Atlanta United must defeat not only some very good MLS teams if it hopes to make the playoffs in its inaugural season, it must also stare down history.
With 47 points from 30 games, Seattle was the last expansion team to make the playoffs in its inaugural season. That happened in 2009. Since then, Philadelphia, Vancouver, Portland, Montreal, New York City and Orlando have come online, tried and failed.
The supporters of Atlanta United’s team have made it known that, based upon owner Arthur Blank’s proclamation three years ago when the franchise was awarded that it would be competitive, they think big things are coming. Quickly.
“It makes us happy that people have such high expectations,” manager Gerardo Martino said. “Our job is to try to meet those expectations for the city.”
The good news for club supporters in groups such as Terminus Legion, Footie Mob, Faction and Resurgence, and the rest of those who are expected to sell out Sunday’s opener against the New York Red Bulls at Georgia Tech is that the math is in the team’s favor: Six of the 11 teams in each of the league’s two conferences will make the postseason.
The bad news are the issues that have affected the attempts of previous expansion teams are still there, bearing down on Atlanta United like a knuckling free kick.
Those issues include the fact that most of the team’s coaching staff have never competed in MLS. The roster includes 19 players who have never played in MLS, though 14 have first-division experience in other countries. It takes time to build chemistry and understanding of strategies and tactics.
“I once had a coach tell me that you put together a roster, and every single player has their own way that they view the game,” midfielder Jacob Peterson said. “But when you come together, everybody has to adapt to the way the head coach adapts to the game. It’s not a quick fix.
“It’s trying to find the right balance to find the high-profile guys that are difference-makers. Most of those guys are new to the league. Then there’s the MLS guys who know the grind of the season.”
Then there are the logistical and environmental issues of playing in MLS. Unlike any other league except perhaps in China, the travel of crossing three time zones can be brutal. Games will switch between being played on grass, which the players prefer, and turf, which many don’t. There is heat. There is humidity. There is the language barrier for some players and coaches.
The players also aren’t familiar with the cities, the stadium, the opponents, or even their own city. Most have spent the month just getting to know their own teammates and the opponents they will face in the four preseason games in which the team went 3-1.
Adrian Heath, now coach of Minnesota United, the other expansion team starting this season, was the coach of Orlando City when it started in 2015. The Lions finished with 44 points, five short of the sixth and final spot in the playoffs.
Heath said it was difficult for one of the younger teams to get embedded into a football philosophy and new city. Visas needed to be secured. Families needed to find homes and be moved.
“It was an incredible amount of work in a short period of town,” Heath said.
Heath said Minnesota United has worked to take those responsibilities away from the players so that they can focus mostly on football and the team. Atlanta United also is trying to do as much as possible to help the players and families transition into metro Atlanta.
“We are trying to make players feel a part of the team, but their families as well,” President Darren Eales said during the team’s training camp in February.
Atlanta United will benefit from changes that the league made for acquiring players this season that previous expansion teams couldn’t take advantage of. The expansion draft was limited to five rounds, instead of 10, which means that the expansion teams aren’t going to be left with a lot of players who weren’t wanted by their previous teams. After trades, Atlanta United selected four players who should contribute this season.
The two expansion teams were also give more Targeted Allocation Money to sign players. Atlanta United signed several exciting players from South America with some of those funds, as well as using its three Designated Players spots on young players with potential from Argentina, Paraguay and Venezuela.
Lastly, there is free agency, which started before the 2016 season. Peterson and Jeff Larentowicz are two league veterans signed by the club. Both are expected to contribute.
Fox TV analyst Stu Holden called Atlanta United “an automatic contender for playoffs.”
If the issues can be solved, or at least partially solved, the target for the team is likely to win at least 40 points (three for wins, one for ties, zero for losses). The sixth-place team in the Eastern Conference last season earned the last spot in the playoffs with 42 points from 34 games.
Making the playoffs will be a challenge, but not an impossible one.
“I don’t think Atlanta United is like any other expansion team,” team captain Michael Parkhurst said. “The way they’ve set themselves up on and off the field is just a lot different than their predecessors, so I think the expectations on the field are different as well.”
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