Braves right-hander Matt Wisler was in danger of turning in his third consecutive lousy start Thursday, and against the only lousy opponent he’d faced during that stretch. The Reds started off single, walk, RBI single, and after a half inning the Braves were down 1-0 and Wisler had thrown 22 pitches.
The Braves couldn’t afford another Wisler meltdown. They’d played 13 innings over nearly 5 1/2 hours the night before. His teammates were tired. It was a hot afternoon. The bullpen was beat up.
“That first inning I was like, ‘Man, come on ‘Matty’, we are short’,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said.
Then something clicked for Wisler. He had little trouble over the next 5 2/3 innings, save for Adam Duvall’s solo homer. The Braves went on to a 7-2 victory.
What changed for Wisler? Essentially, the 23-year old pitcher started listening to his 39-year old catcher.
“I finally started getting out of my head,” Wisler said. “I stopped thinking so much. I trusted A.J. (Pierzynski) and whatever (sign) he put down, I started throwing. I went after guys the way I should be.”
Learning those kind of lessons will determine if Wisler will become a good major league pitcher. The same goes for Mike Foltynewicz, Aaron Blair and Tyrell Jenkins. The same will be true for the rest of the Braves’ bumper crop of pitching prospects when they get the call.
The Braves have built a foundation on accumulating pitching prospects. It’s a sound approach, but the most important part of the equation is picking the right players. That’s not easy.
“Sabermetrician” Matt Perez analyzed the outcomes for Baseball America’s top 100 prospects from 1990-2006 and concluded that three out of four top pitching prospects failed. They weren’t just disappointing or average. They flopped.
Wisler and Foltynewicz both were BA top 100 prospects before they broke into the bigs. Jenkins, recently promoted to pitch in the bullpen, once was on the list and so was minor leaguer Lucas Sims. Blair is on the latest top 100 prospect list along with three other pitchers in the pipeline: Sean Newcomb, Kolby Allard and Touki Toussaint.
The Braves would do well to get two legitimate big-league pitchers from that bunch. Once prospects reach the majors, there are some clues as to whether they will stick around. A study by Scott Van Lanten of FanGraphs identified strikeout rate, fastball velocity and strikeout rate minus walk rate as the three strongest predictors of future Wins Above Replacement.
That makes sense. Strikeouts and walks are within a pitcher’s control, and high velocity coupled with good command can mean more K’s and fewer walks. Keeping a ball out of play (and in the park) and runners off of the base paths are the best ways for pitchers to increase their chance of success.
Foltynewicz, who is on the Braves’ disabled list, definitely has the velocity: 95 mph on average for his fastball this season. But his strikeout rate has remained about average after 128 2/3 innings pitched. “Folty’s” walk rate has decreased significantly, though, so there’s hope.
Wisler’s average two-seam fastball velocity (92.7 mph) is good. After 192 innings pitched, his K rate is below average and his walk rate is above average, but both are moving in the right direction. Wisler has three good off-speed pitches. There’s a lot to like.
Blair is the Braves’ No. 2 pitching prospect, according to BA, and he was touted as close to big-league ready when they acquired him in December 2015. He’s looked over-matched in nine starts, but he hasn’t pitched enough to draw many conclusions.
Blair still can learn some lessons, the way Wisler did against the Reds. If he never figures it out, maybe Wisler, Foltynewicz or Jenkins will. And if not those three, maybe two or three will pan out from among the other pitching prospects on the farm.
The Braves are betting their future on it.
