On April 1, had the Braves known that Memorial Day would arrive with Dan Uggla hitting under .200 and B.J. Upton under .150; with Jason Heyward having missed 3 1/2 weeks and with their three best setup men on the disabled list … well, they would have been happy to be within five games of the ballyhooed Washington Nationals.
That the season’s first holiday checkpoint dawned with the Braves holding first place in the National League East by 4 1/2 games over those Nats would have seemed, at least back then, too good to be true. Yet there it was: The Braves awoke Monday on pace to win 99 games. But now we ask: Do their numbers suggest that they will in fact wind up 99-63?
Offensively, no. The Braves rank 22nd in the majors in batting average, 14th in on-base percentage and runs, 16th in hitting with runners in scoring position. Given that there are 30 big-league clubs, these are marks of mediocrity.
There are, however, three categories in which the Braves are exceptional. They’re good at hitting the ball over the wall (second in the majors in home runs). They’re good at reaching base without hitting the ball (fourth in walks). They’re also good, if that’s the word, at not hitting the ball at all (second in strikeouts).
The sabermetric set refers to homers, walks and whiffs as the Three True Outcomes, all else being subject to the vagaries of the sport. The 2013 Braves are the classic TTO team. This approach can have obvious success — home runs are the game’s greatest weapon — but we’ve seen what happens when the Braves don’t hit homers. They’ve been shut out six times; in none of their 20 losses have they scored more than five runs.
They aren’t the sort of team that exerts inning-to-inning pressure by generating a slew of base runners. They strike out too often for that. The Braves’ brand of pressure comes in the threat of late-inning lightning, which the folk hero Evan Gattis has made his stock in legend.
The Braves haven’t been as good on offense as they should be. The return of Heyward and Brian McCann, two Braves who can be productive without hitting home runs, figures to bolster that. Still, the Braves make too many soft outs — those strikeouts again — to sustain a relentless attack. Which isn’t to say they won’t score enough runs to win 99 games. They will if their pitching holds.
For all the offseason emphasis on the everyday eight, the Braves are where they are because of pitching. Their starters’ ERA ranks fifth-best in the majors; their bullpen’s is fourth-best. (The numbers for both parties took a hit, as it were, Monday night. Those American League lineups can have that effect.) Given that pitching comprises either 75 or 90 percent of baseball — the number varies according to the assessor — being good at it could be taken as an indicator of greater glory. But can this staff, as comprised, go the distance?
The Braves’ starters rank only 17th in strikeouts. In and of itself, the strikeout can be overrated. Still, the absence of strikeouts underscores what we see on a nightly basis: This rotation has to win with finesse. About here, you’re saying: “Hey, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine won 300 games with finesse.” My counterpoint: Do you see a Maddux or a Glavine among this crew?
Brandon Beachy, scheduled to return next month, could become a key figure. He’s more of a power pitcher than Kris Medlen or Paul Maholm. Question is, who’ll move to make rotational room? Surely not Medlen, who didn’t lose as a starter last season. Definitely not Tim Hudson, a starter all his big-league life, or Mike Minor, terrific the past 12 months. Probably not Julio Teheran, who’s showing what the fuss was about. But would an off-speed specialist like Maholm be half as effective in relief?
The epic collapse of September 2011 occurred because a team that couldn’t score many runs lost two starting pitchers and thereby ladled an even heavier burden on worn-to-a-frazzle relievers. This season could produce a backward effect: A bullpen without Eric O’Flaherty and Jonny Venters — and, for the moment, Jordan Walden — could force Fredi Gonzalez to stick with his starters longer to debilitating effect all around.
As of Monday morning, the new setup men had blown three saves in five games. Twice the Braves won anyway, but still: If the bullpen falters, the team will follow. Walden needs to return and be really good. Frank Wren needs to find another left-hander. For all the teeth-gnashing over the strikeouts and the debate as to how Gattis should be deployed, the fate of the 2013 Braves will hinge on whether anybody can get the game to Craig Kimbrel.
