. Or both.
Players, and their agents, no doubt have taken notice in the Hawks’ improvement and how they nearly pulled off a first-round upset over No. 1-seeded Indiana despite being undermanned and undersized. But it usually takes more than that for elite players to say, “Let’s go there.”
Odds favor James and Anthony not going anywhere. In the NBA’s free-agency system, players can make more money re-signing with their current team. James’ deal with Miami (five years, $115 million) would be $29 million more than with another team (four years, $86 million). Anthony’s deal in New York (five years, $129 million) would be $33 million more than with another team (four years, $96 million).
Anthony is higher on the pay scale than James because LeBron took less than max money when he went to Miami. That’s also why LeBron was forced to take a second job in the offseason. (That was a joke.)
The Hawks would take anybody elite. They need talent. But let’s consider the principles of the two dream sequences:
James: It makes no sense for him to leave Miami. Opting out is about leverage. The Heat were smoked by San Antonio in the finals, and James wants the organization to improve the cast around him. He reportedly is concerned owner Micky Arison has curbed spending over the past year, and this allows him to explore options while Miami forms a plan.
Anthony: Other than money, the only reason to stay in New York is because he's buying whatever Phil Jackson is selling. The team stinks. Anthony might prefer Chicago, Houston or Miami over the Hawks. But Ferry, with movable contracts, could make this deal work better than most teams. The Hawks also could do a sign-and-trade with the Knicks and still have an impressive core with some remaining combination of Jeff Teague, Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver.
But making the numbers work is the easy part. Convincing great players to think of Atlanta as something other than a road trip is the challenge. Then again, somebody has to win the lottery.
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